Article Summary and 4 Key Points: With only 187 F-22 Raptor fighters produced, the U.S. Air Force faces a potential shortage of stealth air superiority fighters in a prolonged war.
-Originally cut due to cost concerns and shifting priorities, the F-22 remains one of the world’s most advanced jets.
-While Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth prioritizes uncrewed combat aircraft and missile defense, some argue human-piloted fighters like the F-22 are irreplaceable.
-The U.S. may not have enough Raptors to sustain large-scale conflict across multiple theaters, raising concerns about force readiness.
-As collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) programs develop, manned fighters remain essential for air superiority and deterrence.
The F-22 Raptor Shortage: Can America Win a Prolonged Air War?
We often focus on future warfare scenarios at 19FortyFive, and our analysts are actively trying to figure out the US order of battle and the American force posture.
One aspect of US defense policy is the most advantageous number of significant end items like surface ships, submarines, stealth bombers, and fighter jets.
What is the level of military hardware that can win wars without breaking the bank? How will the upcoming budget cuts instigated by Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Pete Hegseth affect the defense acquisition process? Can the United States procure enough platforms to win a war?
Let’s examine the F-22 program to see if these questions can be answered.
The history of the F-22 is an excellent case study.
Difficult Decision to Stop F-22 Raptor Fighters Production
One decision in 2009 during the reign of Defense Secretary Robert Gates was to curtail the number of F-22s. He decided to stop new deliveries of the stealth Raptors in 2009 because he figured the airplane served as Cold War-era air superiority.
The F-22 was a solution in search of a problem in his mind. Combat against the terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq required close air support. The F-22 was not meant for ground strikes to save soldiers and marines conducting land warfare.
Only about 195 F-22s were produced before the final halt to the program in 2011.
The US wanted to build hundreds more at one point. Was stopping production the correct decision? Now, the United States needs every F-22 that can be put into the sky.
The warbird deployed to East Asia last year to participate in Guam and South Korea military exercises.
Many Flashpoints Where the F-22 Would Be Useful
It would be nice to have more permanent F-22 squadrons in the Indo-Pacific. But that’s not the only region where they could be useful. What about Europe and the Middle East?
Russia is obviously a problem as the American side is feverishly working on a ceasefire, but even with a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine, the United States still has its commitment to NATO, and that means stealth fighter jets are needed in Europe.
The Middle East is a problem area with threats from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
Israel has air superiority in the region, but the United States is having to deal with the pesky Iranian-backed Houthi militants who are making it difficult for the Navy in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
F-22s could boost US power projection in the Central Command area of operations.
New Broom Sweeps Clean With Different Strategy
SECDEF Hegseth has different ideas for US defense strategy and wishes to pull back some US commitments in Europe and the Middle East. He wants the Pentagon to focus on continental missile defense with an Iron Dome type of umbrella, Southern border patrolling, and Virginia-class submarines. He is calling to cut $50 billion from the FY26 defense budget.
Hegseth would likely argue that the F-22 is outdated and that the United States should build more uncrewed fighters and focus on additional battlefield drones for land warriors.
The F-22 Has Many Advantages
But the F-22 is one of the world’s most advanced, stealthy, and maneuverable dogfighters. Pilots love it, and even though some policymakers want them to retire in 2030 due to their difficult-to-update features and outdated capabilities, the airplane still has a place in modern warfare, according to its fans.
Is It Better to Have Human Pilots?
Great power conflict could turn the new defense priorities on their head without enough F-22s. What if Hegseth is wrong about drone fighter jets? US pilots are trained exceedingly well. Many have combat experience.
They have a passion for flight and can communicate effectively with ground control. Plus, you can’t beat a human pilot who can Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act (OODA) better than a drone.
These pilots would argue that the military can’t have enough stealth fighters and that the United States should have built more. In warfare, the Air Force will need a high number of airplanes in the air at once.
There could be a situation during Day Three, Four, and Five days of combat with either Russia, Iran, North Korea, or China that the Americans could run out of fighters before enough could arrive in the theater.
Proponents of autonomous uncrewed fighters believe they can be made cheaper and are thus more expendable. The Air Force calls these Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), and they have a future if manned fighters can control them. However, war is a human endeavor. It boils down to who has the best trained and most effective personnel.
My money is on the stealth fighters and their human pilots. There may not be enough manned fighters to fight an effective war, and while we wait for the CCAs to come online, human fighter pilots must answer the challenge.
Hegseth could be surprised that if combat ensues in a broader war, there may not be enough F-22s to fight a longer-term conflict.
F-22 Raptor: A Story in Photos
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor conducts a heritage flight during the 2022 Marine Corps Air Station Miramar Air Show at MCAS Miramar, San Diego, California, Sept. 24, 2022. The F-22 Raptor is the Air Force’s fifth-generation fighter aircraft. Its combination of stealth, super-cruise, maneuverability, and integrated avionics, coupled with improved supportability, represents an exponential leap in war-fighting capabilities. The theme for the 2022 MCAS Miramar Air Show, “Marines Fight, Evolve and Win,” reflects the Marine Corps’ ongoing modernization efforts to prepare for future conflicts. (U.S. Air Force photo by Adam Bowles)
A P-51D Mustang and F-22 Raptor participate in a traditional “Heritage Flight” during the 2022 Marine Corps Air Station Miramar Air Show at MCAS Miramar, San Diego, California, Sept. 24, 2022. The theme for the 2022 MCAS Miramar Air Show, “Marines Fight, Evolve and Win,” reflects the Marine Corps’ ongoing modernization efforts to prepare for future conflicts. (U.S. Air Force photo by Adam Bowles)
Maj. Joshua “Cabo” Gunderson, F-22 Demo Team pilot and commander, preforms a F-22 Raptor demonstration at the Space Coast Int. Air Show, May 22, 2022, with this video taken from inside the cockpit of an F-22.
F-22 Raptor. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
F-22 Raptor. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
F-22 Raptor. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
