Article Summary and Key Points: The B-1B Lancer, a Cold War-era strategic bomber, is nearing the end of its service life. Originally built for supersonic speed and long-range strike missions, the B-1B faces modern threats like advanced air defenses from Russia and China.
Key Point #1 – With the B-21 Raider set to replace it by 2030 and the B-52J still proving useful, the Lancer’s future looks bleak.
Key Point #2 – The CBO suggests retiring all B-1Bs by 2026, yet the Air Force keeps them operational, especially for anti-ship roles in the Indo-Pacific. Will the B-1B survive, or is it time for a final flight into retirement?
The B-1B Lancer Bomber Has a New Enemy: Father Time
Manufactured in the 1970s and 1980s and originally envisioned in the 1960s, the B-1B Lancer bomber is getting long in the tooth.
It is a non-stealth strategic bomber that the new B-21 Raider stealth warplane will eventually replace. The “Bone” as it is affectionately called, has a sterling combat record, but defense analysts and Air Force generals are wondering just how long this old airframe can remain in the skies on a regular basis.
The B-1B is currently in its twilight years. It has seen ups and downs throughout history. Unfortunately, the B-1B had maintenance and reliability problems. Thirty-three B-1B bombers were retired in 2021 to reduce maintenance costs for the other Lancers in the fleet.
Product of the Reagan-era Defense Build-up
The first B-1B bomber, the Star of Abilene, appeared at an air show at Dyess Air Force Base in Texas in 1985. An estimated 45,000 people were there to see the first flight of the B-1B. Star of Abilene was one of the bombers retired in 2021.
Serving Beyond Its Shelf-life
One hundred B-1Bs were built after the B-1A was canceled in the early 1970s. The final B-1B delivery was in 1988, so this was a Cold War-era warbird not envisioned to serve beyond the 2020s. It hasn’t been on nuclear alert since 1997. Its first combat deployment was for Operation Desert Fox in 1998. It then became a workhorse after 9/1, bombing enemy positions in Afghanistan and Iraq throughout those conflicts.
The B-1Bs were forward deployed outside of Dyess Air Force Base, and they flew out of Oman, Diego Garcia, and Qatar instead.
“Their loiter time, large payload, and ability to perform show of force flybys, as well as other unique capabilities, rapidly evolved them into one of the world’s most requested close air support platforms and a virtual flying arsenal ship. That’s a large contrast from the nuclear deterrent role for which the bomber was originally intended,” according to The War Zone.
It’s Still a Lethal Warbird
The main armament on B-1B is the JDAM precision-guided “smart” munitions and long-range cruise missiles. The airplane has been upgraded over the years to improve avionics, allowing the warbird to have better flight control systems and navigation. A new targeting pod was introduced in 2007, enabling the bomber to have more loitering time, which is essential for more accurate munitions.
However, there are questions about how well the B-1B would perform in contested airspace. The Russians are now up to the long-range S-500 variant of modern air defense systems. Could the B-1B survive in a dangerous environment over China and Russia?
The B-1B relies on its supersonic speed and was built when surface-to-air systems and radars were less mature. During the Global War on Terror, the B-1B crews did not have to worry about SAMs since the U.S. military always maintained air superiority. That has changed as near-peer adversaries can protect their airspace with modern systems.
Why Not Just Use the B-52 Bomber?
If the Air Force needs a non-stealth bomber, it can choose the B-52J to pack the extra punch. The B-52J can also launch cruise missiles. After air defenses have been suppressed, this B-52J deployment would come on the ensuing days of the fight. The B-1B is thus left out in the cold without a clear role in modern warfare.
CBO Says Get Rid Of All the B-1Bs Soon
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) even proposes to retire all B-1Bs by 2026, which would work as “shock therapy” that the Air Force and lawmakers would probably resist. CBO thinks the full retirement of the Lancers could save as much as $1.6 billion after the crews are re-assigned to other squadrons.
Despite the ominous warnings from spending watchdogs, the Air Force has not given up on the B-1B. The service branch even pulled one from the boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona to go on active duty last year.
A congressional mandate also calls for 45 active-duty B-1Bs until the B-21 Raider comes online.
One aspect that could keep the B-1B in favor is that it can fire an anti-ship missile called the LRASM (Long-Range Guided Anti-Ship Missile). This makes it valuable if it had to engage Chinese warships when flying out of Guam. This capability is badly needed in the Indo-Pacific as the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has more ships than the U.S. Navy.
Still, the B-1B has a limited mission set, and there are valid questions about its survivability. It served the nation well during its deployment in the Central Command area of operations during the Global War on Terror.
It probably shouldn’t be completely retired in 2026 like the CBO envisions, but its days are limited. The bomber still has reliability problems, and many have been resting at the Boneyard to be cannibalized for spare parts. We should see the B-1B replaced by the B-21 Raider when that stealth bomber is available in numbers by 2030.
B-1B Lancer Bomber: A Story in Photos
U.S. Air Force maintainers from Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, work 24/7 servicing and inspecting the B-1B Lancer. They are maintainers within the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing’s 34th Expeditionary Aircraft Maintenance Unit (nicknamed “the backbone of the bone”) and provide hundreds of thousands of manpower hours during six month deployments to Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar. Maintainers comprise approximately a dozen different career specialties to ensure the aircraft flies and meets mission throughout the Middle East. The Lancer carries the largest conventional payload of guided and unguided weapons in the Air Force inventory.
A B-1B Lancer from the 28th Air Expeditionary Wing (EW), maneuvers to receive fuel while on a bombing mission, in support of Operation ENDURING FREEDOM.
B-1B Lancer. Image: Creative Commons.
B-1B Lancer from the 337th Test and Evaluation Squadron stands by as another Lancer connects with a KC-135 Stratotanker for inflight refueling during a mission over the Gulf of Mexico near Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., Feb. 23, 2012. The 337th TES is a geographically separated unit of the 53rd Wing, which is headquartered at Eglin AFB. The 337th TES is responsible for operational testing of all B-1B defensive and offensive systems and weapons upgrades. (Courtesy photo/Jake Melampy)
Four U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers assigned to the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, deployed from Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, arrive Feb. 6, 2017, at Andersen AFB, Guam. The 9th EBS is taking over U.S. Pacific Command’s Continuous Bomber Presence operations from the 34th EBS, assigned to Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D. The B-1B’s speed and superior handling characteristics allow it to seamlessly integrate in mixed force packages. These capabilities, when combined with its substantial payload, excellent radar targeting system, long loiter time and survivability, make the B-1B a key element of any joint/composite strike force. While deployed at Guam the B-1Bs will continue conducting flight operations where international law permit. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Richard P. Ebensberger/Released)
Two B-1B Bombers. Image Credit: US Air Force.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
