Key Points and Summary: An uneven peace in Ukraine might seem appealing to stop the fighting, but it could dangerously embolden Vladimir Putin. History shows Putin rebuilds his military strength and attacks again, as seen with Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine itself.
Key Point #1 – Now, Poland and the Baltic states face heightened risks—especially through Belarus, a country effectively controlled by Moscow. Western neglect allowed Belarusian dictator Lukashenko to survive pro-democracy uprisings, making Belarus a launchpad for Russian aggression.
Key Point #2 – NATO must confront its military readiness gaps urgently or risk a devastating surprise attack. Without vigilance and realistic strategy, Europe could again find itself vulnerable to Putin’s ambitions.
A Potential Uneven Peace in Ukraine Makes Putin More Dangerous
When considering what to do about the war in Ukraine, a slogan repeated far too often, without any detailed examination of what comes next: “All wars end in negotiation.”
One of the unending arguments about pushing for a peace settlement for the war in Ukraine without an emphasis on what would be the aftermath is a fool’s errand. “Stopping the killing is not the only issue,” as more than one political analyst has said.
“But the other is what [Russian President] Vladimir Putin will do once the shooting stops,” continues the narrative. “The former KGB Lt. Col. is likely to reconstitute his forces, rebuild an offensive military capacity and then launch another invasion.” This scenario is what more than one Ukrainian military official—from senior officers to volunteers—has said to 19FortyFive. The prospect has them distinctly more worried by the day.
These suspicions are not idle speculation. Going back to December 2021, Putin was demanding no additional NATO eastward expansion—meaning no membership for Ukraine—and no US military bases on the territory of any of the former Soviet Republics—meaning the three Baltic states.
An analysis published in January 2025 reads, “In Putin’s view, the price of peace was a permanent Russian veto on NATO enlargement and the solidification of an uncontested Russian sphere of influence across the post-Soviet space.”
When Putin did not get what he wanted, the leader invaded Ukraine—a pattern of behavior he could easily repeat.
Poland and the Baltics: The Next Places Putin Could Invade
What is likely to happen next, according to an assessment published last year by the German Ministry of Defence (MoD), is an attack by Russia on Poland and the Baltics. The key inflection point for a Russian offensive would be the famous Suwałki Corridor, which the German document calls “Plan Red.”
It is a battle plan to have the Russian Army reach Paldiski, a small community on the Baltic Sea just west of the Estonian capital, Tallinn, within 72 hours. Russia would exploit NATO’s primary weakness, according to the assessment from the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). That weakness is described as the “chasm between the imagined readiness and actual readiness” of the European NATO nations.
One of the little-noticed but critical elements of this likely Russian invasion plan is the former Soviet Republic of Belarus.
A recent essay in the journal Foreign Policy describes Belarus as “the West’s greatest blind spot.” A clear illustration of this point, say Belarusian opposition-in-exile representatives, was the lack of any effort to capitalize on the pro-democracy protests that spontaneously spread across the country in 2020. Protestors called for the removal of the nation’s president-for-life, Aleksandr Lukashenko, and for a time, it appeared they might succeed.
Where Putin Has Launched An Invasion From (And Will Again)
Putin’s survival and his drive to stay in power have had horrendous consequences that haunt the region to this day.
“Lukashenko is clearly an instrument of Russian military and foreign policy and a right-hand asset of Putin. He was also intimately involved in the efforts to pressure and subjugate Ukraine both prior to and during the February 2022 invasion. And yet two years before there was no effort to remove him at a time when he was extremely vulnerable and when a regime in Minsk not beholden to Putin could have prevented this war in Ukraine,” said Vadim Prokopiev, one of the Washington-area leaders of the opposition movement.
MEDITERRANEAN SEA (Feb. 3, 2022) – United States F/A-18 Super Hornets and Greek F-16 Fighting Falcons conduct air-to-air training over the Ionian Sea as a part of Neptune Strike 2022, Feb. 3. Neptune Strike 2022 highlights NATO’s ability to integrate the high-end maritime capabilities of a carrier strike group to ensure high operational readiness across the Alliance and the defence and protection of all Allies. It is the first time since the Cold War that a full US carrier group comes under NATO command.(Photo by French Master Sergeant Malaury Buis)
Speaking from his waterfront office, he described the tragic ends of what he and others call Washington’s foreign policy malpractice. “Leaving Lukashenko in place and pretending like he would never be problem – or like he was not even there to begin with – was like the West leaving a loaded gun on the table and then pasting a shooting target on Ukraine,” he said, lamenting on how the current devastation and loss of life in the war could have been avoided.
The same Foreign Policy essay echoes these sentiments. “In one of the greatest (and most overlooked) foreign-policy failures of US President Donald Trump’s first administration, Washington did little to back the democratic protesters and instead ceded all influence to Moscow,” concludes the author, human rights campaigner Casey Michel.
As a consequence, Lukashenko now not only remains in power, but Belarus continues to be a key staging ground for Russia’s continuing attacks on Ukraine.
The Black Hole
No one seems to have learned from these mistakes, and therefore Belarus “is effectively a ‘black hole’ of policy analysis, even for the new administration in Washington,” Michel continues.
“Reams of paper have been produced on new U.S. strategy regarding Ukraine, Russia, and Europe, but there’s been precisely nothing written on Belarus, which appears to be a complete vacuum of strategic thinking,” Michel says.
“So, when the question is asked ‘could Putin threaten Poland or the Baltics’, how much more obvious could it be. Belarus being almost an appendage of Russia makes putting troops in position for just such an invasion as easy as can be,” said Prokopiev.
T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russia and Belarus will hold their large-scale once-every-four-year Zapad military exercise in September of this year. Will Moscow’s troops move into Belarus for this training event and then return to their bases in Russia once it is over?
Or will they move out with fixed bayonets into the NATO allies of the US that border Lukashenko’s nation? In a few months, we may have the answer.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
