On day 31 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military began its counterattack across several fronts and is reclaiming lost territory. The Russian forces continue to struggle, and their losses keep mounting.
Meanwhile, in a humiliating reverse, the Russian strategy has shifted from capturing Kyiv to making gains in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine Counterattacks, Russia Shifts the Tune
According to the Pentagon, Kherson, a port city in southern Ukraine, is no longer under full Russian control after a fierce Ukrainian counterattack from multiple fronts. The same is happening in Irpin, a suburb of Kyiv, where Ukrainian forces have been counterattacking and reclaiming territory from the Russians.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Saturday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 16,400 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 117 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 127 helicopters, 575 tanks, 293 artillery pieces, 1,640 armored personnel carriers, 91 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), seven boats, 1,131 vehicles, 73 fuel tanks, 51 anti-aircraft batteries, 56 unmanned aerial systems, two (downgraded from 15) special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and two mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems.
The Pentagon has tracked more than 1,250 ballistic and cruise missile launches from the Russian military. But despite their technological superiority, the Russian forces have failed to meet their primary objectives, namely capturing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odesa, and topping the Ukrainian government.
A Shift in Strategy
In its daily estimate of the war, the British Ministry of Defense assessed that the Russian military is changing its approach, increasingly targeting cities with long-range fires and avoiding committing infantry and tanks in urban warfare to minimize casualties.
“Russia continues to besiege a number of major Ukrainian cities including Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. Russian forces are proving reluctant to engage in large scale urban infantry operations, rather preferring to rely on the indiscriminate use of air and artillery bombardments in an attempt to demoralise defending forces. It is likely Russia will continue to use its heavy firepower on urban areas as it looks to limit its own already considerable losses, at the cost of further civilian casualties,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.
In a public assessment of the war, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that it is going according to plan and that it has entered the second phase, which will focus on the eastern part of Ukraine. Russian forces will try to make gains in the Donbas in an attempt to save something for the unfolding debacle.
“They [the Russians] are prioritizing the Donbas. . . They’ve publicly now acknowledged what we talked about the other day, that they are putting their priorities and their effort in the east of Ukraine. And that’s where still, there remains a lot of heavy fighting, and we think they are trying to not only secure some sort of more substantial gains there as a potential negotiating tactic at the table, but also to cut off Ukrainian forces in the eastern part of the country,” a senior U.S. defense official said in a press briefing.
1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Alex
March 26, 2022 at 2:09 pm
How many Russians have already died in Ukraine? 50,000 soldiers? Or already 100,000 soldiers? They are probably immortal, since they capture cities and only move forward 🙂
Duke
March 27, 2022 at 9:58 am
It’s a slow grind of Russian forces that do not retreat fast enough. The Russians do not have enough people to occupy Ukraine, certainly not for the long term and not when the its western part is supported with weapons and money by NATO.
The Russians were hoping for a quick dash to Kiev and either
toppling the Zelenskyy gouvernment or or forcing him at gunpoint to sign over the Donbass and Crimea. Well, neither of these has happened yet.
Let us be clear, Russia’s military might could well turn the tide of war, but that would require more force, more equipment and supplies and better motivated troops. Heck, they could nuke all Ukrainian cities if they wanted to. However this may finally bring NATO to intervene and let us be serious here: Russia could not bring to heel a much smaller adversary with an inferior air force, navy and armor; NATO would absolutely wipe the floor with Russia and then break them apart like Yougoslavia. Short of nuclear war Russia does not have a prayer against NATO, and after a nuclear war there would not be a Russia anymore.
Duke
March 27, 2022 at 10:09 am
So, since Russia failed its objectives they are now looking for an off-ramp that allows Vlad the Mad to stay in power. So they need some kind of achievement that they can present as victory to its brainwashed and uninformed masses (kinda like our rednecks). Let’s not forget that they cut off FB and IG for a reason, and that is so they can control the narrative.
Dead Russian soldiers with their eyes pecked off by birds, crumpled Russian tanks and burned out trucks might stir the apathetic Russian populace into action, and they can’t have that. This would remove Putin’s last shred of legitimacy: the life standard is collapsing, store shelves are emptying, Russia was reduced to stealing Airbus and Boeing airplanes so they can keep flying and there’s nowhere to fly anymore except China, Iran and North Korea; if Mad Vlad cannot even claim to restore Russian greatness (whatever that is) then why is he in power in the first place? Joe Biden was right (and he was spot-on since the beginning of the war): Putin must not be allowed to remain in power. This is what everybody of sane mind thinks (well, maybe except for his friend, Mr. Trunp)
David Burgess
March 27, 2022 at 10:22 am
“…and after a nuclear war there would not be a Russia anymore.”
