Article Summary: China’s efforts to export its J-10 and J-20 fighter jets are faltering. Unlike the U.S. F-35, which dominates the market, China’s jets lack combat experience, face engine reliability issues, and suffer from weak customer support. The language barrier, high costs, and Beijing’s poor diplomatic relations further limit foreign interest.
Key Point #1 – Buyers also prefer the combat-proven Russian Su-57 over the J-20.
Key Point #2 – If China hopes to compete globally, it must improve its military alliances and after-sales support. Until then, its dream of rivaling U.S. and Russian fighter exports remains out of reach.
China’s J-10 and J-20 Fighters Are Struggling to Find Buyers – Here’s Why
China wants a mature and modern military that can do more than just defend the homeland and protect its sovereignty. One way to show the world that it means business is to attempt to export fighter jets to other countries.
An export deal gives the country bragging rights that it has a grown-up military. This power grab is conducted by what I call “fighter plane diplomacy.” China does not have a lot of friends in East Asia, but foreign military sales is one way that it can increase its influence to become a global force when it comes to manufacturing military hardware the world wants to buy.
What Airplanes Are for Sale?
China is pursuing the sale of its J-10 and J-20 fighters, but with limited success. The J-10 could be compared to the F-16 Fighting Falcon, while the J-20 is more like the F-22 Raptor or F-35 Lightning II. The J-10 and J-20 should be a hit on the export market, but China is finding that business is slow.
The Americans are enjoying more success with their fighter sales. The F-22 is not available for foreign buyers, but the F-35 has been a huge success story with numerous fighters sold around the world to American allies.
The F-16 has also proliferated in many countries, including Ukraine, where it is beginning to make a difference in the war by shooting down Russian cruise missiles.
No Combat Experience
One of the problems with the Chinese jets is that they are not combat-proven like their American counterparts. Chinese pilots often fly training missions that encroach on Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone in tactics called “grey zone warfare,” but this is still simulated combat.
They fly on other patrols around northeast Asia, but this is still not to the level of war experience that American pilots have who fly the F-22, F-35, and F-16.
Can Anyone Here Speak Mandarin?
The language barrier is also a problem. The Chinese jets have technical manuals for maintenance and repairs in Mandarin. These would require translation into the languages of the countries that ordered them. Would China also agree to train foreign pilots like the United States does?
That remains to be seen. Sellers cannot just deliver the airplane and turn their backs on customers. Countries that buy exported fighters as advanced as the fifth-generation stealthy J-20 need a high level of customer support, and China does not have this kind of experience.
The Engines Are Complex Because They are Based on Russian Designs
The Chinese engines on the J-10 and J-20 are derived from Russian models. This is another challenging issue with maintenance and repair. Ground crews would have to be trained to keep these power plants running. This requires a high level of expertise and training that China may not be able to transfer to its customers.
The Russian-derived engines are also expensive, making the total cost of the airplanes pricier. Engines wear out and need replacement. Would the Chinese be able to produce more power plants for foreign customers? As you can see, foreign military sales are complex and not easy to conduct.
Which J-20 Model Is for Sale?
The other problem is upgrading and modernizing these airplanes. China is striving to rejuvenate and update the J-20. “The upgrades may include increasing the number of air-to-air missiles the fighter can carry in its low-observable configuration, installing thrust-vectoring engine nozzles, and adding super cruise capability by installing higher-thrust indigenous WS-15 engines,” according to Warrior Maven.
Does that mean the older J-20s that do not receive the upgrades can become export models? China would have to decide soon whether these older models would be the ones to sell overseas. This requires planning and coordination.
What is a fair price for the J-20, and could it cost around $30 to $50 million like the Su-57 Felon on sale by Russia? Any price over $50 million and other countries would choose the Su-57. Algeria has just entered into an agreement to buy the Su-57, and China must have noticed that deal.
There are also diplomatic concerns. If “fighter plane diplomacy” is real, then China is failing at the game. Foreign military sales require long-term friendships and alliances that date back several decades. Due to militarizing various islands, rocks, and reefs where other countries have territorial claims, China has wasted much goodwill, especially with Vietnam and the Philippines—two natural customers for the J-10 and J-20.
NATO allies are not going to purchase Chinese-made weapons systems. Turkey once tried to buy a missile defense system from Beijing, which was canceled due to pressure tactics from NATO members. China is just not a popular country.
China is learning that foreign military sales are complicated. The price must be right. There must be high levels of integration between the seller and buyer. Maintenance and upkeep are difficult, and this requires an expensive and long-term commitment.
Diplomacy must be successful and have a historical basis. Plus, airplanes need to have combat experience. China is, therefore, striking out when it comes to selling J-10 and J-20s. If they want to be successful at fighter plane diplomacy, they must first strive to improve relations with other countries. Beijing has a long way to go before it can succeed in the export market with these fighters.
J-20 Fighter Photo Essay
J-20 Fighter from PLAAF China
J-20 Fighter. Image Credit: Chinese Internet.
J-20 Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: Industry Handout.
J-20 Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
J-20 Fighter.
J-20 Fighter. Image Credit: Chinese internet.
J-20 Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
J-20 Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
