Key Points and Summary – How China Could Hunt Aircraft Carriers: China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has significantly improved its submarine fleet, with modern boats like the Yuan-class AIP subs and Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarines.
-These vessels are stealthier and better equipped, carrying deadly torpedoes and anti-ship missiles.
-Historical encounters show PLAN subs tracking U.S. carriers, but sinking one is a different challenge.
-U.S. carrier strike groups boast robust defenses, including advanced sensors, Virginia-class submarines, and layered anti-submarine systems.
-While Chinese submarines are increasingly lethal, the survivability of U.S. carriers, coupled with improved countermeasures, makes a successful attack unlikely.
-The contest remains a critical focus in East Asia’s naval balance.
Would a Chinese Submarine Be Able to Sink a U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier?
Much has been written about the diversity and power of China’s array of anti-ship missiles like the DF-21D and DF-26B.
These missiles can scurry across the ocean and could perhaps kill aircraft carriers if they make it past the Aegis Combat System air defense shield that comes on support ships in a carrier strike group. But what about submarines?
China has modernized its fleet and is excelling at undersea warfare capabilities, and these sneaky vessels can threaten aircraft carriers, too.
The Chinese Submarine Fleet is Growing and Becoming More Skillful
The Chinese boats can hunt and maybe kill carriers, and they are difficult to track by American sonar methods. Chinese subs used to be much easier to discover.
They were noisy and clunky but now a significant number of boats use the Stirling generator type Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) for a quieter ride that makes them more difficult to fend off. China has 21 Yuan-class AIP diesel-electric subs and another 27 without AIP. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has six nuclear-powered fast attack subs that can silently hunt and kill. The PLAN boasts a total of 60 submarines and plans to have 65 by this year.
Some submarines, such as the Shang-class nuclear-powered boats, carry anti-ship ballistic missiles. There are also 13 older Song-class attack boats that also carry ship-killing missiles.
Moreover, Ming-class subs have heavy torpedoes that could play a role in a carrier attack. China bought 12 Kilo-class subs from Russia. They have retired two, but the other ten can travel at a top speed of 20 knots.
How Did They Get That Close?
Chinese submarines have tracked an aircraft carrier before. This happened off the coast of Japan in 2015. A Kilo-class was operating close to the carrier USS Ronald Reagan. The Kilo-class tracked the carrier for at least 12 hours, which the Navy said was “more than a brief encounter.”
The PLAN thought that the Ronald Reagan was operating in Chinese waters, while the officers and sailors aboard the Reagan believed they were making a routine freedom of navigation patrol to keep sea lines of communication open for all ships.
Moreover, a Song-class boat once surfaced near the USS Kitty Hawk in 2006, showing that it could advance to the torpedo range of the American carrier.
U.S. Submarines Protect Aircraft Carriers
However, just because a PLAN submarine can get close to a carrier doesn’t mean it could execute an attack.
The U.S. Navy has Virginia-class submarines that are still much more capable of taking out a PLAN sub before it could create a firing solution for its torpedoes and anti-ship missiles. But the Chinese have greatly improved their submarines over the last 20 years, and they are assuredly still tracking aircraft carriers – the biggest prize in the East and South China Sea.
U.S. Aircraft Carriers Are Difficult to Sink
Carrier strike groups have layer upon layer of defenses against submarines, even deploying their own U.S. Navy subs that form a perimeter around a carrier strike group. Plus, a U.S. carrier can take multiple hits before sinking.
There was a “sink-ex” drill the Navy undertook to destroy one of its own flat-tops in 2005. It took four weeks, with multiple explosions at the water line, to send the USS America to the bottom of the ocean. The Navy learned lessons from that exercise that are incorporated into the design of newer carriers.
New Torpedoes from China Are Becoming More Lethal
Meanwhile, Chinese torpedoes are becoming more powerful and deadly. The PLAN tested a new Yu-10 heavyweight torpedo that blasted an old amphibious ship last summer.
The Yu-10 exploded with such force that it sent the targeted ship into the air and decisively destroyed its keel. The explosion sent a water plume 300 feet high.
Nimitz-Class Aircraft Carrier.
This is all part of China’s strategy, operations, and tactics against U.S. carriers. The PLAN wishes to deny access to the flat-tops and “blunt” their effectiveness. This would “push” them away from the Mainland, especially with the carrier-killing missiles – some of which range 2,000 miles.
Submarines add to the “blunting” strategy. This could mean carriers would have to stay out of range of carrier-killing missiles, which is problematic since the F-35C has a range of only 1,300 miles.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy is taking countermeasures that improve sensors and radars, using drones for early discovery and electronic warfare to spoof enemy missiles that come from land or submarines. This makes the carrier strike group more survivable against Chinese subs.
Overall, the PLAN submarine force is becoming lethal and stealthier. Torpedoes have shown their power. Anti-ship carriers killing ballistic missiles fired from submarines could be a problem as the enemy sub does not have to approach the carrier strike group that closely.
However, there is a question of whether these missiles can hit a moving target going above 20 knots.
The U.S. Navy is still unafraid and will continue to avoid being “blunted” and operate anywhere it wishes in East Asia.
The PLAN’s submarines get more modern and numerous each year, and they can track aircraft carriers but may not be able to destroy them in conflict.
Members of the People’s Liberation Army navy are seen on board China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning as it sails into Hong Kong, China July 7, 2017. REUTERS/Bobby Yip
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
