A full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces is likely to take place within the next 48 hours, according to U.S. officials.
The U.S. officials told Newsweek that the U.S. has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the high likelihood of a Russian invasion in the next two days. Moreover, they said that Russian aircraft had already violated Ukrainian airspace on Wednesday, in what seems to have been reconnaissance flights in preparation for military action.
Invasion Is Imminent
Since Monday, when Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of two separatist territories in Eastern Ukraine, tensions are sky-high. Russian troops have already moved into the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), which is legally Ukrainian territory.
These new warnings indicate that Russian troops wouldn’t be limited to only reinforcing the breakaway territories but would move forcibly against the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
On Wednesday, the Pentagon provided its own warning of an imminent attack, stating that 80 percent of Russian troops around Ukraine’s borders are ready to attack if given the order by Putin.
The Ukrainian government has declared a 30-day state of emergency and is calling up the reserves.
This is not the first time the U.S. has shared intelligence with Ukraine about an imminent Russian attack. U.S. officials have given their Ukrainian counterparts timelines for a possible Russian invasion in the past. Although those attacks didn’t materialize, the fact that the U.S. shared the intelligence with Ukraine and the world might have been one of the reasons for Moscow’s reluctance to go through with plans. In other words, the very publication of the Russian plans might have been enough to cancel or at least frustrate them.
It’s Raining Sanctions
The initially stiffed reaction of the West against Russia’s actions in Eastern Ukraine has been followed by a wave of sanctions. Besides the U.S., the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and Australia have all imposed sanctions on Russian banks and officials.
Probably the most severe sanctions since the Russian actions were imposed on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Germany, where the natural gas pipeline would end, has halted the certification of Nord Stream 2, while the U.S. imposed sanctions on its corporate officers.
“After consultations overnight with Germany, Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline will not become operational. That’s an $11 billion investment and a prized gas pipeline controlled by Russia that will now go to waste, and it sacrifices what would have been a cash cow for Russia’s financial coffers. But it’s not just about the money. This decision will relieve Russia’s geostrategic chokehold over Europe through its supply of natural gas, and it’s a major turning point in the world’s energy independence from Russia,” a senior U.S. administration official said.
U.S., E.U., and NATO officials have stated that a full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops would trigger even bigger sanctions. Meanwhile, Russian diplomats have brushed off the threat and questioned the effectiveness of the sanctions.
1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
