Summary and Key Points: Canada’s Victoria-class submarines, originally purchased second-hand from the UK in the late 1990s, are nearing the end of their operational life. To address this looming capability gap, Ottawa has initiated the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, aiming for up to 12 new, ice-capable, diesel-electric submarines.
-Until these replacements enter service—potentially in the mid-2030s—Canada will modernize the existing Victoria-class subs.
-However, with procurement timelines possibly stretching beyond two decades, concerns remain about maintaining Canada’s underwater operational capabilities. This transitional period highlights challenges in budget constraints and timing, underscoring the complexity of submarine procurement and the risks of a critical capability gap.
Canada’s Victoria-Class Submarines Can’t Hide from Father Time
The Royal Canadian Navy currently operates four Victoria-class submarines, which were acquired from the United Kingdom in the late 1990s, but have since grown long in the tooth.
These diesel-electric attack submarines, originally acquired second-hand from the United Kingdom, are expected to remain in service until between 2034 and 2040.
Still, for now, no replacement submarine has yet been chosen.
Canadian Patrol Submarine
The federal government has launched the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project to find a new fleet of conventionally powered submarines.
The government has previously said that up to 12 new submarines could be purchased, with a focus on ensuring the new vessels can operate under ice to maintain Canada’s security interests in the Arctic, given the country’s enormous coastline, much of which is frozen for a great part or all of the year.
However, specific decisions about what exactly will replace the Victoria-class are still open questions, though there have been some indications about capability requirements.
Victoria-class Modernization
The government of Canada opted to modernize the Victoria-class in the meantime to keep the submarines operational until the mid-2030s or so when the proposed new submarines are operational.
The Canadian government explained that “the Victoria-class Modernization (VCM) will provide modernized and increased capability which will maintain the Victoria-class submarines’ (VCS) operational relevance through the mid-2030s. VCM is considered a series of 17 individual projects implemented on a common platform to generate the necessary capability for Canada’s submarinesas detailed in Strong, Secure, Engaged: Canada’s Defence Policy.”
The Canadian government also said, “Overall, the modernization outcomes will make Canada and its allies stronger and safer by:
Improving the habitability and deployment conditions onboard the VCS for Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) submariners;
Positioning the VCS to contribute meaningfully to Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Joint Operations ashore; and
Ensuring the survivability of the VCS against current and evolving threats in an increasingly complex and changing battle space.”
Problems Are Lerking Below the Surface
However, despite the efforts of the Victoria-class Modernization program, there are still concerns about the potential for a capability gap between the retirement of the Victoria-class and the deployment of their replacements. Submarine acquisition programs are complex and can take years, if not decades, to complete.
Canada spends less than 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense projects, giving the country very little wiggle room in the event of cost overruns caused by schedule delays or unforeseen costs. Trouble may already be brewing.
The Ottawa Citizen, a Canadian daily newspaper, reported the following.
“The procurement timeline from project establishment to contract award is highly specific to the project, but staff analysis has shown that the procurement of a new submarine class will take a minimum of 15 years total from project establishment to first delivery and could exceed 25 years depending on the adopted procurement strategy,” DND and military officials told then-Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan in a briefing note on Jan. 6, 2021.
Canada’s plans for replacing the Victoria-class are still on the drawing board, and the coming years will be crucial in determining if Canada can transition to a new submarine fleet or whether unforeseen delays or costs will lead to a serious reduction in the country’s submarine fleet and therefore its underwater capabilities.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
