The Iran MOP Up Option: Air Force’s Biggest Bombs are Ready to Teach Iran a Lesson: As talks about Iran’s nuclear weapons program move forward, the U.S. military is keeping up the pressure with an array of forces in place under United States Central Command.
“We do not want to see war. This is not a president that campaigned on starting wars. And as he said very clearly, Iran is not going to have a nuclear weapon, and he reserves every right to prevent that from happening,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on April 23.
The MOP Option for Iran
If Iran’s diplomats waver, there is always the MOP option – using the U.S. Air Force’s biggest non-nuclear bombs called Massive Ordnance Penetrators to pierce the defenses at Iran’s underground sites.
Don’t rule out cyber options and commando raids, but over the years, the U.S. has developed specific techniques to take out a big chunk of Iran’s capabilities from the air.
The U.S. Air Force has been at work on the combination of big bombs and programmable fuses for over 20 years, based on lessons learned from the 1991 Gulf War.
It’s not all targeted at Iran; North Korea and China have underground hide sites for missiles, artillery, and command posts.
However, the result is the U.S., if ordered, would have no problem carrying out a precision strike plan specifically designed to destroy Iran’s capabilities.
MOP Explained
The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator combines a 30,000-pound class explosive with a specialized fuse. Consider the progress made with miniaturized munitions like Small Diameter Bomb, enabled by explosive materials that are more powerful.
Scaled up to a larger bomb, the weapons are more than capable of damaging hardened targets. Programmable fuses can also be set to tunnel into the earth and sense the presence of a void – such as an underground weapons site – before detonating. In fact, the Large Penetrator Smart Fuse for the MOP became a quick-reaction program in 2018 and at least one live drop from the B-2 was completed in 2020, with additional sled testing in 2021. Pile multiple MOPs onto the same target and damage will be epic.
All this is why the display of B-2 stealth bombers at Diego Garcia was so significant. An attack to disable a key part of Iran’s nuclear weapons program was once a distant possibility. However, Iran’s two missile and drone attacks on Israel in 2024 changed the calculus, revealing Iran’s tactical weaknesses. Israel’s retaliation on October 26, 2024, hit Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, missile production, and other capabilities. Iran did not strike back.
Aicraft Carriers are Key
The ability to strike at Iran also depends on the two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers, USS Harry S. Truman and USS Carl Vinson.
The two 97,000-ton ships are currently running 24/7 flight operations. Typically, one carrier launches the daytime sorties while the other configures for night operations, readjusting flight deck schedules for night launches with some of the crew sleeping during the day.
Aircraft from the carriers can provide air superiority, maintain an intelligence and surveillance tracking picture, and join in defense against drone attacks, for example.
The carrier strike options are there for extra firepower and emergency contingencies, and no host-nation permission is needed for them to launch operations, an important consideration given the political sensitivities of regional allies.
THAAD and Missile Defense
Another top priority will be defending all U.S. forces across the Central Command region, from Syria to Iraq to the Gulf-region air bases. Systems like THAAD and Patriot are primed to intercept; THAAD had its first operational use in 2022 when the UAE intercepted a Houthi missile headed toward the air base at Al Dhafra, a frequent deployment stop for U.S. Air Force F-22s and F-35s. Expect regional allies to be all in favor of participating in defensive operations.
Any limited strike on Iran would have to be backed up by the full spread of U.S. Navy sea-based missile defense. In April 2024, U.S. Navy destroyers USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) and USS Carney (DDG-64) fired a clutch of SM-3 Standard Missiles for an exo-atmospheric kill of inbound Iranian missiles. The destroyers took their shots nose-on from the Eastern Mediterranean.
Don’t Forget About Space Force
Finally, count on the United States Space Force. Early warning from space foiled Iran’s “Operation Martyr Soleimani” launch of 12 ballistic missiles at U.S. forces at Al-Asad Air Base, Iraq on January 7, 2020.
Guardians stepped up again with missile warning data dispersed during the April 2024 attack from Iran against Israel. By the time of Iran’s second attack on Israel in October, the Guardians had upgraded their software and tactics. “First time, we did well; second time, we did even better,” said one major, the division chief for current operations at Space Delta 5, told Air and Space Forces Magazine. “We had a far better data fidelity rate. We had a lot better warning times,” the major said.
B-2 Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
What Happens Next?
Iran has long refused to live up to its commitments to nuclear material inspection and restraint. As of June 2024, Iran had more than 30 times the limit of stored enriched uranium. Even the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency does not claim to know the location of all of Iran’s centrifuges.
The idea of Iran’s once-vaunted uranium enrichment centrifuge sites filled with gaping holes, visible from satellite imagery, should amply stimulate negotiations.
About the Author: Dr. Rebecca Grant
Dr. Rebecca Grant, Vice President of the Lexington Institute, is a national security analyst based in Washington, DC specializing in defense and aerospace research and national security consulting. She has researched and published hundreds of articles on national security and spoken at numerous forums. In addition, Dr. Grant has often appeared on television as an expert on national security for Fox News, Fox Business, CNN, and MSNBC and as a series regular on The Smithsonian’s Air Warriors. Dr. Grant also writes on China, Russia and other technology and national security topics for Fox News Opinion. Her military books include 75 Great Airmen (with Lt. Gen. Chris Miller), The B-2 Goes to War, and Battle-Tested: Aircraft Carriers in Afghanistan and Iraq. Dr. Grant graduated from Wellesley College and earned a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics, University of London.
