What would a Ukrainian victory look like, and is it achievable? Seemingly demoralized by the ongoing Ukrainian offensive’s slow progress, many analysts have predicted that a Ukrainian victory is impossible.
Russia, so the argument goes, can hold its defensive lines indefinitely because its resources are greater than Ukraine’s.
Hence, a long-lasting war of attrition is unwinnable for Ukraine—as well as, possibly, for Russia.
Since stalemate is unavoidable, negotiations should begin sooner rather than later. Neither side may get what it wants, but at least fewer lives will be lost.
Ukrainians roundly reject this scenario, while Russians generally endorse it, even if not openly. That’s significant, testifying to Ukrainian confidence that they can win and Russian uncertainty about their current capacities.
Naturally, both sides could be wrong, so a closer look at the reasoning outlined above is worthwhile.
Ukraine’s Offensive in Trouble? Not Exactly
Has Ukraine’s offensive stalled? Yes, but only if one measures progress in territorial gains, which, though not insignificant, have been modest. If, alternatively, one broadens one’s notion of progress to include Russia’s entire war-fighting capabilities—which include ammunition dumps, infrastructure, communications, fuel depots, and the like—then the answer has to be a resounding no.
As the United States Military Academy’s Jan Kallberg rightly says:
Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.
Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns.
Indeed, says Kallberg, having liberated the village of Robotyne, some 55 miles from the Sea of Azov, “the Ukrainians need to advance by a further … 7–10 miles, in order to range their guns on Russia’s east-west transport routes that are critical to the ability of its army and armed forces to fight.”
Kallberg’s conclusion is worth underscoring: “If Ukraine can interdict these road and rail links, it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight.”
There is every reason to think that Ukraine’s General Staff shares Kallberg’s analysis, especially as they know that a large-scale frontal offensive of the kind impatient Western analysts and commentators would like to see would be suicidal without the air power the West has refused to supply.
Russia’s Resources: Greater Than Ukraine?
Are Russia’s resources—as measured in numbers of soldiers, armaments, etc.—greater than Ukraine’s? Well, of course they are, and they always were. And yet, as the failure of last year’s invasion showed, the quality and morale of the fighting forces, leadership, and equipment are arguably more important than sheer numbers. Ukraine demonstrated the truth of this proposition four times in 2022: when it stopped Russia at Kyiv’s doorstep, when it forced the Russians to withdraw from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv provinces, and when it recaptured parts of Kharkiv and Kherson provinces.
Moreover, Ukraine’s resources aren’t all that matters. Western assistance to Ukraine has been of immense importance and to no small degree accounts for Ukraine’s ability to liberate about half the territory seized by Russia in the months immediately after the attack. The West’s resources aren’t infinite, and its willingness to provide them may also be limited, but the West could, if it wanted, ensure a Ukrainian victory.
Can Russia Fight Forever?
Finally, can Russia fight indefinitely?
Well, yes, if one simply looks at the numbers. With a population of about 140 million, Russian casualties appear tiny. But numbers, again, aren’t all that matters. Will Russian men continue to go blindly to their deaths? Will the Russian population tolerate indefinitely such a self-slaughter? Will Russian elites?
After all, the elites know that this is Vladimir Putin’s war. His position, as both the Prigozhin Mutiny and his seeming demise have demonstrated, is shaky at best. Will Russia continue to fight if Putin dies or is killed? Just asking these questions suggests that the answers are anything but obvious.
What Does Victory Look Like for Ukraine?
What, then, would a Ukrainian victory look like? The minimum would be a withdrawal of Russian forces from the territories it occupied in 2022. The maximum would be a complete withdrawal of the territories Russia seized in 2014—the Crimea and Donbas. Both scenarios would have to entail Russian reparations, which could be as high as $3 trillion, continued Western armament of Ukraine, some form of security guarantees, and serious movement toward European Union and NATO membership.
T-90M from Russian Military in Ukraine.
Would Russia agree to such terms? If it loses the war, yes: it would have no choice. If Putin is deposed and a more or less pro-Western coalition succeeds Putin, then also yes: Russia would want a durable peace.
