How Donald Trump Could Get Crushed in 2024: I have been watching U.S. politics up close here in Washington, D.C., for a decade now, and one thing rings true above all else for me – it is common sense but worth repeating.
When people ask which candidate will win or get crushed in a presidential election, I always go back to one thing my mentor and friend, Dr. William Martel – a wise professor at the Fletcher School who advised Mitt Romney, who sadly passed back in 2015 – always said to me:
“Americans always vote with their wallet. Forget ideology or anything else. If the economy is good, the incumbent has a great shot at winning back the White House.
Look at Bob Dole in 1996 and Mitt Romney back in 2012. Both ran strong campaigns and had a certain appeal. Any yet, it was always going to be a tough fight as the economy was always a bright spot for both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
If Americans feel good financially or at least stable, the incumbent will win. Bottom line.”
And with the recent jobs numbers that just came out – despite some really big interest rate hikes – it seems the U.S. economy somehow is moving ahead.
And that spells trouble for Donald Trump or whoever wins the 2024 GOP nomination to take on Joe Biden.
Right now, I do think it will be Donald Trump as the GOP is MAGA and can’t get away from his tough guy, no BS charm.
However, if the economy holds and maybe even gets better – which I think is more likely than a recession – why would the American people, by and large, want to mess that up?
As one GOP consultant who worked for Donald Trump in various polling capacities told me:
“From an economic standpoint, a lot is going right now for Joe Biden – and that matters. Gas prices are way off those highs a few months ago. Inflation is dropping and could be under control in a few months. Jobs are plentiful in many industries, despite some high-profile cuts. COVID-19 looks like it is finally in the rearview mirror. If the fed can engineer a soft landing and keep interest rate hikes very low and stop them soon, it seems Joe Biden could have a strong economy to claim as his legacy,” he explained.
Now, to be fair, there is a long time between now and 2024, but if Joe Biden does indeed have an excellent economy to claim as his most outstanding achievement, I say he is impossible to beat.
Forget about those classified documents or all of those so-called ‘senior moments’. I think the American people would pick a strong economy and a president who might not be as sharp as he once was, as opposed to the crazy Donald Trump they fear.
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Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) serves as President and CEO of Rogue States Project, a bipartisan national security think tank. He has held senior positions at the Center for the National Interest, the Heritage Foundation, the Potomac Foundation, and many other think tanks and academic institutions focused on defense issues. He served on the Russia task force for U.S. Presidential Candidate Senator Ted Cruz, and in a similar task force in the John Hay Initiative. His ideas have been published in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, CNN, CNBC, and many other outlets across the political spectrum. He holds a graduate degree in International Relations from Harvard University and is the author of The Tao of A2/AD, a study of Chinese military modernization. Kazianis also has a background in defense journalism, having served as Editor-In-Chief at The Diplomat and Executive Editor for the National Interest.
Lily
February 4, 2023 at 8:33 pm
Sir, great article. I TOTALLY agree with it. Thanks for your insight.
Sheila Plourde
February 4, 2023 at 9:19 pm
This writer must have money. Does he grocery shop because the prices are very high and gas is high where I live. Inflation is alive and well and there are a lot of people where I live that cannot find a job. Nothing is getting better for the citizens that don’t have money. We are on a fixed income so it is not easy. Propane is through the roof and we need it up here in the Sierra’s. Not capping on the article but Biden best no win this time. You are right about Trump. It isn’t getting better there are a lot of people suffering up here.