Is America Mindlessly Drifting to War with Russia?: Let’s start with this black-and-white fundamental truth right up front: America’s national security is not threatened, in any way, by the conflict raging between Ukraine and Russia. This statement is simultaneously true: we will stay safe unless we foolishly, recklessly stumble into a direct confrontation with Russia by joining the war on Ukraine’s side.
Given the Administration’s frequent claims that the president has no intention of engaging in a war with Russia, one could be forgiven not knowing there was any chance of the U.S. getting sucked into the war with Russia. Biden reiterated in April that the United States would not “not send U.S. troops to fight Russian troops in Ukraine.” He has not publicly changed from that stance since. Yet the deployments and dispositions of U.S. military in the past week casts doubt on the president’s assurances.
In just the past few days, the United States Army deployed a brigade of the famed 101st Airborne Division to Romania – the first time the division has been in Europe in almost 80 years. The U.S.-led NATO alliance just held a major nuclear weapons exercise, and in the Adriatic Sea near Ukraine, the aircraft carrier U.S.S. George H.W. Bush is conducting exercises with NATO allies. While exercises are a normal and routine part of America’s national defense, these included ominous offensive allusions.
Brig. Gen. John Lubas, deputy commander of the 101st Airborne Division in Romania, said the unit was not there for a training event, but a “combat deployment,” adding that his troops “need to be ready to fight tonight, depending on how the situation escalates across the border” in Ukraine.
In a Newsweek article this week titled, American Troops Prepared to Engage in War with Russia, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who was aboard the aircraft carrier, said the operation in the Adriatic “demonstrates our ability to rapidly reinforce our allies and project power across the alliance.” Since last February, the United States deployed thousands of troops to Europe, bringing the total number to 100,000, many of which have been forward deployed to Eastern European NATO states.
What no one in Washington or Brussels has bothered to explain to the American people, however, is: why?
What is the threat to American national security that would necessitate the deployment of 100,000 U.S. troops, forward-deploy a combat division that hasn’t been in Europe since World War II, and send aircraft carrier battle groups up to the Ukraine border, all of which are expressly and publicly intended to prepare for war with Russia?
Thus far, the non-thinking answer has been to constantly repeat that Russia launched “an unprovoked” war against Ukraine, with the implication being, that if not checked now, Putin may soon launch further attacks into eastern Europe and conquer more territory. So many of America’s current leaders were raised in the heart of the Cold War and learned from their youth to fear and even hate the Russian-dominated USSR. But Putin’s Russia of today is not a fraction of the genuine combat power once wielded by the Kremlin.
It is ironic that many experts claim Russia is a serious threat to attack NATO territory, while others claim the Russian military will not be able to defeat even Ukraine. It can’t simultaneously be that Russia is a regional menace that is a threat to roll through NATO countries, yet also so weak that Ukraine is going to defeat them. The reality is evident for anyone willing to see it: the Russian military did not have the capacity to successfully capture even neighboring NATO states (prior to this war, it was widely assumed NATO would be powerless to prevent a Russian victory over the Baltics) and owing to the tremendous equipment losses over the past eight months, it would take decades of time to rebuild even to their pre-war level.
Yet as I have frequently argued, if Russia mobilizes a large portion of its armed force and its defense industrial capacity, in time it will likely overcome the Ukrainian defenses – though even that minor objective is by no means a guarantee. The idea, however, that Russia has the slightest conventional capacity to invade any other country is laughable. They don’t. Period. Full stop. There is nowhere near the necessary military means to invade even one bordering state, much less take on the 30-member military alliance of NATO.
Yet that has not stopped many in the United States from fanning the flames of fear on the idea that Russia is a danger to the U.S. and must be militarily confronted. Former general and CIA Director David Petraeus has suggested the U.S. troops do more than simply exercise near the Ukrainian border. In a recent interview with the French weekly L’Express, Petraeus suggested the United States might intervene in Ukraine with a multi-national ‘coalition of the willing’ type arrangement and potentially fight the Russians there.
Earlier this month, in response to a hypothetical Russian use of a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil, Petraeus argued the United States should “take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine… and every ship in the Black Sea.” The former general seems oblivious to the reality that if the U.S. directly attacked Russian military forces, they would respond in kind immediately, potentially targeting American troops in Europe or Syria – sending the risk of a full-on war between the world’s two largest nuclear superpowers through the roof.
It should be an article of faith that the United States Government and our Armed Forces have the primary obligation to defend our country, meet our treaty obligations, and preserve the ability of our citizens to prosper. Yet in today’s world, there is a ghastly lack of awareness of the consequences to a nuclear exchange with Russia, and a frighteningly cavalier willingness to risk such a war with Moscow over issues not even related to our national security.
A Paladin M109 Alpha-6 Howitzer, fires an illumination round during a night fire exercise in support of Eager Lion 2016, May 23, 2016 at Al Zarqa, Jordan. Eager Lion 16 is a bi-lateral exercise in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan between the Jordanian Armed Forces and the U.S. Military designed to strengthen relationships and interoperability beween partner nations while conducting contingency operations. (U.S Army photo by Spc. Kevin Kim/ Released)
As I stated at the opening, let me reiterate once more: there is nothing at stake in the war between the bordering states of Russia and Ukraine that threatens our national security (or that of our NATO alliance). Russia has exposed a near total incapacity to conventionally threaten any NATO member, so America’s primary objective should be to contain the spread of the war to its current boundaries, promote a diplomatic end to the fighting on the best terms for Ukraine possible, and maintain our strong conventional and nuclear deterrent to guarantee our own security and continued prosperity.
What we should never do, however, is foolishly court actions that would expand the war, draw us into an unnecessary fight, and put at risk our very existence as a nation. It’s shocking such obvious truths need to be written, yet that is the reality of this situation. Too many of our leaders and so-called experts are aggressively pushing us closer and closer to war with Russia – that could all too easily go nuclear – and doing virtually nothing to end the fighting.
Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis
Goran
October 28, 2022 at 11:26 am
Russian ambassador insists Kremlin has “no such plans” for invading Ukraine despite troop build-up (February 20th)
We are obviously dealing with a regime that cannot be trusted. Just assuming that they will not attack a NATO member is not enough, a deterrent has to be put in place and this deployment is part of that. Besides, Davis is the one who’s building his entire case on portraying Putin as someone who might make irrational moves, now he is trying to say Putin knows better than to do something stupid?!
