The human component remains one of the most important aspects of any platform, be it a tank, a fighter jet, or a stealth bomber. It’s one area in which the United States faces few peers—and is an area in which China has virtually no first-hand experience.
One of the more remarkable pieces of Chinese equipment is the People’s Liberation Army Air Force H-20, a stealthy bomber that recently made waves when photos of the aircraft went online. Though the H-20 has likely not yet entered mass production, let alone service, with the PLAAF, fielding a stealthy bomber is no mean feat.
The only country currently with a stealth bomber fleet is the United States, which operates the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. And there is another next-generation stealth bomber in the works, the B-21 Raider.
A successor to the B-2, the Raider is somewhat smaller but thought to have significantly improved stealth capabilities. Outwardly, both aircraft look similar and share the same basic flying wing airframe design. Like the earlier B-2, the upcoming Raider will be a cornerstone of the United States nuclear triad capable of delivering conventional, non-nuclear payloads.
Enter the H-20 Bomber
Hence, the clamor that accompanied the first views of the H-20 bomber. Though very little is known publicly about that stealth bomber, the Department of Defense has detailed some details of the H-20’s anticipated use in an unclassified report available to the general public.
“The PRC is developing a new generation of long-range bombers, likely named the H-20. The H-20, which may debut sometime in the next decade, will have a range of more than 10,000 km, enabling the PLAAF to cover the Second Island Chain and into the western region of the Pacific,” the Department of Defense report explains.
“The H-20 bomber’s range could be extended to cover the globe with aerial refueling. It is expected to employ conventional and nuclear weaponry and feature a stealthy design,” the analysis continues.
At first blush, the aircraft appears to be broadly similar to the FB-22, an unrealized supersonic stealth bomber proposed by Lockheed Martin as a derivative of the F-22 Raptor air superiority fighter. However, the PLAAF H-20 has a three-engine design, which is somewhat odd in combat aircraft design.
The stealth bomber’s design requirements are thought to include about 10 tons of payload capable of both land attack and anti-ship-type missions, and the bomber’s range is estimated at 5,000 miles, less than the B-2’s nearly 7,000-mile range—but double the B-21’s anticipated 2,500-mile range. If these figures hold, the H-20’s range would be double that of the United States’ upcoming next-generation bomber.
However, speculation about the H-20’s capabilities aside, the pressing question now is what the H-20 would mean for the United States should a war in the Indo-Pacific break out.
Capable—But at a Disadvantage
Speaking to Defense One last year, an intelligence official within the Department of Defense explained that the H-20 may be lacking when compared to the American kit.
“The thing with the H-20 is when you actually look at the system design, it’s probably nowhere near as good as US [low observable] platforms, particularly more advanced ones that we have coming down,” the official said to Defense One.
The article continues, “They’ve run into a lot of engineering design challenges, in terms of how do you actually make that system capability function in a similar way to a B-2 or B-21.”
The official stressed that building a notionally stealthy bomber is only one piece of a much broader puzzle. Though China may officially unveil the H-20 to the broader public in the near future, that “doesn’t necessarily mean it actually delivers them the kind of capability that they would need, or at the quantity that they would need.”
Don’t Discount the Human Factor
American officials have also minimized the risk posed by some of China’s other aircraft, stressing the fact that operational capabilities are distinct from an individual piece of equipment’s potential. The human factor is still relevant despite the proliferation of machine learning, stealthy coatings, and other advanced technologies.
H-20. Image: Chinese Weibo.
“The biggest … challenge for the Chinese side is actually not so much capability of actual systems, it’s more capability of personnel to effectively employ those systems at speed and at scale. We, as a US military, have a lot of experience fighting wars,” an official explained.
The official continued, “And yes, you talk to any operator, and they’ll tell you all the problems we have, but quite frankly, we’re able to figure out how to execute kill chains. The Chinese don’t really have anybody right now at all, in the PLA, who’s actually been in a war.”
Much about the H-20 remains, quite literally, to be seen. However, its usefulness to the PLAAF will ultimately be dictated not just by its specific characteristics like stealth capabilities, range, and specific weapon load out. Part of the equation remains the human factor — the training and experience that pilots, maintainers, logisticians, and other support elements can use to make the H-20 an effective platform. And until that is tested in specific, real-world scenarios, the answer to that question remains nebulous.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
