One of the most forgotten aspects of the 2024 GOP primary season is what happens to Donald Trump if he gets charged with something in the next few months. And considering the fact that there are so many investigations against Trump at the moment, I am going to guess charges are coming.
What happens after he gets charged?
While there have been countless articles speculating on the charges and cases that Donald Trump is now facing, there is very little analysis of what the GOP party machinery and insider reaction will be as well as from the MAGA base that supports Trump if charges come.
My gut instinct from watching GOP politics and insiders from my perch here in DC for roughly a decade is if Trump is charged it will be a total mess.
Not only will it mean his likely political demise, but a war will begin inside the GOP on what to do with him.
And it could be historic.
First, let me break down why I think he would be doomed.
While Donald Trump would still retain a massive MAGA following, he would lose some of that following if he is charged with a crime. While some support will drop off, it won’t be enough to deny him the GOP nomination but his political fortunes in a general election could be mortally wounded. A path for a Trump general election victory is already going to be hard slog – he can’t afford to lose any voters. 2020 proved that to be true.
All of that means Joe Biden would have no issue beating Trump. To be clear, there is no way Donald Trump can win an electoral college victory if he is in court fighting to stay out of jail – I just can’t see him getting the votes needed to make it happen.
Would you vote for someone who is facing jail time for president? The optics make no sense. It doesn’t pass any sort of common sense sniff test.
But perhaps the most interesting aspect of Trump getting charged is what happens inside the machinery of the GOP itself that runs the party day to day and what GOP insiders think.
When Donald Trump won in 2016, the vast majority of the RNC/GOP/Evangelicals that had issues with Trump just buried their feelings deep down – they wanted to get their Supreme Court justices installed and did what they could and stacked the Trump Administration with conservatives that could shape his presidency – and that largely worked.
When I worked at Heritage during the GOP primary, I can tell you there was a deep divide on how to feel about Trump and whether to support him or not. The debates in the building got pretty heated – but as they say, winning papers over any problems.
Here is where things get interesting. You can already see cracks in support for Donald Trump already in the GOP establishment – Nikki Haley would not be out of the gate running already if she did not think she could win (despite what I think, ha).
The second he gets charged – if he does get charged – you will start to see the GOP start to turn on Trump. And if those allegations are serious, it could be a pretty significant group of GOP insiders who will do all they can to try and deny him the nomination – and the big-money donors could walk as well. It could be the 2024 equivalent of the Hollywood Access tape scandal – but with a far big impact.
If Ron DeSantis was smart, he would try to snatch up all of that support and craft a campaign that is populist and MAGA to the core, but states that we can’t have a 2024 Presidental candidate that is facing jail time. He would not have to attack Trump – just state the obvious.
How would Trump fight that fact? He can’t.
Then the real wild card: how does the rock-solid Trump MAGA base by and large respond to Trump getting charged? Do they come out screaming for a third-party run by Trump (and, of course, handing the election to Joe Biden)?
Bottom line: if Donald Trump gets charged with a crime, 2024 will be the most interesting presidential election ever.
My gut says Donald Trump would be at his end – but how much carnage comes with those words? Get the popcorn ready.
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Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive and serves as President and CEO of Rogue States Project, a bipartisan national security think tank. He has held senior positions at the Center for the National Interest, the Heritage Foundation, the Potomac Foundation, and many other think tanks and academic institutions focused on defense issues. He served on the Russia task force for U.S. Presidential Candidate Senator Ted Cruz, and in a similar role in the John Hay Initiative. His ideas have been published in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, CNN, CNBC, and many other outlets across the political spectrum. He holds a graduate degree in International Relations from Harvard University and is the author of the book The Tao of A2/AD, a study of Chinese military modernization. Kazianis also has a background in defense journalism, having served as Editor-In-Chief at The Diplomat and Executive Editor for the National Interest.
Rick English
February 19, 2023 at 1:00 pm
“It doesn’t pass any sort of common sense sniff test.” How this pompous, self-serving blowhard has such broad support defies any sort of common sense sniff test. He has such a history of sacrificing anybody and anyone to further his own selfish interests, much less for his own survival, it’s a wonder he has even one loyal follower.
Bill
February 19, 2023 at 3:13 pm
Wow, this article was written by a horribly inflicted TDS propagandist! “Voting for Trump would defy all logic”?? But voting for a second Biden term makes sense in ANY way?
Mario
February 21, 2023 at 11:58 am
trump is nothing more than a criminal
Brian
February 25, 2023 at 12:15 am
TDS IS REAL! #45 lives rent free in millions of empty skulls and its hilarious!
Roman Brown
February 25, 2023 at 5:55 am
I am guessing there is more Ego at hand rather than work ethic. While staying within a mutual understanding that you’d wanna grab… the Karen/Karon award with the camera record button on demand, there is, still a “Guy Code!”
Paul
February 25, 2023 at 3:46 pm
DJT is more concerned with the grift he has been using to suck out money from his MAGA supporters. They pay his legal bills and will get nothing in return. If he wins the nomination, he will give Biden all the ammunition he needs to defeat him, especially if he is indicted. DJT is carrying way too much baggage. Save your money you will never get it back in the unlikely event of a political victory.
bill Reed
February 26, 2023 at 12:22 am
The only presidential candidate ever elected who actually did what he said he’d do. A leader who convinced the rabid muhammedan palestinians to agree to talk with the Jews. A top-shelf businessman elected to run the biggest business on earth, the USA. And doing a fine job of it, in spite of the swamp dwellers mightiest efforts to sabotage his every effort. I think his comment that we need to drain the swamp really touched a lot of nerves , and ignited the firestorm of blind/ignorant hatred that consumed the left.