To repeat: Ukraine can win, but only if the West lets it win. A Ukrainian victory would obviously enable Ukraine to rebuild, but it would also provide Russia with a historic opportunity to abandon fascism and imperialism and take a serious stab at democracy.
About the Author, Dr. Alexander Motyl
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
From the Vault
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John
August 26, 2023 at 11:39 am
Without Western General War mobilization, Ukraine cannot win. Russian war mobilization is outproducing the West in weapons and munitions. Neither the media nor our political leaders are listening to military experts spelling out this reality. The defeat of Ukraine is going to be caused by a lack of Western will, not capability and will spell the end for Nato, the EU and the Biden administration.
0Zed
August 26, 2023 at 11:48 am
With timely and sufficient material and technical support, a support that the world democratic coalition can easily afford, the Russian people will make Putin quit long before Ukraine runs out of soldiers.
The Russian people neither need nor want this war. This war is Putin’s war.
– Remember Finland, all alone in the 1930s, which held off the Soviets well enough to preserve Finland’s independence.
– Remember Vietnam in the 1960s where the US military won every major military engagement yet lost the Vietnamese people and the war.
– Remember Afghanistan in the 1980s where the Soviets committed every atrocity imaginable yet lost that war.
A people’s capacity to work, suffer, fight, kill and die (if necessary) is astonishing. That spiritual motivation can only exist for the side that sees itself – and knows itself to be – in a war of national liberation. For Ukraine, this war is such a war. For the Russian people, it is not.
With prudence, energy, courage, fortitude, skill, perseverance, and outside material and technical support, the conditions are there for Ukrainians to defy and rebuke Putin’s imperialist fantasy.
Doomed to fail, faced with the butcher’s bill, and seeing that there is nothing “necessary” about this war, the Russian people will tell Putin, “Enough! End your war on Ukraine. End your war on the Russian people.”
Sincere negotiations with mutual and enforceable security guarantees can then occur.
404NotFound
August 26, 2023 at 12:34 pm
No victory is in sight for ukraine or zelenskiyy and his neo-nazi army.
When you stupidly wage all-out war on a nuclear-armed state right on his front doorstep, you have virtually signed your own death warrant.
Victory ? Victory in death. Or victory when already in the netherworld. Accompanied by old old JRB. Great company.
David
August 26, 2023 at 1:36 pm
The territorial gains Ukraine has made are meaningless. They haven’t even reached Russia’s first line of defense. Ukraine has sustained immense losses in men and equipment and has almost nothing to show for it. It cannot sustain its current level of losses. It will not be receiving nearly as much aid going forward. Its economy is now totally dependent on the West. The reality is, Ukraine has no possibility of winning. The longer the war persists the more Ukraine will lose. Now is the time to negotiate a settlement.
Jim
August 26, 2023 at 1:52 pm
This article is the most clear-eyed analysis I’ve seen from the author… in a series of articles more or less revealing of the author’s hatred of all things Russia than a serious analysis of the conflict… at the time of the article’s publication.
(In that regard, I applaud the author for coming back to Earth in his analysis and encourage him to continue do so.)
Given Kiev’s army has not even reached the Surovikin Line and, seemingly, learned the wrong lesson from Kherson… it wasn’t sending wave after wave of mechanized formations slamming into the teeth of the Russian defenses hoping the Russians will pull out and pull back, like at Kherson. The Russians made a decision (a hard one) to make a strategic withdrawal and give up the left bank of the Dnieper river for positions more easily defended and not subject to a possible cut-off from bases of supply and support.
But Kiev’s army has been all about wave after wave of frontal assaults that has led to grievous casualties and massive loses of equipment.
Can Kiev win?
Not with the present tactics of slamming into defensive emplacements which are in the initial zone designed to “slow down and inflict casualties” before Kiev’s army even gets to the actual Surovikin Line.
True, Kiev’s drone attacks behind the lines in rear areas and at the line of contact is what is keeping Kiev in the game… but, in my opinion, this won’t win the overall war.
