Key Point and Summary: Though none of the American-designed F-35 stealth fighters have combat experience in Ukraine, it is increasingly apparent that many NATO countries’ current fourth-generation fighter fleets would struggle to maintain superiority in highly contested environments.
-That means the F-35 is now the ‘hot’ fighter jet almost every NATO nation would love to buy, or is in the process of buying, despite the cost.
Why NATO Is Doubling Down on the F-35 After Ukraine
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the security landscape in Ukraine has shifted significantly.
Not only has NATO welcomed two new members, Finland and Sweden, but the alliance has also witnessed the most significant injection of resources in a generation since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the spending boost? The F-35 stealth fighter.
F-35 Wins the Ukraine War? In A Way, Yes
A number of significant deals have been inked with the United States to purchase the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, either to expand existing fleets or to replace old aircraft with the fifth-generation fighter.
The impetus for investment into the American platform has been the lesson of the air war in Ukraine. Hindered both by modern as well as Cold War-era air defenses, the conflict has shown that fourth-generation aircraft struggle on the battlefield.
And without control of the air, the fight on the ground in Ukraine has turned into a grinding, attritional struggle with echoes of the First World War over a century before.
Several nations, therefore, have decided that despite the steep price tag compared to older fighters, the F-35, with its stealth capabilities, advanced sensors, and networking capabilities, is an increasingly necessary upgrade to prepare for future conflicts in an increasingly hostile environment.
Increased European Interest in the F-35
Germany was one of the first countries to respond to Europe’s dramatically altered security situation by finalizing an order of 35 F-35A fighters in December of 2022.
Prompted in part by Russia’s full-scale invasion earlier that year, the order was a crucial investment for Germany and, in particular, NATO’s nuclear sharing mission.
The German F-35s would replace Berlin’s very aged Tornado fleet, currently the only jets in German inventories capable of delivering American nuclear weapons as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing agreement.
Poland, too, has invested heavily in the F-35 program and, indeed, its military writ large following Russia’s invasion.
A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II aircraft assigned to the 34th Fighter Squadron receives fuel from a KC-10 Extender aircraft over Poland, February 24, 2022. U.S. Air Force/Senior Airman Joseph Barron/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
In 2020, Warsaw ordered an initial tranche of 32 F-35s, and since 2022, it has been expanding its defense budget significantly.
In 2024, the U.S. government announced a $2 billion military loan to Poland, partly to support additional purchases of F-35s as well as other advanced weapon systems. The Polish government justified this investment by pointing to the lessons learned from Ukraine, arguing that a strong, modernized air force is necessary to deter potential threats from an increasingly revanchist Russia.
Romania, another NATO member bordering Ukraine, has followed suit. In September 2024, the U.S. approved the potential sale of 32 F-35s to Romania in a deal valued at $7.2 billion. Like Poland, Romanian officials have made clear that the war in Ukraine has reinforced the importance of investing in modern capabilities, particularly stealth aircraft that can operate in highly contested airspace.
This purchase aligns with Romania’s broader effort to phase out its older fighter jets and integrate more closely with NATO air operations.
The Netherlands, which has already been operating F-35s for several years, announced in 2024 that it would make additional purchases to increase its F-35 fleet.
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
This decision came as part of a broader defense spending hike aimed partly at meeting NATO’s military spending goals. Dutch officials cited the need to maintain air superiority in an environment where adversaries are deploying increasingly sophisticated air defenses.
Defense Thinking: a Broader Shift
Beyond individual national procurement decisions, the expansion of the F-35 program in Europe reflects, in part, a broader shift in how countries view their security postures. The war in Ukraine has highlighted that maintaining military capabilities is essential for deterrence.
Under the realization that the post-Cold War peace dividend is no longer the reality, most NATO members are reversing course, with some pouring significant resources into bolstering defense capabilities.
For the F-35 program, this has been translated into increased demand for the world’s only production stealth fighter available for export. The F-35’s advanced stealth capabilities dovetail with the NATO countries’ motivation to bolster interoperable capabilities within the alliance.
Among the myriad takeaways from the war in Ukraine, one of the most significant has been that to deter unfettered aggression, it pays to be prepared.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