Davis, can you please pick a line of reasoning and stick with it? Should Ukraine surrender because Russia is too strong or because Putin might be weak and use nukes? Should the NATO ignore Putin’s media increasing anti-NATO hysteria because Putin might escalate even more or because he is someone who knows better than to do something stupid?
Brian
October 28, 2022 at 3:43 pm
Agreed. Couldn’t state my thoughts any more clearly.
Michael Droy
October 28, 2022 at 5:32 pm
Oh dear – someone fooled us – he is clearly the villain because we are not simpletons. Is that right?
Seriously are we actually saying Putin is morally wrong because he fooled us? Or because we refuse to admit that the distraction around Kiev was a superb military stroke rather than some kind of great Ukrainian victory?
Pete G.
October 29, 2022 at 3:25 am
Well said!!
Roger J. Buffington
October 29, 2022 at 6:42 pm
I agree with Goran. How can the author of this article claim that US national security is not at risk? Keeping Europe free from totalitarian domination has been a fixed US foreign policy objective since before WW1, i.e. for over a century. Granted that we were only partly successful after WW2, but that was still the objective. (Roosevelt and Churchill agonized over Russia’s domination of the Iron Curtain countries.) Russia under Putin is plainly a reckless and warlike power and our choice is to stop them in Ukraine, or wait for Putin to become emboldened and attack NATO, e.g. Poland, Rumania, or the Baltics. Appeasement has been tried; it worked out poorly. Much better to stop Russia in Ukraine now.
davidgmillsatty
October 30, 2022 at 5:56 pm
Does anyone here have a clue what a nuclear winter would be and what the planet would be like beforehand?
Sometimes there are two bad choices. In this case the choice is between Russia possibly threatening a few countries in Europe in attempting (worst case because it may stop with Ukraine) to retake land that was part of Russia for centuries. The other choice is a nuclear winter precipitated by most of the world’s forests burning for months, huge planetary ejecta in the atmosphere to add to the smoke and of course radiation all over the planet.
Apparently people here think that the first choice is preferable to the second.
I live in Iowa. If I somehow managed to survive the toxic atmosphere before the nuclear winter happens, the nuclear winter models say that it will be below freezing in the summer here and about -50F in the winter for a couple of years. And maybe over 10 years it will almost return to normal.
Two bad choices. Which do you prefer?
Joseph
November 2, 2022 at 9:35 pm
If the 2nd choice means to stop the mad dog Putin ? Putin in Ukraine, then I will prefer the 2nd choice regardless of the consequences.
Victor
October 28, 2022 at 11:32 am
Great analysis!
koko
October 28, 2022 at 11:58 am
Once again Daniel Davis shows his true colors in this farcically flawed analysis. Yes, American national security is threatened when an aggressive expansionist power attacks Europe. Europe represents our most important alliances and trading partners. The most sophisticated chip technology maker in the world is a Dutch company. A substantial percentage of our commercial airline fleet is built by Airbus, a European multinational conglomerate. We sell casts amounts of computer equipment, cars, natural gas, luxury goods there. It is idiotic to say that the risk to European security is not a vital American interest. Daniel Davis really needs to have his head examined. He has Putin derangement syndrome.
TheDon
October 28, 2022 at 10:02 pm
Because if needed, the us could decimate 300000 untrained remaining thugs thereby destroying any fighting ability on ground and any ability to slow air superiority over russia.
But
Putin has put Russia in a bad strategic position with no carriers , poor communications, and untested equipment.
My bet, Russian generals will get weary of Putins goals soon and remove Putin for peace.
The Russians should be proud of the Ukrainians and begin rejoining the Europeans, supplying gas, oil, and goods.
Looks like it would be an asset to still have Ukrainians as an allie.
Andrew P
October 29, 2022 at 11:34 am
The notion that Putin will be removed by generals is wishful thinking, and wished events rarely happen in reality. The Russian Army is bad, but Russia is bigger than Ukraine and borders it. Russia should win this war, even if it takes a very long time. But that is the historical pattern with Russia. They win wars of attrition by outlasting smaller enemies.
James
October 28, 2022 at 12:04 pm
Those that can see and understand know that this is an absolute and ultimately direct threat to our security the security of all representative governments. Putin has even said so himself. He is changing the world order from representative governments to a dictatorial philosophy.
The author needs a historic perspective on bulling tyrants and their dictatorial associates. Their goal is not piece and security for their citizens but POWER without representation.
WillLongfield
October 29, 2022 at 6:02 am
The comments on this board are ridiculous. The commentators clearly know nothing about Russia, Eastern Europe or the Ukraine, other that what hysterical Western news sources broadcast.
Russia is not looking to conquer Europe. They sought to keep Ukraine neutral and prevent the persecution of ethnic Russians in the Eastern and Southern part of the country. That is clearly impossible now, and so annexation is the only option. They have no interest in annexing Western Ukraine, although they will actively seek to prevent it joining NATO. The US would do the same thing were Mexico to suddenly announce it is militarily allied with Communist China.
Further, despite the breathless Instagram-ready posts of victory after victory, Ukraine is resource-poor and running out of manpower. Russia, contrary to ill-informed Western right-think, has used only a fraction of her strength, and possesses immense resources and stamina. The glib Western encouragement of this war is leading to terrible suffering in the Ukraine, and there is no end in sight.
It is true that Russia DOES seek to end the global dominance of the US as a longer-term goal. Despite what Americans believe, much of the world resents US hegemony and abject hypocrisy – the last major illegal invasion of another country was the US invasion of Iraq, in the course of which the US pounded Iraq from the air for 17 days before annihilating its army mercilessly. America would do well to be a little more humble and a little less strategically obtuse in its dealings with the world outside of Western Europe. Russia’s actions against the Western-dominated order of the world are popular. Outside of NATO, much of the world is ambivalent or quietly supportive of Russia.
None of this is good news for America or for the people of Ukraine. If America does not possess the skill and drive to maintain her position as the global hegemon, then she will not last.
