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Think Navy Aircraft Carriers are Unsinkable? Meet the Gotland-Class Submarine

Gotland-Class. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Gotland-Class. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Key Points and Summary – How the Gotland-Class Changed Naval History: The U.S. Navy’s reliance on aircraft carriers faces increasing challenges from diesel-electric submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems.

-In 2004, a Swedish Gotland-class submarine with AIP “sank” the USS Ronald Reagan during exercises, showcasing the stealth and endurance of these submarines.

-China now fields Yuan-class subs with similar capabilities, posing a serious threat to U.S. carrier strike groups in the Indo-Pacific.

-With advanced torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles, these subs could penetrate carrier defenses.

-The Navy must intensify anti-submarine warfare training and modernize defenses to counter this evolving threat, learning from past exercises to avoid future disasters.

The Gotland-Class Incident: A Wake-Up Call for U.S. Aircraft Carrier Defense

Can the U.S. Navy Learn Lessons from the Time Its Carrier Was “Sunk” in Drills?

I burn many brain calories wondering about U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. Is the $13 billion price tag on the new Gerald R. Ford worth it? 

What about the high cost of time and money for maintenance and re-fueling periods for nuclear-powered ships? 

What about the quality of life for sailors? Could a U.S. carrier survive a war with China? 

These are all questions that need answers if the Navy continues depending on flat-tops in 21st-century maritime warfare.

Not Just Carrier-killing Missiles to Watch Out For

Indeed, the Chinese have many anti-ship carrier-killing missiles

The U.S. Navy must come to terms with the possibility of losing an aircraft carrier to enemy missiles

Then, there are improved Chinese diesel-electric submarines. These have become stealthier over the years and could threaten a U.S. carrier strike group. 

Take the story of the Gotland-class diesel-electric attack submarine that gave a carrier group fits during military exercises over 20 years ago. Has the Navy learned its lesson from these simulated losses?

Sweden Teaches the U.S. Navy Valuable Lessons

The Swedish Gotland-class once “sunk” the USS Ronald Reagan carrier several times in drills in 2004. The Gotland-class boats are small with only 32 sailors and officers on board. They are just 200 feet long and displace only 1,380 tons.

Quiet Propulsion System Is a Difference-maker

But here is the real tactical difference.

 They are deathly quiet because of an innovation that the United States became highly interested in after the simulated “defeat” of the Reagan.

 I refer to the Gotland-class Stirling engine air-independent propulsion (AIP) system. This grants the diesel-electric sub great endurance. It can stay submerged with the AIP system for weeks instead of days. 

The batteries are only used when the AIP is engaged, allowing the sub to run unabated for lengthy periods.

These AIP subs are cheaper and easier to build than nuclear-powered boats.

Swift, Quiet, and Deadly

They have Magnetic Anomaly Detectors and stealth coatings to make the Gotland-class more survivable and stealthy.

This enables them to discover enemy submarines better and evade sonar to run silent and deep. The U.S. Navy was highly interested in the Gotland-class after the Reagan had so much difficulty during the exercises.

Chinese Submarines Have AIP Like Gotland-Class

That spells trouble for the U.S. Navy. Sweden is friendly, but China is not. 

The Chinese navy possesses its submarines that have the AIP system. 

The Yuan-class submarines are the first group of Chinese submarines to utilize AIP. 

With AIP, the Yuan-class is just as valuable as a nuclear-powered sub. The only difference is the range and the ability to stay at sea for lengthy periods. A diesel-electric boat with AIP like the Yuan-class is something to worry about for U.S. anti-submarine warfare.

The U.S. Navy must watch out for other aircraft carriers that could succumb to AIP subs.

The U.S. carrier strike groups have many ways to defeat enemy submarines. Modern sonar systems and anti-submarine aircraft are constantly patrolling. American sailors are highly trained and must attend intense technical schools before they are rated as anti-submarine warfare experts. 

This will come down to a duel between the Chinese submariners and American anti-sub sailors. The U.S. Navy must train realistically and learn the lessons from Ronald Reagan’s struggles against the AIP subs.

