The war in Ukraine is slowly sapping the strength of the Russian armed forces. How bad will things get for Moscow?
It has been over 200 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Friday, the Ukrainian counteroffensives proceed as the Russian forces are trying to stem the flow.
The war in Ukraine
In the east, the Ukrainian military is pushing in two directions. First, the Ukrainians are pushing from Kupyansk in the northeastern part of the Kharkiv province toward Svatove, another major railway and supply hub. Farther down the contact line, the Ukrainians are pushing towards Kreminna from the recently captured Lyman.
The Ukrainian military is now back where it was in the middle of the summer when it fought brutal battles against the Russian forces for the twin cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, which are respectively located in the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces that Russia supposedly annexed last week. The loss of the two cities would be another major blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s and the Kremlin’s narrative about the war.
In the south, the Russian forces are trying to set up hasty defensive lines to stem the Ukrainian onslaught that has managed to liberate hundreds of square miles of territory in just a few days.
Russian casualties
Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,200 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
Furthermore, more recent reports citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 60,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.
In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.
Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.
As of Friday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
61,680 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
5,093 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
3,862 vehicles and fuel tanks
2,466 tanks
1,455 artillery pieces
1,067 tactical unmanned aerial systems
266 fighter, attack, and transport jets
344 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
233 attack and transport helicopters
246 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
177 anti-aircraft batteries
135 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
What Happens Next
For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.
Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.
Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture in July. For most of August, the heaviest fighting took place in the Donbas, where the Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to breach the Ukrainian defenses and capture the Donetsk province. But lately, most of the fighting has shifted to the south where the Ukrainian military is mounting a major counteroffensive to recapture Kherson. It is now there, on the southern front, that the Russian military is suffering the heaviest casualties.
On Friday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Kramatorsk, which is located in the central Donbas, and in the vicinity of Avdiivka, and close to Kryvyi Rih.
Russian main battle tank T-90M Proryv destroyed by Ukrainian Armed Forces is seen near the village of Staryi Saltiv, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, in Kharkiv region, Ukraine May 9, 2022. Picture taken May 9, 2022. REUTERS/Vitalii Hnidyi.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
Expert Biography: Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is currently working towards a Master’s Degree in Strategy and Cybersecurity at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