John Raymond Shanahan
October 30, 2022 at 10:18 pm
I respectfully disagree. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 was built on faulty intelligence and unjustified. That in no way justifies Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
I have spent my life believing in the U.S. as a force for good. I served in our army because of that belief. Yes, there has been and still is naked self interest and hypocrisy in U.S. foreign policy. This war not one of those times. Support for Ukraine against Russian agression is aligned with our values. It is also living up to our treaty obligations under the 1994 Budapest Agreement. Ukraine agreed, under pressure from the U.S. to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from both Russia and the U.S. Supporting Ukraine may not be necessary to defend our shores, but here our support is both keeping our word and living up to our ideals.
drewskiiiiiii
October 30, 2022 at 10:55 pm
America does not possess the tact to maintain her position as global hegemon.
Bullying Saudi Arabia into considering joining BRICS(BRICSS?BRICSSSR?where will the madness end?!!) over gay and women’s right recently was a mega misstep.
Finland flagrantly deciding to host SRBM’s “to own Putler” is also a poorly thought out decision diplomatically, despite the immediate military advantages.
Not to mention the anger the diplomatic core managed to stir up in South Africa, over it being neutral on the topic of Russia, and continuing to buy products and cheap energy from them.
Dr. Scooter Van Neuter
October 28, 2022 at 12:12 pm
The Biden administration needs this war to take America’s eyes off of the incredible destruction their inept actions are causing to this once-great country.
Michael Nunez
October 28, 2022 at 2:51 pm
Agree , it’s very true . Everything Biden has done is costing us Now and Our Future . It’s clear Biden wants America to be destroyed.. !
CRS, DrPH
October 28, 2022 at 1:06 pm
“Let’s start with this black-and-white fundamental truth right up front: America’s national security is not threatened, in any way, by the conflict raging between Ukraine and Russia.”
Absolute BS. The ongoing war in Ukraine could easily spill over into NATO territory, and Putin is crazy enough to do something like that. I’m glad Pres. Biden is adhering to NATO and strengthening our ties, unlike the “other guy.”
WillLongfield
October 30, 2022 at 11:48 am
You said “Absolute BS. The ongoing war in Ukraine could easily spill over into NATO territory, and Putin is crazy enough to do something like that”
Neither Russia or NATO have any desire or interest to extend the conflict over NATO territory and both are actively trying to avoid that. Even the unreliable news sources that you are so obviously addicted to report that.
Your childish “Putin’s crazy” comment shows you understand nothing about Russia’s motives for this war.
Wade
October 28, 2022 at 1:17 pm
So Chamberlain was right? Just let them have Ukrainian? They pose no threat to us?
Jim
October 28, 2022 at 1:29 pm
The force of logic, reasoning, and evidentiary presentation is excellent.
The best article Daniel Davis has put forth to date.
Can’t wait for the neoconservative tripe put forth by the usual suspects.
Regime Change
Is maximalist.
Is neoconservative.
Is John Bolton (poster child).
The elite always want to put their thumb on the scale.
David Petraeus is the mouthpiece for this neoconservative tripe… harbored by the elite U. S. foreign policy blob.
Frankly, I think David Petraeus is a disgrace to his former uniform.
Petraeus was always a political general and an out-n-out weasel.
And we know what happened to him, getting forced out of heading the CIA after giving away classified information to his extra-marital affair biographer and being convicted for that crime.
If that is your mouth piece… you’re in a world of hurt.
Petraeus can’t help himself… that’s the kind of political weasel he is.
He’s always trying to suck up to the powers that be.
Gary Jacobs
October 29, 2022 at 9:51 am
Jim,
By your “logic”, It’s actually Putin who is the “neocon”, because it has been his stated policy objective to enact regime change in Ukraine. Therefore if you are so against the policies and methods of neocons regarding regime change, then you would actually be for Ukraine and against Russia.
In fact the neoliberal dream of globalization and inclusion by trade relations has been completely destroyed by Putin’s Imperialist fantasies in Ukraine [as well as China aggressive policies under Xi]. As well, there is Zero neocon level policy being implemented for invasion or occupation of either Russia or Ukraine. Less than $20 Billion from the US for Ukraine to defeat the Russian army is the best bargain the US defense budget has ever had. And that’s also with Zero US troops on the ground.
There are a wide range of people in the US, from progressive to conservative who support that approach. Just because there are a couple of people in there that may actually qualify as neocon themselves does not mean the actual policy reflects any sort of neocon methodology. You continuing to beat that drum is like a broken clock that is right twice a day.
In Russia, I’m sure most objective people that hope for a better future for the Russian people, and the rest of humanity, think it would be great for them to have a new government. Is anyone in the west acting on that hope with neocon level invasion plans [or any other neocon type plans]? No. Should we be engaging in cold war level information operations to tell the Russian people what is really going on? Yes. It doesnt take a neocon or neoliberal to do any of that.
Bottom line: I continue to laugh at how often you incorrectly use the word ‘neocon’, especially in reference to regime change. The irony is you make your opponents point, likely without realizing it.
Have a liberating day.
Graeme Waymark
October 28, 2022 at 1:59 pm
Two questions for you Daniel Davis:
1. Would you be able to clarify what you believe from your research, what would be the worst case scenario if the West (USA) did nothing from the start of the conflict and would you then compare that to the worst case scenario as a result of the West continuing to respond in the manner that has you concerned?
2. In any community, our neighbourhood or the planet, what is the moral responsibility of any citizen who has the ability to intervene in an act of bullying? Does this morality apply to your reasoning?
Leidsegracht
October 28, 2022 at 4:15 pm
Let’s be more realistic in our scenario development and ask Mr. Davis not what he thinks the worst case outcome if the West (USA) did nothing but instead ask him what he believes is *the most likely* outcome if the US and West had done nothing to support Ukraine?
And please Mr. Davis, step outside of your military background and consider the broader context as a friend once stated “War is a mere continuation of politics by other means.” so explain to us in Clausewitzian terms how the invasion of a top 5 global producer of food stuffs by a top 5 producer food stuffs who is also a top 2 exporter of energy *doesn’t* represent a threat to US national security interests.
Duke
October 28, 2022 at 2:00 pm
The Biden administration correctly evaluates that Russia is a clear and present threat to the security of the US and its NATO allies. Waiting until that threat manifests itself in the form of attacks on NATO countries or sabotage of their
infrastructure is a reactive position in which no intelligent leader wants to be pushed into.