China Presents a Numbers Problem for U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers 

There are 20 Yuan-class subs, meaning if two American aircraft carriers patrolling the East and South China Seas, the Chinese could deploy up to ten subs each to chase the American flat-tops. 

I don’t like those numbers, which spells a significant risk for the Navy’s dependence on aircraft carriers to fight the Chinese and project power and national prestige in the Indo-Pacific.

The Yuan-class has heavyweight torpedoes and, more concerning, anti-ship cruise missiles. They can reach a speed of 20 knots. The Yuan-class with the AIP can stay submerged longer, either close to shore or in the East and South China Seas depths. 

Navy Aircraft Carriers are in Trouble 

Thus, the U.S. carriers have their work cut out for them. The Yuan-class is a worthy adversary. They could sneak inside a carrier strike group and cause trouble – much like the Swedish Gotland-class. 

Over 20 years have passed since the exploits against the Ronald Reagan. The Navy must learn the lessons and focus hard on diesel-electric subs with AIP. There is no room for error, and each sailor on board a surface vessel in the U.S. Navy must come to grips with the fact that he or she could die on a sunk warship. So, anti-submarine warfare takes the essence of skill and experience.

The Chinese will do their best to threaten U.S. carriers, which could spell a disaster for the Navy and its ambitions to keep sea lanes open in the Indo-Pacific.

Gotland-Class Submarines Photo Essay 

Gotland-Class. Image: Public Domain.

Gotland-Class: Image Credit – Sweden.

Gotland-class Submarine.

Gotland-class Submarine.

Image of Gotland Submarine. Creative Commons.

Image of Gotland-class Submarine.

Gotland-class

Gotland-class Submarine.

Gotland Submarine.

Gotland Submarine.

Gotland Submarine.

Gotland-class Submarine. Image: Creative Commons.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood 

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Written By

Now serving as 1945s Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer.

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Patric

    January 21, 2025 at 7:36 pm

    What I find extremely interesting is every time that I have read an article on 1945, it’s an infantry officer commenting on naval topics. As former infantry myself I would never comment on a naval topic I would go to my relatives who spent many years in the Navy and an ex uncle in law who was actually a commander on a submarine not a soldier.

  2. Daniel Sokol

    January 21, 2025 at 9:40 pm

    This exercise was a farce.

    Restricted maneuvering, not allowed to exceed 15 knots, no antisubmatine helicopters or other assets.

    There is no way that the Gotland could keep up with a Carrier Group at flank speed.

  3. George Taylor

    January 21, 2025 at 11:51 pm

    In 2006, a Chinese Song-class submarine (essentially a Chinese copy of the Russian Kilo class sub) stealthily surfaced within five miles of the USS Kitty Hawk during
    a U.S. Navy exercise near Okinawa.

    In a 2015 war game, the French Rubis-class submarine Saphir demonstrated a disturbing vulnerability in the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 12 (CSG-12) by sinking the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and four escorts in a simulated attack.

    Submariners call aircraft carriers “targets”

  4. Simon Lund

    January 22, 2025 at 3:30 am

    Is this Gotland-class Submarine actually one of the Australian built subs that other countries tried to identify as a poor class of submarine. It was a fantastic unit and was and still is used by the Australian navy with much success against our American cousins during RIMPAC. Yes there was problems initially and it is now getting a bit old but was successful.

  5. Timothy

    January 22, 2025 at 9:15 am

    Well, to some extent this is true. As a Naval officer, our attack subs have defenses China doesn’t have any we are the ones patrolling under the China sea.. and our carrier groups have sub tenders and chasers state of the art..technology not seen before or used yet.. China doesn’t have some technological advanced carriers..now they just need to be trained on how to run them.. thru have the poorest trained military, land and sea..may be the biggest, but we will never go to war with China. We have 4,000 nukes. China has 500. If one ever launched, before it hit US airspace, no it one city in China would be left standing. We have military bases and carrier groups always on the ready watching their Navy. Don’t underestimate the American military and it’s defenses. Usually when advanced technology appears on foreign ships..then everyone gets it. That’s why there are intelligence agencies…even the odds. But yeah, don’t worry about China.. They haven’t even made it to Taiwan yet. They think the LLC type barges to off lift personnel and equipment is being sneaky..we know they plan on invading Taiwan. Well, there are American defenses waiting for them. Remember D- Day? We are the ones waiting on the beach this time. Anyone in the Chinese intelligence monitoring this, remember that when your military leaves..to do something stupid like invade Taiwan..you will need your whole entire naval fleet and then we will sail right in your ports in China.. not Taiwan

  6. Timothy

    January 22, 2025 at 9:19 am

    Also, the Gotland was sunk by our subs during the exercise after it sunk the Reagan.. remember it’s not just one ship in a carrier group.

