Key Points and Summary: China’s militarized artificial islands in the South China Sea have dramatically reshaped regional power dynamics, but doubts persist about their defensibility in war. Although analysts question China’s ability to sustain these isolated outposts, Beijing’s primary goal is likely regional intimidation rather than direct confrontation with the U.S.
-In a conflict scenario, attacking the fortified islands could prove costly for America, draining critical resources needed elsewhere.
-China’s aim is to undermine regional confidence in U.S. protection, asserting dominance without outright war. Thus, Washington faces difficult strategic choices—protecting Taiwan and allies without escalating into a catastrophic and potentially nuclear conflict.
China’s South China Sea Islands: Strategic Bluff or Military Stronghold?
The Chinese have spent years illegally constructing seven man-made islands in the South China Sea. They have lined some of the islands with anti-aircraft and anti-ship defenses.
The islands are part of Beijing’s aggressive approach in the South China Sea, where China lays dubious claim to 1.3 million square miles of ocean space.
Significantly, the Spratly Islands are in this sea, close to the Philippines. China has built three airfields on the Spratlys, with hangars to house 72 aircraft. The airbase on Woody Island in the Paracels holds 16 more hangars.
Six other nations—the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Taiwan—claim the waterways where China’s artificial islands sit. Since 2014, China has built up these tiny man-made islands, putting up massive military structures and defenses, including Fiery Cross Reef, which has an airfield, missiles, and other equipment. It is located 620 miles from the Chinese coast.
But while these are bold, aggressive moves, could the Chinese protect these islands in a war?
Many Analysts Doubt China Could Defend The Islands
A few years ago, Yun Sun, East Asia Program senior associate at the Stimson Center, said Beijing was “telling the United States that China is not trying to have a war with the U.S. in the South China Sea and China cannot even win a war in the South China Sea.”
No disrespect to Sun, but I doubt China believes this. Beijing built and fortified these islands for a reason. Still, I do believe it was not explicitly for a war with the United States. If there is a shooting war with the U.S., China would expect hostilities to focus much farther north, around Taiwan.
Eduardo Araral, associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s public policy school, said the islands are too far for China to keep resupplied in the case of a war.
“In terms of any confrontation, they would be the first to go, I could imagine,” he said. “It’s too strategic not to be taken down.”
Are These Islands Defensible?
In the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, most analysts predict the Chinese would start shooting at American ships and planes. But that might not actually happen. What if China limits its attacks to Taiwan?
It would be a risky move, but if the Chinese don’t attack other U.S. allies, or any of its ships and aircraft, would the U.S. attack China first over Taiwan?
If the shooting does start, most analysts, even some based in China, believe China’s navy wouldn’t be able to protect the islands for long. That may prove to be true. However, these analysts must consider that the U.S. won’t have the same air and maritime domination it enjoyed for 80 years. Superiority in this region belongs to China, and these island defenses, despite having no natural cover and concealment, have been hardened. Knocking them out would take an inordinate amount of assets the U.S. can’t spare. The question would be whether risking these sea and air assets is worth it, considering what little would be gained.
China built these islands not for war with the United States, but to place pressure on the civilians who live in and around the area. None of the countries in the area have the navy needed to stand up to Chinese harassment.
Thus China is already exerting control over the South China Sea, which shows other nations that the U.S. isn’t a sufficient security partner in the region.
Is A War Inevitable? Or Does The US Abandon Taiwan?
President Donald Trump doesn’t want to go down in history as the president who abandoned Taiwan. That would tarnish his legacy and make it much more difficult for J.D. Vance or another Republican candidate in 2028 to get elected.
Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) leads guided-missile cruiser USS Antietam (CG 54) prior to conducting an air power demonstration. The air power demonstration showed the capability of Stennis and Carrier Air Wing 9 to service members’ family and friends who were invited to get underway with the ship. Stennis is returning to the United States after a 7 month long deployment promoting peace, regional cooperation and stability, and supporting the global war on terrorism.
But open war with China could be the bloodiest war in U.S. history. With long-range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, it could be an absolute nightmare. And it would be a war the U.S. could easily lose. On the other hand, the U.S. could also win a conventional war with China, and the president would be a hero.
But the administration must also seek a third option, one where Washington could guarantee Taiwan’s protection without resorting to war.
The world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), steams in the Mediterranean Sea, Dec. 24, 2023. The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is currently operating in the Mediterranean Sea. The U.S. maintains forward-deployed, ready, and postured forces to deter aggression and support security and stability around the world. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jacob Mattingly)
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