We should note that Russia has already initiated unwarranted wars of aggression against its neighbors, so clearly, that moral and political taboo is missing in the collective minds of its leaders.
We should also note that the Cold War ended when the Soviet Union collapsed, because the Russia of that time was not able to challenge the US either economically or militarily. Waiting until Putin or his successor re-incorporates all former Soviet republics into a larger and stronger Russia is just another version of “peace in our time”. We all saw how that turned out.
On a last note: China is watching. A soft, “not our problem” approach to the attack on Ukraine would have emboldened not only Russia into seeking more adventures but also China into invading Taiwan and maybe other neighboring states. At that point China might well lob a missile at a US destroyer transiting the South China sea – and apologize for a “technical error” afterwards.
America has a clear interest into maintaining the current rules-based global order. Not reacting forcefully to any of these events – even though they may not be in the US of A immediate backyard will necessarily lead to the weakening of NATO and the European buffer as well as a re-evaluation of American credibility by its Pacific allies.
Michael Nunez
October 28, 2022 at 2:57 pm
So over 2,000,000 illegals since Biden took office and 80% of them are of military age without kids is not compromising the US Security?
Tamerlane
October 28, 2022 at 2:15 pm
Biden is sending our armed forces to the borders to escalate the situation and threaten Russia. Russia invaded Ukraine because NATO/U.S. insisted on aggressively expanding and pushing towards Russia’s borders, and the move to push troops up to the borders (while even allowing generals to explicitly and openly state that are just waiting for the order to cross into Ukraine) is asinine and illegal. Biden has zero constitutional authority to intervene in Ukraine, or send in troops. This is what the neoconservatives and their liberal interventionist Biden backing buddies are all about—seeking wars not in America’s interests to advance their own utopian vision of a world dominated by them.
Simon Beerstecher
October 31, 2022 at 6:42 am
Tam, nonsense all these so called expansions were initiated by nation states that had been previously occupied and subjugated to Russian authoritarian rule.None wanted ever to be occupied by the dictatorial,fascist and quite franckly brutal regime of whatever color Russian or Soviet again.Hence their perfectly legitimate request to join the world largest collective defence force.If Russia were not so aggresive and paranoid then NATO may not be necessary.However every single bordering Republic to Russia from Mongolia to Kazakstan is continually subjected to bullying and cannot make political desicions without firstly worrying about invasion from their thugish neighbour,perhaps they should be allowed to join NATO too.(Much like Georgia)NATO has never invaded another country,Russia has.
Tamerlane
October 31, 2022 at 10:22 am
That’s facially false, NATO has invaded Serbia as well as Libya. Two non-belligerents… and has aggressively expanded all the way up to Russia’s borders.
GhostTomahawk
October 28, 2022 at 2:53 pm
So after we broke our agreements to not admit former eastern bloc nations into NATO the US decided to threaten to bring in Ukraine. So in order to make this a full fledged war (because it’s time to have a real war I guess) Bidens handlers decided what better way to escalate tensions than to send the airborne dividions as a “defense”. Not fooling me. Airborne is for invading and operating behind enemy lines. Not holding defensive positions. Their presence and purpose isn’t lost on Putin. So if the goal was to turn the heat down… that’s not the way.
Christophe
October 28, 2022 at 2:57 pm
Day after day, like a good worker, Daniel Davies is writing the textbook of the Fifth Column. Utterly disgusting.
It is just an obscene logomachia with no mention of democracy, human rights, torture, rape, deportation, terror, etc. Just the neverending mention of his own concept of national security, so broad and vague that he can use it with the same inconsistency than Putin himself.
He should be sent to Kiev, Bucha, Izyum and attempt to spit his defeatism and despise in the face of Ukrainians. There might be some action.
Tamerlane
October 29, 2022 at 2:36 pm
Hey, Ukrainian troll, the United States is not at war with Russia, nor do the American people wish to be, despite your insane desires. The Russians aren’t our enemies, they’re just another country with whom we are legally neutral which some failed policy makers have decided to agitate for war with.
Ross
October 28, 2022 at 3:52 pm
You can threaten one neighbor but still get your ass kicked by another. Which is what Putin is doing. And what we want to put a stop to. He’s already tried to blackmail Europe with energy and now he’s using the nuclear card. How is this not a NATO problem? According to Dan Japan wasn’t a threat until after Pearl Harbor. Apparently, we have to be personally attacked until we can see someone as a threat. That’s incredibly myopic.
403Forbidden
October 28, 2022 at 4:19 pm
Biden is worse than LBJ.
In 1964, LBJ won the elections largely on a promise not to send the US military to vietnam. Only a few months after being elected he was sending US marines and army rangers over there after the false tonkin gulf resolution.
Today, biden is repeating history, this time in europe.
It’s clear to stop US which likes to manufacture wars, confrontation and conflicts, nations must arm themselves to the teeth with both conventional and nuclear weapons.
US is the babylon of our age, the genghis of our time and the modern carpophorus.
Pete G.
October 29, 2022 at 3:25 am
It was the republicans (George Bush) who got us into the war in Iraq and the Persian Gulf war because of WMD when there wasn’t any. So in your case Biden is the worse president since LBJ but nevermind the wars started by Bush.
Please research your history before you start monkey poo slinging Biden.
Jai
October 28, 2022 at 5:05 pm
The real point is this. America has two geopolitical rivals of any significance: China and Russia. Russian collapse due to its failed war of choice against Ukraine will eliminate Russia as a meaningful conventional military power for at least a generation, and probably much longer. There has never been a lower cost opportunity to get rid of the Russian military as a force than the one that presents itself right now.
That’s the pure self interest version. Morally and in principle there are plenty of even stronger arguments for the firmest possible response to Russian aggression.
HAT451
October 28, 2022 at 8:09 pm
Biden has had problems of something saying what his handler’s don’t want him to say. This time it happened in Poland when he was addressing US troops on March 24, 2022. When he was asked about Ukraine, his reply was, “and you’re gonna see when you’re there,” This was reported by The Kiev Independent from Ukraine, and later walked back via a tweet, and the US administration.