After a nuclear war, there would no longer be a lot of places. So, it starts out with Russia using small tactical nukes against Ukraine. Then NATO will get involved and them and Russia will exchange a few. China seeing it’s opportunity will launch against Taiwan, because who is going to stop them? Then India says let’s settle this crap with Pakistan and they nuke each other and maybe throw a few at China also. Iran finally gets its nuke and goes after Israel who uses its nuke against Iran. Meanwhile back here in the US, Biden poops his pants(again) and goes out for pizza and ice cream.
Alex
March 27, 2022 at 11:29 am
I do not know a single weapon in the world that can selectively destroy Nazis and terrorists who are hiding behind civilians, like a human shield. Of course, the United States is angry that Russia is acting carefully, and not covering Ukrainian cities with napalm and uranium shells, as the United States is used to doing. Strength is in mercy, which Russia shows and why the United States is angry. But if you really want to, then the United States can try to bring its soldiers into Ukraine. Oh yes, no one will feel sorry for them, and after their destruction, the US rating will drop to zero. The advance of Russian troops shows that it is possible to liberate cities without resorting to their complete destruction. This shows a very high level of training of the Russian army.
TrustbutVerify
March 27, 2022 at 5:56 pm
I am sure the Ukrainians are saying “spare us your mercy” at this point, you Russian troll. “Liberating” cities is not “reducing them to rubble with artillery because the people living there don’t want you and won’t surrender”.
Spin as you might, when the dead are realized back home Putin is going to have to answer some questions. He has all his chips in the pot now and if he loses, if the Ukrainians overwhelm ONE of his four depleted spearheads, he will be deposed.
Vlad the Mad
March 27, 2022 at 8:28 pm
“Liberating” cities sure is different, you US troll. It’s bombing them to the stone age as US did in Yugoslavia just because you wanted to do so.
Duke, it might come as a surprise for you but they both are Vlads. Which one did you mention? Vlad the Mad junkie aka Zelensky? He sure will do anything to stay in power.
Joe P
March 27, 2022 at 10:09 pm
What pile of BS. The Ukrainians are lying. The amount of western and Ukrainian propaganda being put out is astounding, and fools like you eat it up.
Deimos
March 28, 2022 at 8:33 am
Is there anyway both sides could lose? I feel bad for the Ukrainian people but they have the most corrupt country in Europe and it is nothing more than a money laundering operation for western elites. If it is true that Russia is losing lots of men and equipment then they are in serious trouble. China used to own Siberia and they want it back. They will just move in and there will be nothing Russia can do. Their population peaked at 148 million and now they are at 144 million. With a birth rate of 9.8 per thousand and a death rate of 16.7 per thousand they will cease to exist in a few decades. They are losing a person every 30 seconds.
Alex
March 29, 2022 at 12:04 pm
If Siberia “belonged” to China, then your brains definitely belong to Bandera’s Nazi. Only they have “their” history all over the world.
Eric
March 29, 2022 at 4:39 pm
16,400 Russian forces killed + (According to Ukrainian Ministry of Defense source)
49,200 Russian forces wounded (According to Ukrainian Ministry of Defense source)
______________________
If true, that’s roughly 65,600 total Russian casualties
So out of an estimated 200,000 Russian troops sent to Ukraine, 32.8% are casualties. Typically, 10-15% losses make a unit combat ineffective. 32% losses is devastating.
Alex
March 30, 2022 at 5:49 pm
Eric, I will give you an important advice in your life: in order not to look like a clown, do not write Ukrainian propaganda here. She is not just not professional, he is frankly stupid and designed for complete idiots. Try looking at the combat map. If you are human. If you are a Bandera Nazi – do not try, it will not help 🙂
DavidC
April 1, 2022 at 4:49 pm
You guys listening to pentagon and Ukrainian propaganda really don’t know what is happening in Ukraine. Listen to The Duran on Rumble. Russia has won the war in Ukraine. The bulk of the Ukrainian army is surrounded in Donbas cut off from supplies. In 6 months time the rouble will be hard currency. The world can buy Russian commodities in roubles or gold take yr pick. Russia is ascending, America and the west are in decline. Russia is now the first post globalist civilization state. Which side of the new world order do u want to be on, take you pick.