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The Real Reason Donald Trump Won’t Win in 2024

Donald Trump
By Gage Skidmore: President of the United States Donald Trump speaking at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland.

Surely Donald J. Trump has a lot of problems he will need to work through if he is going to win not only the GOP nomination in 2024 but, ultimately, the White House. However, his biggest problem – and why he might not win in 2024 is easy to see: he never learns from his mistakes. 

Presidents often learn from their mistakes and evolve over time.

Franklin D. Roosevelt tried to pack the Supreme Court and then let his foot off the gas and rescinded.

John F. Kennedy led a failed invasion of Cuba known as the Bay of Pigs. He publicly apologized and never tried this kind of folly again.

Lyndon B. Johnson looked at his political demise and decided not to run again.

Bill Clinton lost his first midterm election and famously governed from the middle using his brand of governing evolution called triangulation by finding the middle lane in American politics.

Donald Trump Is Obstinate, to Say the Least

Donald Trump was different during his presidency. The more mistakes he made, the more he refused to change. There was no evolution or governing from the center.

I cannot recall a time when he apologized during his presidency. He never admitted a loss. Even a partisan like Barack Obama was introspective during his midterm election disaster, saying he and the Democrats got a “shellacking” in 2010. Obama was reportedly humbled and said he needed to do a better job.

Give Peace a Chance and Admit You Are Wrong

The American people sometimes prefer a president to make amends. George W. Bush was punished for once answering a question about what he regretted during his presidency. He thought a bit but admitted no faults. Many Americans wanted him to apologize for the invasion of Iraq, but Bush later conceded mistakes he made after his presidency.

Not Forgiven for January 6

The worst moment of Trump’s presidency has to be the January 6 insurrection. This was the time that America needed the most healing. Trump could have admitted he made a mistake by fanning the flames of the violent and deadly protest at the Capitol.

He instead doubled down and did not take responsibility for his actions leading to his second impeachment.

At Least Admit Some Fault for the First Impeachment

The first impeachment could have been a time for Donald Trump to be contrite. All he needed to say was that if he had to do the phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over again, he would not have encouraged Zelenskyy to investigate the Biden family.

Maybe an apology would not have helped against rabid Congressional Democrats, but it could have helped him with the American public.

No Need to Fear a Public Bloodletting

Many Americans who observe politics know there are ups and downs in any presidency. They know that mistakes can be made, and they are often ready to forgive. In other countries, especially in East Asian nations such as Japan, politicians can take this to extremes. After a political scandal, the leader will not only apologize, but the person will stand in front of the media and bow in shame, and then resign. Some guilty Japanese politicians have cried in front of the cameras. This is taking the apology too far, but it shows that some cultures want the guilty politicians to admit they are wrong and quit in shame.

Trump: No Evolution or Lessons Learned

Could Trump have evolved more during his presidency? Changing behavior is just not in Trump’s DNA. He is a pugilist who looks at politics as a death struggle against his enemies. These can be from his own party, not to mention those in the media and members of the Democrat party.

Does He Not Care About His Legacy?

What does Trump want to be remembered for?

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, he looked to be ready for re-election. The economy was healthy. Unemployment was historically low. The country was mostly at peace aside from the war in Afghanistan that was leading toward conclusion.

But America felt like it was coming apart too, especially during the coronavirus scare. Trump could have become a healer, but that was never in the cards.

He Can’t Admit to Wrongdoing

Contrition during and after his impeachments were opportunities for Trump to learn lessons and convince the American people that he could take responsibility and admit he was wrong. This could have gone a long way to help his legacy, even though he appeared to never care much about his legacy.

Maybe one day, especially if he loses re-election again, he can become introspective and examine mistakes in his presidency and wish he would have handled them differently. Even Nixon admitted he let the country down during Watergate.

Trump has shown that he doesn’t learn and doesn’t adjust from mistakes. He will likely be remembered for those faults.

MORE: Is Donald Trump a ‘Cognitive Mess’? 

MORE: Should Joe Biden Really Run in 2024? 

MORE: Ron DeSantis May Peak Too Early

Now serving as 19FortyFive’s Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer.

Written By

Now serving as 1945s New Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer.



  1. Whodunnit

    January 12, 2023 at 6:56 am

    A fairly long article that could have been reduced to one line – Voters have seen through his BS.

  2. R J Koon

    January 14, 2023 at 11:27 pm

    The awful truth is, the left and their media mouthpieces starting undermining the Trump administration before he was sworn into office and they haven’t stopped hounding him yet.

    If Biden had accompished ANYTHING comparable to Trump’s record he would get another Noble participation prize like Obama did and the left would enshrine him as the man of the century.

    Democrats are vile contemptible creatures with no intention of making life better for regular citizens. They promote descension between races, social classes, and sexual orientation to create the fog of war in our society so that citizens can’t concentrate on the third world living conditions they have created EVERWHERE they govern.

  3. Marsha

    January 18, 2023 at 11:07 pm

    After the Freedom Kaka takes over (and they will, McCarthy just gave away the store — and quite literally, Speaker of the House office, too) let’s hear you say that again — and still mean it.

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