How do the Ukrainian People win?
Sue for peace, now, before it’s too late… and unconditional surrender is their only choice.
Winning is not fighting to the last Ukrainian.
Fighting to the last man is suicidal, and for a nation’s leadership, it’s reckless… and displays more concern for their personal fate than the well-being of their people… or nation.
It’s easy to be willing to fight to the last man when you’re safely sitting in your easy chair tapping on the keyboard.
Steve
August 26, 2023 at 2:40 pm
Ukraine has already liberated about half of the territory Russia seized in 2022, there’s no reason they can’t do the same for the rest, as well as that seized in 2014.
As has been thoroughly demonstrated, Russia is a corrupt state with a poorly trained, poorly motivated, poorly equipped, and poorly led military. If they were able to produce modern weaponry, they wouldn’t be pulling T-54/55 tanks out of storage. Ukraine’s qualitative advantage will only increase as it receives more western weaponry, including Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs & F-16s.
Russian trolls calling everyone Nazis won’t change that reality.
Yrr
August 26, 2023 at 3:17 pm
The author is a professor of political science : He has no clue about science and technological affairs, i.e. modern military.
Let’s apologize him for this ridiculous article.
And let all of us pray and hope for a Russian victory, else Russia will use nukes… Russia, not only Putin, knows very well she cannot afford the kind of defeat prepared for her by the USA since 1990’s.
Marshall
August 26, 2023 at 4:45 pm
“The West’s resources aren’t infinite, and its willingness to provide them may also be limited, but the West could, if it wanted, ensure a Ukrainian victory.”
How, pray tell? By sending the American Army to Ukraine?
Does the author really think that Russia and the Russian people would fold if the American Army started attacking Russian troops? Does the author really think that an American victory would be automatic? What if that war turned into a stalemate, with 10,000 American casualties a month? Does the author really think we (the US) would fight “The War of NATO Enlargement” for years?
Gavin Longmuir
August 26, 2023 at 4:57 pm
“it would also provide Russia with a historic opportunity to abandon fascism and imperialism and take a serious stab at democracy.”
You mean the kind of “democracy” we see in the US where faceless bureaucrats send $Billions to the known corrupt Ukraine without a vote of the American people? Where a senile “leader” risks nuclear war over the borders of the Ukraine while leaving the southern border of the US wide open — against the clearly-expressed wishes of the American people?
Any objective outsider would conclude that “imperialism” is a better description of the US (undemocratic) elite pushing NATO’s borders right up to Russia.
Sadly, we are now in a position where the main question is whether the US suffers economic collapse before Biden triggers a global thermonuclear war? In either circumstance, the Ukraine does not “win”.
Webej
August 26, 2023 at 8:14 pm
Obviously we have hit the bargaining stage of grief; the next stage is resignation (depression/acceptance).
Russia has far more resources than does NATO, producing 10× as much air defense, tanks, and shells. And it is next door.
Ukraine reached its maximum peace before Maidan; after that the best possible outcome was Minks; after that, negotiation after Russian peace-keepers moved into the LDNR; after that, the provisional agreements of April 2022 which were nixed by the West.
Ukraine can only achieve anything through negotiation, which they have outlawed and undermined. Every escalation after this will result in less Ukrainian men and less Ukraine.
John C. Tokalenko
August 27, 2023 at 4:36 am
The PEOPLE of Ukraine “win” just as soon as the regime in Kiev is removed from power.
A senseless slaughter for over a year now, an unwinnable war, with Ukrainian lives used by Washington, Brussels, and Kiev as raw meat for the endless grinder.
Matthew Jacobs
August 27, 2023 at 8:20 am
Yeah, I picked up on the Nazi spin also
June
August 27, 2023 at 9:38 am
Even though the United States has recently spent a lot of money on the war in Afghanistan, it has not been large enough to affect the American economy. On the other hand, the mighty USSR collapsed with the Soviet-Afghan War. The war in Ukraine is much larger in scale and, with the active support of the West, it will significantly drain Russian resources. We have already started to see the material used in World War II. I think the collapse of Russia is not inconceivable.
