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How Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Today, President Biden convened a meeting of the National Security Council to discuss the latest developments regarding Russia’s military buildup on the borders of Ukraine.

The U.S. and the West have repeatedly stated that Russia intends to invade Ukraine, in what would amount to the biggest war in Europe since the end of World War Two.

But, beyond information on potential false flag operations, they hadn’t explained how that might actually happen. That is until the top U.S. diplomat took to the stage at the United Nations last Friday and informed the world how the U.S. believes a Russian attack would play out.

It’s Already Happening 

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to United Nations Security Council and laid out how the U.S. believes that Moscow will attack Ukraine.

First, Russia will try to fabricate a pretext to attack Ukraine. This would give Moscow a veil of legality—a very thin veil indeed—so it could at least save some face in the international community.

“This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian Government. We don’t know exactly the form it will take. It could be a fabricated so-called ‘terrorist’ bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake—even a real—attack using chemical weapons. Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide, making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber do not take lightly, nor do I do take lightly based on my family history,” the U.S. Secretary of State said.

Second, Russian President Vladimir Putin will call emergency meetings with his highest level diplomatic, political, and military advisers so as to give a sense of reactiveness in what in reality would be a pre-planned course of action. The outcome of those meetings would be a commitment to defense Russian lives inside Ukraine.

“Next, the attack is planned to begin. Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine. Communications will be jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Russia’s capital—Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people. And conventional attacks are not all that Russia plans to inflict upon the people of Ukraine. We have information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians,” Blinken added.

The Intelligence 

What enabled Blinken to go to the United Nations Security Council and layout in such detail the Kremlin’s plans is the unprecedented declassification of intelligence.

“Now, I am mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out. But let me be clear: I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one. The information I’ve presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months. And remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they have been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military assault,” the top U.S. diplomat stated.

1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business InsiderSandboxx, and SOFREP.

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.