The UK’s head of intelligence said that the expulsion of 400 Russian intelligence agents operating out of diplomatic cover in much of Western Europe has cut its intelligence gathering by half. He also added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was “about to run out of steam” which would allow Ukraine the chance to strike back.
Richard Moore, the chief of the UK’s MI6, spoke at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado and assessed the repercussions Russia has suffered across Europe due to its invasion of Ukraine.
He began his comments with the expulsion of “north of 400 Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover” across the countries of Western Europe.
“And we reckon, in the UK, that has probably reduced their ability to do their business to spy for Russia in Europe by half,” Moore said. He added that many “illegals,” or Russian intelligence officers operating under deep cover, posing as ordinary civilians, have also been exposed and arrested in the time frame since the invasion.
Turning to the invasion, Moore stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” thus far has been a strategic failure, with Moscow’s inability to achieve its three main objectives— removing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his government from power, taking Ukraine’s capital Kyiv in the early days of the war, and banking on the collapse of NATO’s resolve to stand up to Moscow.
“On all of those, I think they count as epic fails,” Moore said.
Ukraine Will Have the Opportunity to Strike Back:
Calling Russia’s invasion “the most egregious naked act of aggression… in Europe since the Second World War,” Moore told the audience in Aspen that Russia’s recent gains were “tiny” and that they would soon have to call a pause in their offensive.
“Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to find manpower and materiel over the next few weeks,” Moore said. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians the opportunity to strike back.”
He said Zelensky and the Ukrainian government have to show the people that the war is winnable to preserve the citizens’ morale to continue resisting Russia and keep Western resolve in place to continue giving aid.
“It’s important, I think, to the Ukrainians themselves that they demonstrate their ability to strike back. And I think that will be very important for their continuing high morale,” Moore said.
“I also think, to be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign by the Ukrainians. … I don’t want it to sound like a character from ‘Game of Thrones.’ But winter is coming,” he added.
“And clearly, in that atmosphere with the sort of pressure on gas supplies and all the rest, we’re in for a tough time,” Moore said.
Unlike “M” in the James Bond film franchise, Moore showed some self-deprecating humor. Asked about the time he spent in the US going to school, when a question about him being a lifeguard was posed to him, he responded that he was a beach attendant and that he “didn’t have the body for that,” which drew laughter from the audience.
Russia Running Out of Precision Weapon Ammunition:
The Ukrainian military on Thursday said that Russia has probably used 55 – 60 percent of its existing stocks of high-precision weapons, and due to Western sanctions, they will find it difficult to replenish their stocks.
Vadym Skibytsky, a spokesman for the Defense Intelligence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, addressed the media at a press conference and said, “Many components were manufactured abroad. But the restrictions introduced due to international sanctions do not enable [Russia] to openly get the components.”
Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Launched in the South:
Against the backdrop of Moore’s comments about Ukraine striking back, the Ukrainian military has begun a counter-offensive in the southern region of the country.
On Thursday, the military said that using long-range rockets and artillery, they attacked more than 200 different Russian targets, destroying six ammunition depots in the strikes.
The strikes were aided by more advanced Western weapons, including the US-made M777 155mm howitzers and the HIMARS missile systems at striking Russian targets in the Kherson region, which Russia was able to take in the early days of the invasion.
Steve Balestrieri is a 1945 National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer before injuries forced his early separation. In addition to writing for 19fortyfive.com and other military news organizations, he has covered the NFL for PatsFans.com for over 11 years. His work was regularly featured in the Millbury-Sutton Chronicle and Grafton News newspapers in Massachusetts.
