Article Summary: Ukraine’s newly acquired Mirage 2000 fighters add to its air force, but their impact remains uncertain. With modern air defenses dominating the battlefield, both Ukraine and Russia have struggled to achieve air superiority, limiting the effectiveness of non-stealthy 4th-generation jets.
Key #1 – While the Mirage 2000 can fire long-range Storm Shadow missiles, Russian S-400 and S-500 systems pose a major threat. Additionally, Russian Su-35s outmatch the Mirage in thrust-to-weight ratio and maneuverability, making air-to-air engagements risky.
Key #2 – Unless deployed carefully, the Mirage 2000 may be more symbolic than strategically transformative in Ukraine’s ongoing fight for the skies.
4 Words: It Won’t Do Much
Why the Mirage 2000 Faces Major Challenges in Ukraine
The arrival of the French-built Mirage 2000 in Ukraine is a significant development.
However, the reality of the ongoing war may suggest otherwise, given that neither force has been able to establish air superiority.
Taking the Longview on Mirage 2000 and the Ukraine War
At first, the reality of the air war in Ukraine seemed mysterious and even inexplicable, given that Russia massively outnumbers Ukraine in the realm of fighter jets.
However, the emerging story has confirmed what is now widely known: that 4th-generation fighter jets are far too vulnerable to both Russian and Ukrainian air defenses.
The Mirage 2000 supports many countries around the world and is certainly highly regarded; however, it is a 4th-generation fighter, and no “non-stealthy” fighters have been able to prevail in the air.
The reason is apparent, as it was clearly articulated earlier in the war when Pentagon officials explained that Russian fighter pilots were “risk averse” and conscious of how effective Ukrainian air defenses are.
Russia does not have sufficient numbers of its stealthy Su-57, despite some reports it has entered the war, indicating that virtually all the fighters in the conflict are 4th-generation at best.
The reality seems clear, as it does not appear any 4th-generation aircraft can operate against modern air defenses such as the Russian S-400 & S-500 and the US-provided Ukrainian National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System NASAMS.
Ukraine has no F-35s and has been challenged to operate F-16s over areas well-defended by Russian air defenses. A similar scenario can be described regarding Russian aircraft, as even advanced 4th-generation Su-27s and upgraded Su-35s would likely suffer from an access and attack program when operating against NASAMS.
Ukraine would likely prevail quickly if a NATO ally were willing to deploy F-35s, something likely considered far too risky in terms of Russia-NATO escalation.
An F-35 Lightning II assigned to the 62nd Fighter Squadron, Luke Air Force Base, Ariz., sits in a hangar ahead of operations for the F-35 Lightning II TDY, Oct. 28, 2021, at Joint Base San Antonio-Kelly Field, Texas. The 62nd FS will be training with F-16s from the 149th Fighter Wing and the 301st Fighter Wing, along with T-38s from the 301st Fighter Wing. The multi-role capabilities of the F-35 allows them to perform missions which traditionally required numerous specialized aircraft. The complimentary air superiority capabilities of the F-35 will augment our air superiority fleet and ensure we continue to “own the skies” over future battlefields. (U.S. Air Force photo by Brian G. Rhodes)
What Can the Mirage 2000 Achieve in the Ukraine War?
The only potential advantage or help the Dassault Mirage 2000 may provide is an ability to mass fires and support ground operations in areas that are less contested by Russian SAMs.
Also, an interesting essay in EurAsian Times says the Mirage 2000 can be armed with long-range, British-built Storm Shadow missiles.
However, this potential is offset by range, given that the Storm Shadow is listed with ranges of roughly 150 miles, something well within the reach of Russian air defenses.
Also, less-contested areas are likely difficult to find, given that Russian air defenses can reach hundreds of miles on a broad range of frequencies.
The Danger of Russian Air Defenses
Russian air defenses are also increasingly networked with digital computing to pass or share target track details from one node to another.
While these advanced defenses may be unable to stop 5th-gen fighters entirely, they appear to have simply “denied” access to Ukrainian 4th-gen fighters.
What Else Could the Mirage 2000 Fighter Do
The only potentially impactful variable with the Mirage is speed, as the fighter is listed as capable of a speedy Mach 2.2.
However, this speed is equivalent to or slower than Russia’s Sukhoi Su-35.
Su-35. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Perhaps of greater significance, the Mirage 2000 is heavy and disadvantaged by an inferior .93 thrust-to-weight ratio, suggesting it is not likely to perform successfully against Russian Su-35 and Su-27 4th-gen aircraft, which operate with a vastly superior 1.2 and 1.3 thrust-to-weight ratio.
Therefore, regarding a potential air-to-air engagement, the Mirage 2000 would seem challenged to rival Russian 4th-gen fighters.
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
