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Russia Is ‘Suffering Devastating Losses’ in Ukraine Trying to Hold Kherson

HIMARS
HIMARS. Image Credit: U.S. Military.

Russia has more challenges to overcome in Ukraine: The Russian military is putting up a stiff resistance to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. On day 195 of the invasion, the Ukrainians are continuing with the attempt to recapture Kherson while the Russian military is suffering devastating losses.

One main element of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the advance on a broad front toward the Dnipro River, while long-range strikes are taking out Russian logistical functions on the rear, making the Russian military’s defense that much harder.

The Russian Casualties

The Russian military continues to take hefty casualties in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is taking a particularly heavy toll on the Russian troops.

As an example, in the last four days, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has claimed to have killed 1,450 Russian troops and destroyed 68 tanks, 118 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 7 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 23 unmanned aerial systems, 53 artillery pieces, and 58 vehicles and fuel tanks. Even a fresh military would consider those numbers heavy losses, but for a battered force like the Russian military right now, the casualties are unsustainable. And the problem for Moscow only worsens as every modern weapon system it losses in Ukraine is a weapon system that it has to struggle to replace or can’t all together.

Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Tuesday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 50,150 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 236 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 207 attack and transport helicopters, 2,077 tanks, 1,179 artillery pieces, 4,484 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 296 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 15 boats and cutters, 3,305 vehicles and fuel tanks, 156 anti-aircraft batteries, 876 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 109 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 209 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.

Russian Strategic Decisions 

The Ukrainian military intelligence has stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin advisers have decided to extend the deadline for the capture of the Donbas. Previously, the Russian military had been ordered to capture Donbas, which is comprised of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (the latter is already under full Russian control), by August 31. Now that deadline has been extended to September 15. But with the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south that continues to draw Russian forces from elsewhere in Ukraine, the ability of the Russian military to take Donbas anytime soon is extremely unlikely.

Ukraine Russia T-62

T-62 Tank in Russian military exercise.

Russian commanders in Moscow and on the ground will have to balance the Kremlin’s objectives with the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south and the renewed fighting around Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine, in the east. Operational reserves that can make a difference in one front could very well be redirected to another based on political and not military considerations.

Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business InsiderSandboxx, and SOFREP.

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Gary Jacobs

    September 6, 2022 at 9:39 am

    It’s actually even worse than this for Russia. Ukraine is constantly asking other countries for weapons. However, most of its troops were trained on Russian/Soviet equipment. So when Russians flee their positions, as so many geolocated photos and videos show… the Ukrainians refurbish and repurpose those vehicles for themselves right after they paint over the stupid Z that the Russians put on there vehicles. So not only are the Russians losing in Kherson, the Ukrainians are gaining vehicles and ammo for themselves in the process.

    There are a number of reputable sources reporting on this not going well at all for Russia. Much of that analysis comes from not only geolocated footage from troops on both sides but following the Russian Milblogger Telegram channels. Many of them have either somewhat or completely stopped towing the Kremlin’s fantasies… and these are fanatical Russian nationalists.

    Things could still turn for Russia, especially if they learn how to use Iranian drones effectively and in large numbers. And/Or if Ukraine makes a number of mistakes in the next few weeks. That said, it is looking like a MASSIVE Russian defeat brewing East of the Dnipro, and I am stocking up on popcorn to watch the trolls try and spin it.

  2. Scooter Van Neuter

    September 6, 2022 at 11:46 am

    One has but to watch the YT videos of intercepted Russian phone calls of their soldiers to understand what a clusterf*ck their military is. Low morale, not getting paid, inept and often drunken commanders, little training, dwindling heavy arms, and high casualties are gutting their forces as well as their troops’ will to fight.

  3. Average Voter

    September 6, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    Putin is sacrificing everything he is capable of sacrificing (humans, economy, relations with neighbors, the future of Russia) just to stay in power a little longer.

    The source of the problem is the dictatorial, anti-democratic nature of the regime in Russia.
    The only lasting solution is the overthrow of the regime and its replacement by a democratic regime, which would be good for everyone, first of all for the Russians, except for a few dictators who need Putin’s protection against their own population (Lukashenko, Asad).

  4. aldol11

    September 6, 2022 at 1:23 pm

    Russia will end up like Yugoslavia
    and Putin like Gaddafi

  5. MortenHJ

    September 7, 2022 at 4:49 am

    The Ukraine war started in Ukraine and will end in Moscow

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