OIF Combat Vet
August 27, 2023 at 10:45 am
Ukraine is is in a world of shit right now, they don’t have the manpower or the air support they need, Russia has both and that’s what will eventually win…Ukraine doesn’t want a peace settlement because the neo-cons don’t want one…and when Ukraine loses, Zelensky and his oligarchs can retire to their villas abroad paid for by our military aid.
HAT451
August 27, 2023 at 11:17 am
Without direct NATO or NATO member states direct intervention, there will only be a Russian victory. The only questions are when and how big.
There are a number of articles published on population collapse, particularly of men of military age in Ukraine. For some age groups is is as low as 75 thousand left, most of which are either already serving, wounded, or in hiding. The current Ukrainian counteroffensive is reaching a culminating point. Ukrainian strategic reserve is being used up to either try achieve a breakthrough in the south through the first of 3 major defensive lines, of try to slow the Russian advance in the north.
While Ukraine is grasping at straws, during this time, Russia has conducted two mobilizations of over 300k per mobilization, one in fall of 22 and one in spring of 23. Based on my reading, Russia is planning a major offensive in the near future, and they have the degree of success will probably redefine the map of what was Ukraine prior to winter of 21-22.
I expect Russia will mobilize at least another 300k this fall. I expect Ukraine might be able to mobilize another 100-150k. The major difference is that new Russian soldiers will be about 21-22 years old, while the new Ukrainian soldiers will be 35-45 years old. The Russian soldiers deployed to Ukraine will be 22-25 years old with at least 30 with at a minimum of 6 months training, while unless a Ukrainian soldier was trained abroad (about 15% of the soldiers on the front), most new Ukrainian soldiers are deployed to the front with less then a week of training.
Bottom line, for the new weapon systems, it takes months if not years to learn how to operate the equipment, in integration with other weapon systems and units. Operationally, there is a difference between how NATO operates and how former Warsaw Pact nations operated. Staff officers need to be retrained on effective doctrine using NATO systems. This months to years to learn.
There is a saying now, “NATO will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.”
What happens when Ukraine runs out of soldiers?
Fenderowner
August 27, 2023 at 6:51 pm
As pointed out above, the author fails to mention the relatively large number of casualties the Ukrainians have suffered during this war. Their fighting manpower “well” is just about empty; i.e., they may be on the verge of running out of soldiers.
Moreover, the author claims another 10 mile Ukrainian advance “will bring Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under [Ukrainian] guns.” And where do they expect to get the artillery rounds necessary to threaten Russia’s GLOC? the US has dangerously depleted its inventory of 155mm rounds by shipping these to Ukraine, and we are not geared up for rapid replenishment, let alone in a position to provide the amount of ammunition the Ukrainians will require to adversely impact the Russian GLOC.
Sofronie the Monk
August 27, 2023 at 9:59 pm
@404NotFound: “When you stupidly wage all-out war on a nuclear-armed state right on his front doorstep, you have virtually signed your own death warrant.” So this is going to be the future for any Russian neighbor? Basically submit or die? We’ll take the second one, thank you. With a side of Russian corpses.
@David: Ukraine has already breached Russia’s first line of defense. Try to keep up.
@Steve: Hold on, Russia’s about to send the IS-8 tanks as well… Can’t wait to see a T-35 in action. Imagine, a FIVE turreted tank, while the puny American Abrams has only one measly turret…
@Yrr: So what, every time Russia is going to invade someone they have to capitulate immediately, least they risk nuclear war? Try better, not even Botswana is impressed by this rhetoric.
@Gavin Longmuir: Yes, the US and NATO are the imperialist ones. Look how many territories they have annexed… Look at all the countries they forced into NATO (instead of letting them be forced into Russia, where they belong). Let us know when was the last time any NATO country annexed any territories. Thanks!
@Webej: What a shame the Ukrainians didn’t want the same peacekeepers in Kyiv as well, right? And yes, Russia is outproducing NATO by one billion. Look at the shiny new T-55s and IS-8s being sent to the front. Can’t wait for a few Il-2s to make an appearance as well. Who knows, maybe we’ll see some super stealth Kukuruzniks in action.
