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The U.S. Military Doesn’t Think China Is Getting Ready to Invade Taiwan

China Won't Invade Taiwan
Image: Creative Commons.

Even as tensions continue to ramp up between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait, a top U.S. general is doing his part to quell concerns that a potential all-out war could break out in the near future.

General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday that China likely won’t try to militarily seize the island nation of Taiwan within the next couple of years.

“Based on my analysis of China, I don’t think that it is likely in the near future—being defined as, you know, six, twelve, maybe twenty-four months, that kind of window,” he noted, per Reuters.

“Having said that, though, the Chinese are clearly and unambiguously building the capability to provide those options to the national leadership if they so choose at some point in the future. But near future? Probably not. But anything can happen,” he added.

Chinese Incursions

However, despite such an outlook, there have been plenty of reports of Chinese incursions into Taiwanese airspace and waters in recent weeks. For example, during Taiwan’s recently held National Day, approximately one hundred fifty Chinese aircraft were seen overhead as a likely warning to Taiwan’s leader Tsai Ing-wen, who long has been adamant that her country “will do whatever it takes to defend itself.”

In an article published by Foreign Affairs, Tsai admitted that she fears there would be “catastrophic consequences” if a war were to break out between the two countries. Taiwan “hopes for peaceful, stable, predictable, and mutually beneficial coexistence with its neighbors. But if its democracy and way of life are threatened, Taiwan will do whatever it takes to defend itself,” she added.

Dangers of War

According to a piece published in the Economist, a war between China and Taiwan would indeed be “a catastrophe,” mainly because of the “bloodshed in Taiwan” but also the increasing risk of “escalation between two nuclear powers” that are the United States and China.

“Beijing massively outguns Taiwan, with estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showing that China spends about twenty-five times more on its military. However, Taiwan has a defense pact with the U.S. dating back to the 1954 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, meaning the U.S. could, in theory, be drawn into the conflict,” The Week writes.

Furthermore, in a recent op-ed published in the Guardian, Daniel Davis, a former lieutenant colonel with the U.S. Army, warned of a possible “nuclear exchange” if a war eventually breaks out.

“Before war comes to the Indo-Pacific and Washington faces pressure to fight a potentially existential war, American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat—and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war,” he writes.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.

Written By

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV.



  1. May Nard

    November 4, 2021 at 11:46 am

    Looks like either Miley has lost his mind or the Chinese have “greased his palm” rather well, or both. I’m thinking both.

  2. Jim Otterman

    November 4, 2021 at 11:53 am

    This is the same military that said the Taliban was months away from taking over the country.

  3. David Burgess

    November 4, 2021 at 2:52 pm

    Yeah, the military didn’t think the Japanese would attack Pearl Harbor either.

  4. Rob

    November 4, 2021 at 4:19 pm

    It’s really nice that the Communist Party Dictators can use Milley as their spokesman. But haven’t these communists lied to the world before?

  5. TrustbutVerify

    November 4, 2021 at 4:54 pm

    I think that pretty much guarantees that China will be invading soon, based on how well they predicted Afghanistan.

  6. jackbenimble333

    November 4, 2021 at 7:30 pm

    Our newest female admiral has massive testicles. You can bet that puts the fear of God in the chicoms. /sarc

  7. Wayne H Frazier

    November 4, 2021 at 7:32 pm

    you could have stopped the headline at; “The U.S. Military Doesn’t Think….”

  8. Frank M.

    November 5, 2021 at 12:41 am

    What a buffoon. Sure, if Milley says they won’t, must mean it’s imminent. We currently have more flag officers vs the WW2 military when we had approximately 20M men under arms. And what’s with all the medals these posers have? Considering our track record of late its comical.

  9. George R. Flinn

    November 5, 2021 at 6:18 am

    Milley is only interested in acquiescence to China and whichever ends it deems appropriate.

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