About 8 months later, one brigade of the 101st (ABN) DIV in Rumania, and NATO has been buffed up. This this is about the same amount of time from Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait to the time offensive air operations started against Iraq in the early 1990’s. About the right amount of time to plan, and resource a major military operation.
So one other question to ask, “Is this being done as an ‘October Surprise’ to attempt to affect the US mid term elections?”
Bender
October 28, 2022 at 8:14 pm
And why Daniel Davis keeps writing these propaganda masterpieces on 19fortyfive ?
The russian MOD didn’t have any job openings I guess ?
Tamerlane
October 29, 2022 at 2:37 pm
Go back to Kiev troll.
Fred Adams
October 28, 2022 at 8:23 pm
“America’s national security is not threatened, in any way, by the conflict raging between Ukraine and Russia.”
Idiot.
Tamerlane
October 29, 2022 at 2:40 pm
Our national security here in the United States isn’t threatened by Donbass being in Russia or in Ukraine.
Imbecile.
Keith Brain
October 28, 2022 at 9:00 pm
The idea here should be to force Russia- and the clown in Belorussia- on keeping honest with their border forces. Surround Kaliningrad, do maneuvers right around the few islands they stole from Finland years ago, force them to keep forces dispersed. We don’t have to do a damn thing to them, but keep them honest. Davis has never written an article that doesn’t basically cater to Russia, no surprise there, but putting our forces on the border is meant to send a message. He also must have forgotten sometimes the best defense is a good offense. Russia is not going to talk with the US about a solution in Ukraine unless compelled to, and right now they’d rather have the dubious Turkish leader mediate between them and Ukraine. If we want to end this conflict, just tell China we’ll recognize their annexation of Amur Oblast and the Jewish Oblast in East Russia. That will get troops pulled out asap from Ukraine to defend the most valuable parts of what’s left, Primorsky. If astute enough, POTUS might get them as in China to lay off Taiwan in that case. Those Oblasts are multitudes larger than Taiwan and have the natural resources to help China on many fronts, from living space to energy. It would also remove a big affront, read that as humiliation, China suffered in giving up all that land ages ago.
Tamerlane
October 29, 2022 at 3:15 am
Why Keith?
Why are we a strategic foe of Russia? Why not peel them AWAY from China? Why encroach and to quote you: “surround” them? Why make ourselves more and more a threat to them?!
Surely we would do the same to Mexico if they sought to join a Chinese alliance against “US”(pun intended)… why not recognize their regional sphere and defense interest and co-opt them and their resources against China, our threat to remaining global hegemon? You guys are way too short sighted here and are caught up in emotional moralizing…. Here’s a tip for you, having served in combat abroad over the past 20 years for this country—we do the same thing—unprovoked invasions in our national interest, referendums, “nation building” other cultures in our image… let’s use reality here, not some pie in the sky bullshit.
Be best.
Arash P
October 28, 2022 at 9:12 pm
Americans have not tasted war in their homeland for more than 100 years and as such they have grown too reckless regarding dangers of war.
I hope Russia has planned for this and in any conflict with the US bring the war into the heart of America.
I mean roadside IEDs, trains derailing and water sources poisoning kinda of stuff.
pagar
October 28, 2022 at 10:26 pm
Biden, with his brain pockmarked or filled with space voids caused by dementia and repeated bouts with covid and cancer and possibly bse, hasn’t the foggiest idea that russia has nuke rockets fully capable of bypassing the north american NORAD system.
A war against russia will surely turn USA into a land inhabited by crows, ravens, scorpions and other carrion-consuming critters.
It is written in Revelation for those interested to know.
Pete G.
October 29, 2022 at 3:34 am
I don’t think Trump will do any better do you? I mean you just decide to riddle Biden with unnecessary bullet holes of idiocy when you can’t seem to suggest a better person for the job.
This is typical Republican talking points to smear Biden when they voted against supplying any military assistance to Ukraine which to me suggest the GOP has no better plans but to sabotage Ukraine and give it to Russia as a gift then Russia turns around and attack neighboring NATO states.
You also seem to think Russia dominates US military. Way to praise Russia and Putin. You should move over there. They will like you.
H.R. Holm
October 29, 2022 at 12:25 am
The chickenhawk war rooters replete amongst these comments have no idea what sort of force they want to mess with when it comes to the Russian nuclear arsenal. They could bet every penny they own that the Russians have built their nuclear forces *to* work, even if some of their conventional arms reputedly don’t, and I do not quite believe that, either. Russia has too much of a history of building dependable weapons —the T-34, the ‘Stalin organ’ MLRS-s, the AK-47, the MIG-15 and -21 fighters. Why do we doubt their arsenal? Do the war rooters really care to risk a complete throw of the dice on such a flakey assumption? Will it take them sitting amongst the semi-charred remains of their homes, or be caught up in the panic of a post-detonation mass evacuation/run with what remains of their families to who knows where, before they realize how wrong they were? Shabby arguments about being all macho and “standing up to a dictator” in the light of history regarding this specific situation won’t matter a hill of beans if the balloon goes up big time. (Reminder: Putin is not Hitler!) You people are giving aid and comfort to perhaps the most inept, demented, dangerous shred of human debris ever to occupy the U.S. Presidency, and in more context than just the Ukraine-Russia tiff. The U.S. military does not need to prep for war against Russia. Elements of it need instead to quickly plan—-*and move*—-against the war-mad loons who now pull the strings of the federal government, and that includes all the way to the top of the executive—and legislative—branches before we all die miserably.
exordis
October 29, 2022 at 3:25 am
Mr. Davis’ knowledge of geography and his analysis is somewhat flawed and a little hysterical. While the 101st Airborne troops are present as he described, the Bush carrier battle group is nowhere close to Ukraine. The Adriatic Sea is an arm of the Mediterranean that runs between the east coast of Italy and the Balkans. The Bush’s aircraft could only reach Ukraine from the Adriatic with extensive air refueling support, and they would have to transit other countries’ airspace. Some of those countries, such as Serbia, would almost certainly refuse transit rights. Turkey controls the Bosporus Strait that links the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, and the Turks have closed the Bosporus to military sea traffic, so there’s little likelihood of the Bush and it’s escorts being involved in the Ukraine War.
Rick
October 29, 2022 at 4:21 am
Davis the sniveler.
Tamerlane
October 29, 2022 at 2:41 pm
Rick the anti-American troll.