@John C. Tokalenko: What did the people of Ukraine said to their “liberators”? Ah, yes: Russian ship, go love yourself.
@HAT451: Bet the average Russians can’t WAIT to go to Ukraine and fight for the Rodina. That’s why the recruiting offices are overwhelmed by volunteers these days. I heard quite a few of them were smoking carelessly recently…
dave
August 28, 2023 at 4:02 am
This guy is in fantasy land. Ukraine is getting hammered, and out of everything. They are talking about mobilizing 200,000 more up to 65 years old. Not going tohappen. It`s over.
Copenheimer
August 28, 2023 at 8:48 am
Gotta love to see the best bots the rashka has to offer scramble to provide the assessment that the combined industrial might of all Western ammo producers isn’t enough for Ukraine to win the artillery war 😀
In the age of industrial warfare, the one-eyed man is king –and our dear Ruskiy Mir is missing both arms and one leg. Ukraine has managed these past few weeks to obtain something that seemed impossible at the beginning of the war: achieve an overmatch in indirect fires with Russia. Not sure how long will they be able to maintain the ammo consumption, but European large-caliber ammo production (including Germany, Spain, Bulgaria and Romania) now more than triplicates Russian capacity. As Ukrainian forces are fighting against the second defensive line erected in Western Zaporizhia, they’re facing increasingly less resistance. All elements of the 7th Guards VDV (Mountain Air Assault) Division are actively deployed in combat. For those who haven’t followed it much, the 7th VDV Div was the MAIN russian operational reserve combat unit, and one of the cores of the Russian Army. As the first brigade was severely degraded, another one was deployed about a month ago, with the last brigade already deployed into combat as of last week, and retreated from Robotyne. There are no additional operational reserves in the South, but Russia keeps some signifcant forces in the Luhansk-Kharkiv Oblasts’ border. The only way Russia can prevent a full breakthrough in the South is by lateral reinforcements, that is, by risking another one in the North-East –where Russian forces are facing the 92nd Mechanized Brigade (which spearheaded the OG Kharkiv Counter-offensive) and the Azov Regiment. Another month, another dilemma
ltexpat
August 28, 2023 at 12:31 pm
The Kallberg article referred to is pure wishful thinking without any apparent analysis of how the weapons would need to be used, or the countermeasures the Russians could take.
Say Ukraine does advance another 10km from Robotyne, and also widens the salient. Yes, this would put the section of the M14 road to Crimea between from a little East of Pryazovske to the Melitopol bypass within range of HIMARS/M270 located South of Orkhiv.
Two problems with this:
1. The section of road that would become vulnerable would be quite short, about 25 to 30 km. This could easily be defended by Russian AD, they claim to have intercepted over 3,500 ballistic missiles, mostly various types of MLRs, but including almost 2,500 M31 MLRS missiles. So, a few leakers would get through. BFD, pinpricks.
2. To get within range of this road, the HIMARS/M270s would have to be within a relatively small area South of Orkhiv. This area is certainly under 24/7 surveillance by Russia. A few loitering Lancets, a couple of Smerch batteries on-call for CB fires, etc., Russia has many options for dealing with MLR systems that venture into the area.
Tamerlane
August 28, 2023 at 6:33 pm
A tiny gasp of at least attempted realism from the Ukrainian troll Motyl, amazing. Watch as the neocons and liberal interventionists here scream bloody murder.
They surely must know that the American people tire of these wealth transfers to Ukraine—transfers which only further weaken American standing and power in the world. Will they recognize this before we see an existential challenge to our own hegemony? Probably not, they are in for a pence and in for a pound. They don’t even now see the warning lights flashing red as the BRICS expand and openly plot to overturn our dollar and thus our international dole/capacity to project power/ability to live domestically with wealth far beyond our productivity.
Once can hope, that even a blinkered jack@ss like Motyl will see the light, but it likely will be far too late to help the United States from this morass of our own making.