Article Summary and Key Points: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has suffered a humiliating setback against Ukraine despite facing virtually no opposing navy.
-The sinking of the flagship Moskva and subsequent Ukrainian drone and missile attacks forced Russian ships to abandon Sevastopol, relocating due to constant threats from unmanned Ukrainian vessels.
-Ukrainian successes using drones and shore-based missiles have neutralized nearly a third of Russia’s fleet, disrupting Moscow’s ability to interdict grain shipments and significantly weakening its strategic position.
-With innovative naval drone strikes and effective missile attacks, Ukraine achieved a surprising maritime victory, undermining Russian naval dominance and threatening Russia’s grip on occupied Crimea.
How Ukraine Destroyed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Without a Navy
The Russian “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has been a disaster for the Russian military. The loss of nearly half a million troops, thousands of tanks, and hundreds of their best aircraft to a military in Ukraine thought to be inferior has been an eye-opener.
But having their Black Sea Fleet forcibly removed from Crimea has to be terribly galling to the heads of the Navy. This withdrawal is despite being against Ukraine, which has no ships. Inconceivable.
At the onset of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the Ukrainian Navy had one warship, the Hetman Sahaidachny, a Soviet-era frigate, that had to be scuttled in the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv to prevent it from falling into Russian hands.
The Russians were thought at that moment to have complete control of the sea. Those assumptions were wrong.
Ukraine Strikes Back Early
When Russia invaded on Feb. 22, 2022, the Russians had 74 ships in the fleet, most of them in the Russian-occupied Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. But then, in April of that year, the Ukrainians were able to pinpoint the location of the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship, the Moskava.
The Moskava was the recipient of the now-famous reply by the Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island. The Moskva called the island’s garrison over the radio and demanded its surrender, receiving the now-famous reply “Russian warship, go **** yourself” from the Ukrainian defenders.
Once the Ukrainians had located her, they sent a Bayraktar TB-2 UAV, which distracted the Russians. The TB-2 UAV may have confirmed the Moskava’s location. Then, on her port side, she was slammed with two R-360 Neptune anti-ship missiles from Ukrainian shore batteries near Odesa.
Fires raged. The Russian sailors tried to fight the fires, but the ammunition blew up. She rolled over on her side and sank on April 14. The Russians claimed it was a fire onboard that caused the ship to sink. But the embarrassment for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Navy was huge.
Black Sea Fleet “Functionally Inactive”
From March through July 2022, the Ukrainian defense at sea was purely defensive in nature. They took advantage of targets of opportunity and conducted anti-access/area denial operations near the coastline, where they stopped Russian amphibious operations targeting areas west of the Dnipro River. On June 30, the Ukrainians re-took Snake Island. The UN-brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 27, 2022. Beside the Moskava, the Ukrainians sank the Alligator-class tank landing ship Saratov.
A year later, after Russia withdrew from the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative, the Ukrainians began an offensive against Russia’s fleet. This second phase is strictly offensive in nature. The campaign goals were neutralizing Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and isolating the Crimean Peninsula, according to an article by Dan White.
TB2 drone similar to the one fighting in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian drone and missile attacks were growing more and more deadly as they showed the growing sophistication of the home-grown drone capability. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducted operations that disrupted the Russian resupply efforts and troop movements. The Ukrainians recaptured the Boyko Towers oil rigs. One of their strikes took out the Black Sea Fleet’s leadership in Sevastopol.
Since the war began, Ukraine managed to sink or damage around one-third of Russia’s 74 ships of the Black Sea Fleet. Russian attempts to interdict Ukrainian grain shipments on the sea have been largely negated. The Russian Navy is forced to bomb grain stocks directly, a telling sign that things haven’t gone well.
But the biggest indictment of the Russian military power is the fact that they were forced to move their fleet from Crimea to safer harbors in Russia due to Ukrainian drone and missile strikes.
Dmitry Rogozin, a Russian-installed senator for the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia region and former head of Russia’s space agency, confirmed that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had left Sevastopol.
“The Black Sea Fleet is an illustrative example,” Reuters quoted Rogozin as saying. “It was forced to change, basically, its residence due to the fact that our large ships became just big targets for unmanned enemy boats.”
According to the British Ministry of Defense, the Russian Black Sea Fleet had become “functionally inactive ” by March 2024.
Things Are Getting Worse for Russia
The Black Sea is quite important for Russia because it is used for shipping oil and gas to Europe and the Middle East. However, with just a ramshackle Navy, Ukraine has essentially won the Battle of the Black Sea.
On December 31, the Ukrainians conducted a drone strike using the Magura V5 naval drone and missiles and destroyed two Russian Mi-8 helicopters. It was the first time a naval drone had downed a helicopter.
Ukraine’s Strategic Command on December 25 had successfully conducted a missile attack of a command post of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, a regiment of the Black Sea Fleet based in Sevastopol.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on January 2 that in regards to the December 31 attack: “ISW assesses that increased Ukrainian offensive capabilities in the Black Sea will most likely threaten Russian control over occupied Crimea.”
While the war of attrition grinds on, the Ukrainians have a clear-cut victory in the Black Sea, and Russia’s weak attempts to threaten nuclear escalation ring as hollow as the emptiness of its fleet in the Black Sea.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in other military publications.