Rick
October 30, 2022 at 6:16 am
Tamerlane, Do you ever wonder why the russian trolls love Davis? Look in the mirror you fool. Kee flooding to this author’s ridiculous analysis, but know this: the world hates russia, putin and you’re getting your ass kicked by a much smaller seater country.
When this is all over you’ll be China’s bitch isolated from civilized society and unable to travel outside of your shithole country. Life is great in the West!
Tamerlane
October 30, 2022 at 4:24 pm
Rick, you Ukrainians are going to get curb-stomped. Sorry you’re in a rough neighborhood but we in the United States have zero interest in fighting for you or your “freedom” to give our president’s family millions of more dollars while intervening in our presidential campaigns.
Despite your efforts to get the global south of world united with the BRICS in a grand anti-American alliance, you will fail, and we will continue to defend our liberties here.
Rick
October 30, 2022 at 6:34 pm
Comrade Tamerlane, Who are you trying to convince that you’re an American? You are a worthless russian troll on your knees for putin. There is no way in hell a real American would snivel and whimper as you do. Go away russian shitllizard and enjoy your life in a dump.
Explain your support for the non-existent Russian Code of Military Conduct and getting metals for rape, looting, killing women/children, targeting schools and hospitals? I’m guessing you’ll ignore the atrocious behavior or extoll that value of criminality.
Gary Jacobs
October 30, 2022 at 7:47 pm
Tamerlane,
Your ability to completely misread the situation is accelerating in a perpetual downward spiral. Much like Daniel Davis. No wonder why you like his articles so much.
You lashing out at others calling them trolls is a new level of projection, even for you.
I look forward to you eating your words as Ukraine keeps winning, and the US continues to support that winning. An objective person does not have to be a Dem to realize that. I am of course not affiliated with either party, despite your bully tactics to force me into being a D. As usual with most of what you post, nothing could be further from the truth.
As well, all one has to do is be decent at basic math to know that 57 House Republicans and 11 senators voted against the Ukraine aid package earlier this year. There are 435 seats in the House of Reps, and the Rs had about 215 seats. That basic math will tell you that wing of the Republican party remains a minority, and will remain a minority after this election. Contrary to your faux notion of Biden being ‘my guy’, nothing could be further from the truth, and I welcome a bit of divided government to keep Presidents from either party in check. In fact, we might even get smarter energy policy [among others] out of the deal making that comes from negotiating further aid to Ukraine should the Republicans gain enough seats. I would LOVE that. I’d love to see Keystone XL restarted, and a simplified process for Oil and Gas leases on Federal land. Those are Republican platform issues that I have been in favor of and have stated so repeatedly on this forum.
You will find that there is a strong bipartisan group supporting Ukraine. Just a few days ago SASC chairman Jack Reed [D] and James Inhofe [R] the highest ranking R on the cmte introduced an amendment to the NDAA “that would allow the Department of Defense to procure high-priority weapon systems to support the Ukrainian military”.
Also of note is that the new ‘Lend Lease Act’ to support Ukraine hasnt been used yet, but it is effective until Sept. 2023 if memory serves. That gives Biden a fall back tool if the Republicans do take congress and become an overly obstructive of support for Ukraine.
I still dont think there will be a full stop before Lend Lease as you will also find strong support for Ukraine from Lindsey Graham, Mitch Mcconnell and other “moderate” Republicans. They should be able to broker deals to keep support for Ukraine flowing. As mentioned, We might even get smarter energy policy out of that.
Bottom line: if you really hate Ukraine that much…you are in for a long losing streak ahead.
Have a liberating day.
Tamerlane
October 30, 2022 at 10:40 pm
Rick,
While you were learning to type in some Ukrainian troll farm, I was serving the United States abroad in the same type of moronic wars you again seek to draw us into. You, like the 90% of pro-Ukrainian posts online; are a troll, and what you post cheers for the destruction of American power and hegemony. Your calls for American intervention would, if answered and adopted, damage the United States and our ability to project power. You clearly have never served in our armed forces nor seen war, otherwise you’d never be so flippant to push the United States into a thermonuclear war with Russia over what to them is an existential interest but which to us is a marginal interest at best.
Why don’t you try keeping your Ukrainian meatbeaters off your cellphone and on your weapon. Fight for yourself instead of drawing us into your own shithole’s struggle.
Gary,
As usual, you are completely wrong in your amateur hour prognostications and Democrat cheerleading. Having been proven right time and time again over the past 9 months, I have been watching for you to acknowledge your positions (which have been followed) have only led to escalation of the war, its prolongment, and increase in collateral deaths. In every pronouncement you’ve advocated for weakening the United States and further pushing America into a non-interest at great cost to those of us who actually fight for this country—not you.
Also, you’re an inveterate liar in your recent protestations to be something other than a rabid warmongering big government advocate for international fascism and hyper-aggression. Your views are utterly outside the American mainstream historically, and are counter to our interests.
As you are well aware, I have nothing against Ukraine, I have something however for America, which unlike you I care about preserving and advancing. You seek to advance foreign countries ahead of our own. You are disloyal and double-minded to the United States.
Have a liberty filled day!
WillLongfield
October 29, 2022 at 6:03 am
The comments on this board are ridiculous. The commentators clearly know nothing about Russia, Eastern Europe or the Ukraine, other that what hysterical Western news sources broadcast.
Russia is not looking to conquer Europe. They sought to keep Ukraine neutral and prevent the persecution of ethnic Russians in the Eastern and Southern part of the country. That is clearly impossible now, and so annexation is the only option. They have no interest in annexing Western Ukraine, although they will actively seek to prevent it joining NATO. The US would do the same thing were Mexico to suddenly announce it is militarily allied with Communist China.
Further, despite the breathless Instagram-ready posts of victory after victory, Ukraine is resource-poor and running out of manpower. Russia, contrary to ill-informed Western right-think, has used only a fraction of her strength, and possesses immense resources and stamina. The glib Western encouragement of this war is leading to terrible suffering in the Ukraine, and there is no end in sight.