  7. Hugh Russell

    January 22, 2025 at 11:48 am

    David and Goliath

  8. Paul Scallan Jr

    January 22, 2025 at 8:39 pm

    I think (as a former Marine infantryman) that our US Navy is on a good solid “foundation,” yet we should be wary of any potential enemy always and I am sure China has developed its own secret tactical naval weapons and defenses. Sure, our DIA and CIA work tirelessly to ensure we stay updated as possible, but there will always be things we don’t know. That’s why now for sure… Now is the time for all good and great men and women to come to the aid of this great Nation, Our Republic… The United States of America! This is not a drill. The younger generations must be slapped out of the fantasies they believe they live out and out of the entitled lazy ass personna characteristics they so blatantly demonstrate daily. They need to realize that there are many out there who covet what we have and what we are as a Nation and eventually one country perhaps partnered with others will come and try to take that which so many of us take for granted, what so many lack respect for… our assets, our land, our people. Stay tuned, stay alert, stand tall and be strong always!

  9. Brad Enzo

    January 24, 2025 at 5:36 pm

    Aircraft carriers are useless against modern military, it’s no longer ww2, if it can be seen it can be hit, all can be seen with by satellite. Hypersonic missiles and drone swarms cannot be defended against, you think a nation at war cares if it cost $20million in drones to swarm the strike, soon to be struck group, defenses and expend it’s ammo and create more targets than sights can manage? Why do we not have better modern equipment? Because garbage like Pelosi and McCarthy held the purse strings, and used insider trading to get rich while the military contractors ripped us off, making the same old crap from the 90s. Of course the bums in government tell us we have the best, because we spend the most. We do spend the most and get ripped off. These bums have robbed every program in the government, but not the military? That’s where they draw the line? Ya right, and don’t forget to leave carrots out for the frigging Easter bunny on Easter eve. Funny how those Boeing whisteblowers turned up dead. But yeah it’s me, I just hate the United States,why else would I call out the looting and incompetence of the defense industry, and the moronic crooks in government.China and Russia have hypersonic capabilities they’ll we don’t have, Russia has underwater drones that can carry a nuclear payload and travel a hundred knots underwater. We spent 20 years in the middle east it’s now worse than ever and we definitely can’t call it a win. Why cant we call it a win? Because the same moronic politicians who hold the purse strings on weapons and equipment set the rules of engagement. They wouldn’t let our men fight a real war, but they got tge equipment and weapons correct for a real conflict? But we’re gonna beat Russia and China? Haha, ya right, than again we have diversity and that’s our strength lol. When they see out diversity they’ll surrender unconditionally. I’m not saying we don’t have some great soldiers, but they’re only as good as they’re allowed to be, and if your opportunity to kill the enemy becomes a legal decision with all kinds of rules and Rex tape, you have been set up to fail. Failure, is expected when you train on diversity, climate change, intersectional genders, gay pride, racism, instead of killing people and breaking things.
    Just my 4 cents, which used to be 2cents but the geniuses in congress created major inflation, but don’t worry when it comes to war they’ll get it right.

  10. eLm

    January 25, 2025 at 2:50 pm

    This “article” repeated the exact same thing/threat stated in the first paragraph. Afterwords it simple filled pages with words (pablum). Amazing that stretching space was worthy of the author.

  11. Mike

    January 25, 2025 at 8:32 pm

    Every time US only think about is how to win war with military weapons but not with diplomacy. The psyche of American thinking of winning battle with destruction of either the lives of people in other countries or the wellbeing of people across the world never made it to the minds of the American, and this is the country which calls itself a righteous nation.

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