Will Ron DeSantis lose support to Donald Trump since Republicans will flock to the former president due to the indictments against him? That is a plausible scenario.
The GOP vote for the presidential nomination could break either way – toward Trump or toward DeSantis. Other consultants and campaign managers from the field of White House hopefuls are likely privately celebrating a Trump indictment. They want him to suffer in the criminal courts and in the court of public opinion. But Trump is fighting back calling the indictment the “boxes hoax.” He believes there is a two-tiered justice system that unfairly targets him to interfere in his election chances.
Ron DeSantis Is Fighting for Trump At Least For Now
So far, Ron DeSantis has supported Trump and agreed with him about the unequal application of justice. The Florida governor took to Twitter to explain how the indictments were unjust. “The weaponization of federal law enforcement represents a mortal threat to a free society. We have for years witnessed an uneven application of the law depending upon political affiliation,” he wrote.
If elected president, DeSantis also explained how he would reform the Department of Justice, remove political bias from the agency, and stop the governmental weaponization.
But That May Not Help His Polling
The Florida governor is currently lapsing in the polls. Political research aggregator FiveThirtyEight keeps a daily tracking poll of various survey averages for the Republican nomination. DeSantis significantly trails Trump by a score of 54 percent to 21 nationally. The governor should expect another short-term bump in Republicans support for the former president.
Numerous elected Republicans in the House, Senate, and many in the field of White House hopefuls are coming out in support of Trump. DeSantis will also be out of the news cycle for at least the next 48 hours. Other presidential candidates such as former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are criticizing Trump for his alleged transgressions. Former Vice President Mike Pence also questions the fitness of Trump for president amidst all the criminal charges.
Attack Trump at the First Presidential Debate
The totality of this skepticism toward the ex-president could have an effect down the road. It will be interesting to see how the field responds to the Trump legal scandals when they debate in Milwaukee in August. More candidates may make the case that Trump is unfit to be president. If DeSantis still stays in the same lane – that Trump is being unfairly targeted – the former president may see this as a win and voters could galvanize around him.
DeSantis then has some options on how he can approach this. He will probably choose the message that the DOJ and FBI need to be reformed and that he will “clean house” in those agencies should he be re-elected. Trump may not attend the debate which will allow the field to pillory him to improve their numbers.
Trump should also see a bump in his fundraising, at least in the coming days, as he already released a letter asking for money minutes after news of the indictments burst into the public consciousness.
Ron DeSantis the Winner?
If Trump is found guilty in either the Stormy Daniels hush money scheme where he faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records or is convicted of the classified documents charges, the field of candidates, including DeSantis, could change their tune. DeSantis is an attorney and knows the difference between right and wrong. He may amend his tactics and show voters that he is the one who is squeaky clean and has no legal baggage that would weigh him down in the general election.
DeSantis is probably glad that Christie and Hutchinson will bang the drum that Trump is an accused criminal and should not be re-elected. DeSantis will be happy someone else is willing to get their hands dirty on the warpath against Trump. So, look for a spike in the polls for Trump after the latest indictments, but keep in mind more charges for his actions leading up to the January 6 insurrection and his alleged meddling in the 2020 Georgia election could be on the way. That could mean that Republicans who are looking for a Trump alternative may coalesce around DeSantis.
Author Expertise and Experience: Serving as 19FortyFive’s Defense and National Security Editor, Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.
From 19FortyFive
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