It is true that Russia DOES seek to end the global dominance of the US as a longer-term goal. Despite what Americans believe, much of the world resents US hegemony and abject hypocrisy – the last major illegal invasion of another country was the US invasion of Iraq, in the course of which the US pounded Iraq from the air for 17 days before annihilating its army mercilessly. America would do well to be a little more humble and a little less strategically obtuse in its dealings with the world outside of Western Europe. Russia’s actions against the Western-dominated order of the world are popular. Outside of NATO, much of the world is ambivalent or quietly supportive of Russia.
None of this is good news for America or for the people of Ukraine. If America does not possess the skill and drive to maintain her position as the global hegemon, then she will not last.
Comrade Misfit
October 29, 2022 at 7:34 am
I disagree. Putin is reviving the Law of Conquest, which has been in decline since 1945. The idea that borders can be adjusted by conquest is an evil one.
Second, the idea that wars in Europe don’t reach us is flawed. They sure as hell did in the 20th Century. It is very much in our interest that his ambitions to recreate the Russian Empire be stopped.
WillLongfield
October 29, 2022 at 11:24 am
Comrade Misfit –
On the adjustment of borders – borders have fluctuated throughout history, do you really believe history has really ended? The borders of YOUR country may suit you just fine, but many other countries in the world have borders that are incorrectly drawn and destabilize their region (e.g. Ukraines).
You seem to be entirely duped by the breathless opinion pages of the NYT. Russia has no ambition to “recreate the Russian Empire”, has not stated that as a goal and has done nothing to indicate that. This is a dispute over the treatment of the Russian population in eastern Ukraine, nothing more. At this point, given the ferocity of the war, Russia has concluded that there is no hope of safeguarding the Russian population there within Ukraine’s borders, hence the annexation.
It is Ukraine that provoked this war by refusing to abide by the Minsk accords. Russia had at least as much justification as America supposedly did in its attack on Iraq (and Libya, and Syria, and Afganistan . . . )
Prometheus
October 29, 2022 at 8:10 am
What I see in this article is a good analysis and a well suggested course of action for the US to counter the Putin regime that controls Russia.
Although, as already written about the problems of the Putin regime with the army, Putin-controlled Russia could not even use all the manpower at the beginning of the invasion, when the Putin regime used only about 60-70% due to problems with logistics. But the truth is that the Putin regime controls most of the well-made, high-tech nuclear weapons that were developed in the USSR and could be activated at any moment. The Russian army is poorly equipped and trained, but its nuclear forces are at their best, so the rhetoric that “the Putin regime must be confronted on the battlefield” is simply insane.
All of you who are commenting that Russia and the Russians have something to do with all this madness, you are all like the figures of National Socialist (Nazi) Germany who had the final solution for the Jews.
You all start preying on the Russians and the US, always trying to reduce everyone to the issue of nation and race, for so long being a country of a slave regime and a country of oppressed minorities. The US has always tried to do this, starting with the First World War, when they spread the ideas of nationalism, and then National Socialism.
Russia is not a democracy, but a dictatorship, even more than just a dictatorship, it is occupied by the Putin regime, which means that the people are in no way responsible for the actions of the regime, and the United States is however a democracy, which means that any US citizen is fully responsible for the actions of the country, which include torture and murder, no matter what kind of people, drone attacks around the world, terrorizing other people who are controlled by dictators who, in fact, were created by America itself. Americans or those who want to become American citizens should ask for forgiveness for the 2 atomic bombings of Japan, the genocide in Vietnam, the invasion of Granada, Panama, etc., terrorism, the suppression of races and peoples, inciting them to fight each other, etc.
PS look for the AZOV regiment, the service unit of the armed forces of Ukraine
their official insignia was not only invented by National Socialist (Nazi) Germany, but was also the official insignia of this regiment in the National Socialist army of Germany during World War II.
and the slogan Ukraine for Ukrainians meaning Russians or even Americans and Jews are not allowed.
Yrral
October 29, 2022 at 9:22 am
American should not be in the business of protecting White Privilege in Europe, sending minority service people in countries,that not had a good record with their own minority, sending Black , Hispanic and other minorities in backwards thinking countries,would be an insult too them
Eric
October 29, 2022 at 9:46 am
See also: “America’s national security is not threatened, in any way, by the conflict raging between Poland and Nazi Germany.”
Plamen
October 29, 2022 at 1:27 pm
You are right, Putin has been following the Hitler WWII playbook every step of the way. Why should we do nothing while he is taking out country after country in Europe, stealing their population and industrial resources, until the cost of defending whatever Daniel Davis considers our “national security” grows tremendously?
Jim
October 29, 2022 at 10:17 am
The Biden policy towards Ukraine is on shaky ground.
How do I know?
Look at this comment board.
It’s like pack of wolves… something like Twitter, where there are so many comments (of various qualities of analysis)…
If there are 20 or 30 comments… each is like an individual wolf taking a snarling & snapping bite @ the sheep (Davis is not a sheep… but go with the analogy).
It’s almost impossible to respond to each wolf’s bite.
The poor sheep gets overwhelmed with a multiplicity of bites… down it goes & the pack moves in… for its final reward.
Well, you know what happens next.
In this regard… for the pack it’s quantity that overwhelms the prey.
BUT… we are humans with reason.
So, in civilized society… it’s the quality of the reasoning based on the evidence at hand.
Not so with a pack of wolves.
Given this pack of wolves which needs to be beaten back:
(with a whip & chair… like @ the circus)…
None of the comments gives a coherent argument why Ukraine is a vital national security interest of the American People.
No just a pack of assumptions.
Why so?
In my opinion, it’s because there isn’t a coherent set of reasons for WHY Ukraine is vital to the American People.
No, it’s just animal passion… wolves… drooling, stomachs growling at the prospect of their next meal.
We need better than that when potentially the fate of the world is at stake.
Sure, you can play in the sandbox… unless it gets turned into molten glass… with a mushroom cloud overhead.
Neil Ross Hutchings
October 29, 2022 at 1:26 pm
Another well written article. As usual, some of the comments leave me bewildered.
First, I fail to recall any past comments by Davis where he accused Putin of being irrational. I believe Davis has only referred to Putin’s possible use of nuclear weapons as a response against direct NATO attacks on Russia. Very rational.
Second, can we please put to rest the ongoing comparisons to Chamberlain. Historians pretty much now agree that it was Britain’s only option at the time as it allowed them additional time to re-arm. Nobody really believed that it would appease Hitler, that was just the spin they put on the deal at the time. You never know what negotiations will result in until you start talking.
