Key Points and Summary: The U.S. Navy faces a major decision: move forward with the advanced SSN(X) attack submarine or continue upgrading the Virginia-class. With SSN(X) expected to cost over $5.5 billion per hull—compared to $3.2 billion for Virginia-class subs—budget concerns may force the Navy to delay SSN(X) until the 2040s.
-Congressional leaders and Navy officials lean toward extending Virginia-class production, while the newly nominated Secretary of the Navy, John Phelan, may prioritize cost-cutting.
-With China and Russia rapidly expanding their submarine fleets, the Navy must choose wisely—does the future lie with the tried-and-true Virginia-class or the cutting-edge SSN(X)?
The Navy’s Big Decision: The Newfangled SSN(X) Submarine or Updating Virginia-class
The U.S. Navy’s next-generation SSN(X) attack submarine could become stillborn in the crib without more buy-in from naval brass and lawmakers.
It is looking to be highly expensive and is competing for funding with other futuristic naval vessels, such as the whiz-bang DDG(X) destroyer.
There may not be enough money and resources to complete the heavy lift for the SSN(X), although the new program has many redeeming features.
The Navy may instead decide to keep upgrading the Virginia-class submarine for the next few decades until the new Pete Hegseth-led Department of Defense decides what the future submarine force will look like.
Virginia-class Upgrades May Make More Sense than the SSN(X)
Last fall the Navy signaled it wished to extend the Virginia-class Block VIII program while looking to push back the arrival of the SSN(X). Admiral Bill Houston spoke at a conference in November and shared clues about the future intentions of the Navy regarding the Virginia-class and SSN(X).
“If you look at us as a Navy, we have said that we’re going to continue to build Virginia … We’re looking to go to a Block VIII. We are proceeding on with SSN(X) in after that,” Houston said.
“We are also looking at maintaining that large hull platform of the Columbia class. And to be clear, the nuclear posture says at least 12 Columbias. And I think if you look at the threats around the world, there may be a need for more Columbias.”
That is an interesting comment and requires peering into the text more closely. Houston does not foresee the SSN(X) making a cameo for several more decades as the Virginia-class Block VIII and Columbia-class take precedence over the next-generation submarine. It may just show that the Navy realizes that SSN(X) is too expensive compared to updating to the Block VIII standard and buying more Columbia-class boats.
Service Branch Rivalries Have Their Own Pet Programs
This is probably what the Navy brass is going to recommend for the Secretary of the Navy, his acquisition chief, and the new Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.
The number and quality of submarines is a sensitive topic for the Navy. On the one hand, the maritime branch wants to increase the number of submarines, while the surface fleet officers and aviation commanders are more prone to favor the DDG(X) or more Ford-class carriers.
This rivalry among the different service branches within the Navy is nothing new and Secretary of the Navy nominee John Phelan will have his hands full, keeping all the factions happy.
New Navy Secretary Nominee Could Bring Out the Sharp Cutting Shears
Phelan’s background is serving as a private equity investor and financial expert who will likely bring cost-cutting to the Navy. Does that mean the SSN(X) is on the chopping block? We will see if Phelan favors new or existing subs, a modern destroyer, or emphasizing the Ford-class carrier program.
Budget tightness is expected as the mercurial Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency can always set its sights on the Navy and determine that manned submarines should be curtailed in favor of small and cheap autonomous undersea drones, for example.
Congress Appears to Favor the Virginia-class
Meanwhile, Congress has something to say too about future submarine development. U.S. Senator Roger Wicker, chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, favors the upgraded Virginia-class.
He wrote a letter last year signed by other senators that extolled the virtues of that boat.
“Attack submarine capabilities remain one of our most distinct national security advantages. In recent years, Congress has heard disturbing testimony regarding growing capabilities and heightened undersea activity of competitors like Russia and China,” the letter to other appropriators in Congress said. “The Virginia-class submarine continues to be a critical asset for combatant commanders to deter our adversaries and sustain our asymmetric advantage in the undersea domain.”
Does that mean Wicker and his colleagues would vote for Virginia-class upgrades over the SSN(X) or punt to future years in the annual National Defense Authorization Act? That’s not clear, but we will keep an eye on the next NDAA for clues.
Image of Block III US Navy Virginia-class Submarine.
SSN(X) Would Be a Nice Addition to the Fleet
The Navy hopes the SSN(X) will be the stealthiest boat on earth with ultra-long range, very fast speed, and chock full of high-performance torpedoes with more munitions on board than the Virginia-class.
However, the SSN(X) could cost more than $5.5 billion per hull. That is much more than the Virginia-class at $3.2 billion.
This does not look good for the SSN(X). It could come down to a simple cost comparison. However, the Navy can afford to allocate research and development dollars – say, a couple hundred million dollars a year to keep the program top of mind and advance to the design phase.
But the Virginia-class Block VI makes more sense now. The new Secretary of the Navy, should he be confirmed, will likely have a cost-cutting vibe that he gained from turning companies around that are losing money.
Virginia-Class. Image: US Navy.
He may put the brakes on the SSN(X) program and delay it until the 2040s when it can replace the older Virginia-class boats one-for-one.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
