President Joe Biden appears to be centering his reelection pitch on the economy. Intuitively, the messaging makes sense (“it’s the economy, stupid”) given the concept of citizens to “vote their pocketbooks.”
But voters are not convinced that Biden’s economic agenda has been effective – meaning that in order to run on a message of economic achievement, Biden will first have to convince voters that he has made economic achievements – and then he’ll need to justify those economic achievements as the reason why he deserves another four-years in office. I’m not convinced Biden can pull it off – but if he wants to be reelected, he’ll need to.
Biden will need to convince the America that economy is improving
According to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National poll, the economy is the most important issue facing voters: 31% of respondents listed the economy as the number one issue.
Preserving democracy (20%) was the only other issue hitting double-digits. Healthcare, immigration, climate change, crime, gun policy, abortion, and education all polled between 4 and 9%.
Accordingly, Biden does not have the luxury of centering on some other issue, say abortion or healthcare where Republicans are atrocious and out of sync with the average American. No, Biden will be forced to address the economy, and to convince voters that he has bolstered the economy.
Can Biden Make the Case?
Unemployment rates are low. Wages and job growth are high. Consumer spending is going up. Outwardly, the economy seems to be moving in the right direction. Yet fears of a recession linger – inspiring consumer (aka voter) caution.
“Despite recent positive indicators, the US’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed during the first three months of 2023 on the back of interest rate increases and inflation,” Investment Monitor reported. “The sluggish first quarter of 2023 follows a modest contraction in the first half of 2022.”
However, “when Biden became president, GDP growth was chugging along, exceeding 6% in three of the first four quarters he enter office.” So, Biden may have a tough case to make when touting his economic achievements.
To be fair, “Biden’s legislative wins have given aspects of the economy a boost and created jobs.” The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Chips Act all “have components designed to improve the US’s global competitiveness, its productivity, as well as incentivize domestic production.”
But will Biden’s legislative wins be enough to convince the America public that he is the most apt shepherd of the American economy?
Public perception of Biden’s economy
A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, released last May, found that only 33% of American adults approved of Biden’s handling of the economy while only 24% believe that national economic conditions are in good shape. Those are not reelection numbers in an environment where nearly a third of Americans believe the economy is the single most important issue.
“Public approval of Biden’s handling of the economy remains low in a time of high inflation, a difficult housing market and concerns about a potential U.S. government debt default,” PBS reported.
In short, I’m not confident Biden can convince voters that his economic performance has been superlative. But if he wants to be reelected, he will have to.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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