Thirdly, the U.S did not declare war on Germany for its actions in Europe, it declared war on Germany only because Germany first declared war on the United States. I believe the U.S. would have preferred to profit from the war for as long as it was possible without getting directly involved.
Fourth, can we stop referring to the so-called battle for Kyiv as being a great Ukranian victory and a devastating loss for Russia. It was neither. We can only guess what the Kremlin’s original motivation might have been for the initial advance on Kyiv. As evidenced by the recent Russian attacks on key Ukranian infrastructure, Putin could have easily have launched similar attacks on day one of the invasion, but he didn’t. Just sayin’.
Fifth, can we acknowledge that the number one foreign policy priority for the last 100 years for the United States has always been to cripple any attempts at any one country or countries forming a threat to U.S. hegemony. Whether it be Nazi Germany, Middle Eastern Arab States, or in this case, a Pan-European partnership involving closer economic tues between Russia and Europe (Germany). This war is just as much about preventing closer ties between Germany’s industrial might and Russia’s scientific and resource wealth as it is about sending a message to China about Taiwan. I agree with the commenter who said it’s funny how no one talks about the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage anymore.
Sixth, making direct reference to Kyiv or Moscow statements about exact enemy losses is comparable to quoting Pentagon data during the Vietnam war. Pointless, other than for propaganda and fog of war purposes. An unbiased objective view of this conflict, both militarily or politically, does not currently exist in any main stream media or government agency. I find Davis to be one of the most objective sources available.
Seventh, there has never been a strategic risk to Europe or the United States by this local action by Russia. Just look at the initial statements by NATO prior to the invasion that pretty much green-lighted any military incursion into eastern Ukraine by Russia. Ukraine has no strategic importance to the West outside of providing a necessary buffer for Russia against NATO.
Finally, it’s about the economy, stupid. Increased congressional funding for the military industrial complex, american jobs, and a bump in support prior to the mid-term elections. And a chance to bloody an arch rival, as was done previously in Afghanistan, without the direct threat to U.S. and EU military personnel. A somewhat cowardly action by NATO, but understandable. All Davis has been doing all along has been to try to quantify the merit and risk in that choice of action. He’s about as much of a Putin lackey as your former President Trump was.
I closed with that last statement solely as a gift to the trolls that routinely comment on this blog 🙂
TrustbutVerify
October 29, 2022 at 4:10 pm
As with the Navy, and the dearth of hulls in the US Navy for worldwide commitments, it makes a difference if you are PRESENT. If you are not there, within gun and missile range and in force, then you cannot affect what happens.
So preparedness is not uncalled for. Nobody wants the US and NATO to intervene at this point unless Putin really does something stupid like pop a nuke, invade another country, or start bringing in OTHER countries (once it becomes multiple nations attacking one, the bets are off – at least relative to air and missile support from NATO).
We can’t let Putin escalate – especially with nuclear blackmail – and get his way. If we do, it just shows him the path for next time. So here, now, is the place to stop him – much like Hitler and the Sudentenland.
Kelvin Clarke
October 30, 2022 at 6:17 am
If Daniel Davis, you can’t comprehend the monumental strategic significance of Ukraine for its’ own sake, just consider for a minute….
what would China make from a western abandonment of Ukraine….
thinking Taiwan here….
Jim
October 30, 2022 at 4:33 pm
Kevin,
Please provide a coherent set of reasons why Ukraine is a vital national security interest to the American People (as opposed to the elite U. S. foreign policy blob).
Assumptions, “you know” isms,” and “what about” isms doesn’t cut it.
You’d be doing everybody a favor because so far nobody with similar views as yourself have been able to do that… which includes Joe Biden and his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken… and the rest of the neoconservative blob.
Think of that; we’re on the cliff of nuclear war and the President of the United States hasn’t stated to the American People (in any sense of a detailed analysis) why Ukraine is a vital national security interest to the American People.
So, again, you’d be doing everybody a big favor, if you did so, here.
Mark
October 30, 2022 at 11:41 pm
If we don’t beat these dictators from forcibly overrunning democracies now they will continue to do so. History tells us they have to be stopped.
Pandora
October 31, 2022 at 5:42 am
Comments should be disabled. These comments make me realize that if anything bad were to happen to the world now, everyone would just be calling each other names, and beating each other up.
I don’t know if comments make money, maybe that’s the reason.
The internet is a foul place of snipers, that beget real people on the streets- acting the same as they do on the internet.
I don’t want to live with any of you in this world. I am surprised females actually mate with you.
Your name calling concerning races of people, when it is really some militaries, and their politicians- a minority of the world- causing things, is extremely telling.We all came from Africa, and all tribes of humans on earth have been plundering and killing to get the borders we are at today. There are no “natives,” or “originals.”
There are thieves, killers, pacifists, and peaceful martyrs.
You keep forgetting that with your actions, and your mouths- you are going to kill your own mother.
governments and militaries
Roger Bacon
October 31, 2022 at 3:47 pm
I hope when the Republicans retake the House next year that they will make future aid to Ukraine contingent upon funding for a border wall with Mexico. If we can sent $60 billion to secure Ukraine’s borders then we can afford $25 billion to secure our own.
P.S. I’m actually starting to feel sorry for Davis as he gets massively ratioed with every article he writes. Just stop.
Rick
October 31, 2022 at 6:07 pm
Comrade Tamerlane, why is it you can’t comment on the atrocities committed by your fellow russian criminals? You are a worthless piece of crap and the only ones agreeing with you are of the same ilk. I do find it fascinating that you persist is the face of outright hated for you and your country. Have a really shitty life, comrade.
Care to comment about the russian conscripts forced into gay prostituition? I thought not. BTW, I’d rather be in Kyiv than anywhere in your dump.
Did they give you a new Lada for your weak efforts?
1KoolKat
November 1, 2022 at 7:12 am
if one understands the prime directives of the US then the deployment of troops and exercises make perfect sense.
The Prime directives:
1. Treaties are the supreme law (super law) of the land (Article VI US Constitution). US bound by law to defend allies.
2. Extended Deterrence, US commitment to defend allies up to and including the usage of the big Nuke.