If the American people actually preferred basementJoe and actually voted him in, then we deserve what we’re getting. His behavior is nothing short of treason, Abandoning billions worth of weaponry in Afghanistan, along with all our afghan interpreters and allies. Destroying our border , and inviting the whole world to violate our country. banning petroleum powered everything.
Greg
February 26, 2023 at 4:32 am
If you all believe what you are saying here, then it is obvious you are going with a fictional opinion of your own idea of what is good for this once great country rather than the real history of facts that made this country great. There seems to be a jealous hatred toward the political party that puts America first no matter who becomes president. Open your ears and listen. Open your eyes, look around and see what is really going on before you open your mouth, because some people just might believe the nonsense that you all are publishing here. Oh, and let us not forget to ignore who should have been indicted many years ago, but it is too late now, He is the president!
Jeff Smith
February 27, 2023 at 6:13 am
It’s amazing how stupid the American people have become listening to all the left wing BS (main stream media spreading lies). There is no Democrat or Republican party anymore, only left wing communist and those who support freedom. If you support the communist, then get the hell out of this country because you hate freedom. For those who love freedom, stand your ground and tell the communist to get the hell out of America – we don’t need your ideology.
Gary T
February 28, 2023 at 9:26 am
Regardless of what happens to Trump, real, God trusting Americans will vote Republican in the 2024 presidential election. Four more years of leftist controlled Democratic Party tyranny will destroy America!
Paul Smith
February 28, 2023 at 11:44 pm
I am with Bill Reed. Jeff Smith, and Gary T.
Pay attention Americans. If you vote Democrate in 2024 and they get in, our country is ruined!! There will be no more U. S.A.
We have to get rid of this dementia President we have. Other countries cant even believe America would accept this person to lead us.
We are the laughing stock of the world!!
WAKE UP AMERICANS!!!
Tim J
March 1, 2023 at 8:44 am
Total ridiculousness. If they do try to indict him, nothing will come from it. If he had actually done anything, he would already be charged because they have come after him from every angle to what end? Nothing Burger because he hasn’t done anything against the law.
Phyllis
March 1, 2023 at 9:18 am
It’s 1945. What do you expect?
Snitch in Time
March 1, 2023 at 9:35 pm
The public is wise to the ways of Washington. The public has caught on that Democrats can commit any and all crimes and the media and party apparatus will circle the wagons to protect the criminal Democrat. An effective Republican will be charged with all kind of not-to-be-taken-seriously “counter revolution” and “crimes against leftism” which the chattering DC masses will celebrate. The fact is the public wants Trump and the only way to keep him out of the Whitehouse is for Democrats to either steal the 2024 election like they did 2020 or create martial law to cancel the election under some pretext.
peter gozinya
March 1, 2023 at 11:56 pm
This writer is the definition of an idiot…. What happens when Hunter and his China bought and paid for Father get indicted? There is actually a thing called proof to crimes committed by the Biden family, while the paid for media peddles more fake news about Trump.
Jim
March 2, 2023 at 6:56 pm
If Trump is sent to jail, then Biden should be in a mental institution!
ClayMD
March 2, 2023 at 9:24 pm
Well, here we are again at THE END OF DONALD TRUMP! Does anybody believe this?
jmfranco
March 5, 2023 at 12:13 pm
“And considering the fact that there are so many investigations against Trump at the moment, I am going to guess charges are coming.” I don’t care what side of the ball you’re on, if anyone has been paying any attention to Trump the last 7 years they sure as heck wouldn’t be saying he will probably get charged and go to jail. It has nothing to do with Trump committing crimes. It has everything to do with the crime being that warrants these investigations on him, nothing. Name one charge the DCstone Cops have levied on him. If 18 of Hillary’s lawyers couldn’t find anything then no one can, But far be it from the Left to be honest and forthright and above board and behave like the examples of great Americanism that inspires the country to unite going forward stronger than ever. Nope. Hillary acts like Trump needed help to beat her? Her book is one, maybe two chapters short with the first one describing how she was a horrible candidate and a Tickle me Elmo could have beat her, and the other about how she led the effort to cheat the last two elections. Sorry folks, any ballot counted after midnight Tuesday is cheating no matter who’s doing it, period. Meanwhile, the investigations on Trump continue to fall off left and right but the left doesn’t care. They leave each one on their list as if it were still relevant which they never were, and use them for propaganda, mudslinging and the historically ignorant hating just because they want to hate. Then they sit around and act like they are smart and honest. And for what? Biden is the single most unstable visible potentially catastrophic extinction event waiting to happen since the Chicxulub asteroid strike that killed every living thing on the planet. And he needs to be arrested and taken to GITMO for treason and charged on 5.5 million counts of it!
len
March 15, 2023 at 9:59 pm
Hours after being sworn into Congress, Rashida Tlaib grabbed headlines when she told the audience at a progressive event, “We’re gonna go in there and we’re going to impeach the Mother Fu**er” in reference to then President Trump.
So I say Elect that Mother Fu**er Again!