Summary and Key Points: Canada’s military modernization strategy faces significant gaps, especially in its heavy armor or tank capabilities.
-Despite the ambitious vision outlined in Canada’s 2024 Defence Paper emphasizing AI, drones, hypersonics, and digital transformation, critical issues remain unresolved.
-Canada’s Leopard 2 tank fleet suffers from inadequate maintenance, reduced numbers, and limited modernization, compromising ground force effectiveness and NATO commitments.
-Although advanced technologies such as AI-enabled networking and drone warfare are important, the war in Ukraine highlights the continued necessity of tanks to hold territory and maintain deterrence.
-Without addressing its tank shortfall, Canada risks weakening its defense posture against evolving global threats.
Canada’s Tank Forces Is Rotting Away
Despite being plagued by a small budget, recruiting problems, and ineffective modernization, the Canadian military appears to be making an effort to keep pace with global technological progress and integrate AI, networking, hypersonics, and small drones into its Concepts of Operation.
Referring to Canada as a key founding member of NATO, the Defence paper seeks to map out Canada’s military transformation into the digital age and the era of unmanned systems.
However, Canada is experiencing problems with its tank fleet, as many of its German-made Leopard 2 tanks have not been maintained or sufficiently modernized, and the fleet itself is dwindling.
While the Canadian Defense paper talks about the military’s commitment to NATO, and Canada has sent tanks to Latvia to help NATO deter Russia, its own tank fleet is in disrepair.
Canada’s Military Modernization Problem
Despite this tank problem, the Canadian military appears to be disproportionately emphasizing a handful of next-generation technologies at the expense of maintaining heavy armor.
This is somewhat destructive to Canada’s overall military progress because the country’s military is already behind in critical areas such as AI, hypersonic defense, or drone swarm tactics.
Citing objectives can be a useful beginning, yet the Canadian paper was at almost a complete loss in suggesting any potential solution to the hypersonic threat.
“Hypersonic technology enables missiles to move at faster speeds than ever before and in unpredictable patterns, making them much harder to detect and intercept.
Along with cruise and ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles threaten to overwhelm our existing air defense systems and impose new constraints on our ability to support allies and partners around the world,” the Canadian Defence paper states.
Similarly, the text of Canada’s military paper emphasizes the large and well-known degree to which small drones are changing warfare. Still, it neglects to offer any potential solutions or path forward necessary to address the threat.
“Small drones are now being manufactured at high volume and low cost, and are changing warfare from Ukraine to the Red Sea. They are used for reconnaissance and striking targets; in some instances drones that cost just a few hundred dollars have destroyed multi-million dollar platforms. Canada must be prepared to counter these threats as well as deploy robust drone capabilities,” the text states.
Canadian Tank Problem
While these initiatives are important, the Canadian military is operating with a significant tank and armored vehicle deficit. AI, drones, and hypersonics are both defining and here to stay, yet Ukraine has shown the world that there is still a great need for heavy armor and tanks when it comes to gaining and holding ground.
High-speed networking, AI-enabled computing, and drone swarms can achieve a combat impact by destroying targets, exacting a toll on an enemy, and defending critical areas; they are insufficient to maintain or hold gained ground in any land war.
Swarms of drones might blanket the perimeter with intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), or defensive explosives, yet tanks are ultimately what is needed to break through enemy fortifications and advance forces into new territory.
Canadian Armed Forces members with the Royal Canadian Dragoons, currently deployed on Operation REASSURANCE, take part in a live fire range for the Leopard 2 Main battle tank, with High Explosive ammunition, at Camp Adazi, in Adazi, Latvia, on 24 March, 2024.
Photo Credit: Corporal Bryan Bodo, Canadian Armed Forces Imagery Technician
This deficit is where Canada continues to have a problem, given the small fleet size and inadequate maintenance, sustainment, and modernization related to its tanks.
Canada’s tank problem also makes deterrence and any defensive posture quite difficult, given that strong, updated tanks would be needed to repel any large-scale land attack or attempted amphibious landing.
Heavy fires that can advance, maneuver, and maintain positions could protect the shoreline against any potential invader wishing to attack Canada’s shoreline from the ocean. Canada is not likely to be invaded by land, given its geographical position.
Yet, its Western border could be quite vulnerable to amphibious attack, and it may be an area where any potential adversary intended to attack North America might attempt to gain a land foothold on the North American continent.
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
