Lauren Boebert Is Vulnerable to Election Defeat in 2024: Colorado Congresswoman Lauren Boebert has a problem.
She nearly lost her re-election bid in 2022.
Most experienced representatives could read a 50-50 district and moderate their policy stances and public addresses to voters and the media.
In that polarized of a home base, it would be time to change strategies to woo swing voters and Independents.
But Lauren Boebert refuses to embark on that approach.
She is still the same conservative bomb thrower that she has always been – happy to energize her base without going to the middle.
Enter National Democrats Spying Boebert’s District as a Pick-up
This has Democrats licking their chops at the possibility of knocking off Boebert in 2024.
Her 2022 race was surprisingly close. Boert beat businessman and former city council member Adam Frisch by only 546 votes, making the nail-biting outcome less than one percentage point difference.
This vulnerability has landed Lauren Boebert on the targeted list by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The DCCC believes Boebert can be defeated this time as she continues to be controversial in Washington, DC while seemingly ignoring voters back home.
However, former President Donald Trump was victorious in her district during the last two election cycles. He won by 12 points in 2016 and 6 points in 2020. So perhaps a rejuvenated Trump, should he win the nomination, would provide coat-tails that could successfully bring Boebert over the finish line in 2024.
Colorado Businessman Taking Another Bite at the Apple
Democrat Adam Frisch is spoiling for a re-match and considers Boebert beatable. “One of our most effective comments that we talked about in the district was she’s not focused on the job, she’s focused on herself. I can’t believe she had almost the most embarrassing loss in 20 years, and she hasn’t changed one iota. She’s actually doubled down on crazy,” Frisch said in an article in the Hill months back.
Lauren Boebert Is a MAGA-Darling
Boebert, an outspoken MAGA conservative, still believes the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.
She has not shied from controversy, once insulting Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, in an attack the Democrats thought was Islamophobic. She almost lost her committee assignments for that diatribe.
Lauren Boebert is a huge fan of gun rights and the Second Amendment – known for her bar named Shooter’s Grill that hyped firearms. This has since closed, but her pro-gun rhetoric is often displayed. She is known for making moves that defy reason such as when she showed photos of human fetuses in a hearing on endangered animals.
Secular voters also may be turned off by Boebert’s propensity to make near religious sermons on the stump with a vigorous sprinkling of bible verses throughout.
But Is She Out of Touch with Local Concerns?
A former head of the GOP in Colorado, Dick Wadhams, thinks this adherence to the national culture wars could erode Boebert’s standing at home and make her re-election a gamble in 2024.
“She took that very combative style to her everyday work in the U.S. House of Representatives,” Wadhams told the Hill. “I think it started the people in the third congressional district thinking that she wasn’t paying enough attention to the district as she was paying more attention to national politics.”
But her national stature has made her a prolific fundraiser. She brought in $8 million last cycle. Meanwhile, her opponent Frisch raised $1.7 million in the first quarter after he announced the re-match.
Frisch may also succeed because he fashions himself a moderate with issue stances that align him with important constituencies in the agriculture and energy sectors. He could also be encouraged by the DCCC to accuse Boebert, rightly or wrongly, of wanting to cut Social Security and Medicare. This is a popular Democrat accusation – even when it is not true. Boebert will likely try to label Frisch as soft on crime and as a “gun grabber.”
Thus, national Democrats and Republicans will watch this race closely. It could be a barometer of what happens nationwide. Can the Democrats pull off the upset if Lauren Boebert continues her errant and right-wing ways? Or is she more popular in the district than the DCCC reckons? It is sure to be an interesting race with Boebert fighting valiantly for her political life.
Author Expertise and Experience:
Serving as 19FortyFive’s Defense and National Security Editor, Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.