Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week became the first foreign wartime leader since Winston Churchill in December 1942 to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress. While he received a rousing standing ovation for his remarks and will likely secure $47 billion in additional support from Congress, it is now necessary for Congress to explain to the American people how U.S. interests are being advanced by the nearly $100 billion we’ve given Ukraine to date, what this new support will be used for, and how we will know if the money has been wisely spent.
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First, let’s examine what Ukraine got as a result of Zelensky’s trip. The marquis capacity was Biden’s formally announcement that the U.S. Patriot air defense system will be sent to Ukraine, along with over 200,000 rounds of artillery, rockets, and tank rounds. While many in the U.S. and Ukraine were excited about the Patriot announcement, it is important to understand what one battery can and cannot do.
Limited Effect of a Patriot
Last week Russia launched its ninth round of strategic missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since mid-October, crippling almost half of the country’s electricity generation. Zelensky has been pleading for air defense from the United States and the West almost since the beginning of the war. In the past months, however, the West has been more than generous, providing large numbers of modern air defense systems. The question: Does adding this Patriot battery represent a game-changer for Ukraine? The honest short answer: no.
A Patriot battery ordinarily operates as part of an integrated defense system that may include numerous U.S. and NATO installations. A battery requires a staff of 90 personnel, which will typically need 90 days of training before they can go into operation. A single battery, however, can generally defend a single point target. It is possible for a battery to defend a large portion of, say, the capital city of Kyiv, but even then, not the entire city. As exposed in 2019 when a Saudi-operated Patriot system failed to stop a complex aerial attack from Iran, the system is not foolproof.
The reality is that some number of months from now, a single Patriot will go into operation at a selected location in Ukraine. It won’t change the broader dynamics of Ukrainian anti-missile capabilities.
What Ukraine Says It Needs
Assuming U.S. President Joe Biden eventually signs the $47 billion support package into law, an examination of where that money goes exposes that only about $14 billion will go toward additional new weapons.
In a series of interviews earlier this month in The Economist and the Guardian, top Ukrainian military and political leaders specified the minimum weaponry requirements to give Ukraine a realistic chance to take the offensive in 2023. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, commander of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said he needed at least 1,500 modern armored vehicles (including 300 tanks and 500 artillery pieces). During Zelensky’s Washington speech, he added “I assure you that Ukrainian soldiers can perfectly operate American tanks and planes themselves.”
The fact that Zelensky left Washington and Biden remained silent on sending more than one Patriot battery and no tanks, armored personnel carriers, or hundreds of new artillery pieces is telling.
An analysis of what the United States and NATO are doing – and what they are not doing – makes it clear that our primary objective is indeed to avoid any direct clashes with Russia that all too easily could spiral into a nuclear conflict. That is the right course of action, and I commend the White House for their considered restraint. However, that leaves another question unaddressed: What is America’s intended end state in this conflict, and what is Congress’ strategy regarding future support?
Since the package was signed into law last week, the U.S. has now allocated over $100 billion on the war in Ukraine, which is $16 billion more than the entire Russian military budget for 2023. Congress owes it to the American people to explain how the expenditure of that much money for a non-treaty ally provides $100 billion-worth of national security. What does Congress expect that money to produce? (In other words, what is the expected or hoped-for outcome?) How will we know if the money is a good investment – and what will Congress do in 2023?
These are not minor questions, because as we have seen from two decades of disastrous involvement in our own war in Afghanistan – where we squandered close to $2 trillion – Congress can often get carried away with the emotions of a situation. Many suggest that just perpetuating the war by providing enough weapons and support to Ukraine to prevent it from losing helps U.S. interests by ensuring Russian conventional military power will continue to be degraded. That, however, is a dubious strategy, as it concurrently ensures that the Ukraiiane people will continue to die in large numbers.
The stakes are too high for mistakes in our support of Ukraine. Before allocating another dollar in 2023, Congress should explain to the American people how this money advances the vital national interests of our country. Otherwise, we need a new plan.
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Author Expertise and Experience: A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of the book “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
TotallyNotBiased
December 27, 2022 at 5:27 pm
Mr. Davis is working overtime to warrant another kremlin check 😀
Gary Jacobs
December 27, 2022 at 5:29 pm
Somehow Davis completely missed the prior announcement on the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb GLSDB. at 150km range and able to be launched from HIMARS, M270s, and from shipping containers… GLSDB is Likely to be a pivotal addition to Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian rear areas, and cause havoc in their logistics. But then again Cherry picking info is Davis’ standard MO.
As well, a basic review of events shows that the US introduces a small number of a certain weapon into Ukraine, and then ramps up. That’s what happened with HIMARS, among others.
We may witness a similar series of events with Patriot. of course it isnt foolproof. Nothing is. But you have to start somewhere with ballistic missile defense. Especially if Iran sells Russia a large supply of theirs. But then again Davis doesnt want to help Ukraine defend itself so of course he doesnt want to explore any precedent on ramping up of weapons systems for Ukraine.
once again Davis proves why he is one of, if not the worst author who still posts on 1945.
403Forbidden
December 27, 2022 at 5:51 pm
The US should send as much money and weaponry to ukraine as humanly possible.
Even if it rankles taxpayers.
It will force moscow to resort to the use of tactical nukes kn order to put the IS-backed neo-nazis in their proper place. Straight in hell, for instance.
Friend
December 27, 2022 at 6:18 pm
MAGA is trying to make up American ethnicity so it could claim ownership of the American land as its own. MAGA is not an ethnicity so it has to make up its own russian and iranian ethnicity as the closest to its supposed own, which it doesn’t have, and thus can’t claim American land as the property of the Republican Party.
Putin and Ali Khamenei of Russia and Iran have made it very clear to the Republican Party that it had to make up its ethnicity as Russian and Iranian if the russian bots were to again rig the elections.
Russian rigging of the elections in favor of Trump doesn’t come for free. You need to declare Russian and Iranian identity and claim the American
and. In essence, the Republican Party has sold its soul to the Devil, and now it’s paying the price
MAGA is basically an internal attempt at a land grab that Russia is trying to perform in Ukraine.
Frend
December 27, 2022 at 6:23 pm
Look pal, there’s no more Republican Party ever again, mkay.
It’s getting abolished,
you can’t have no fucking iranians claiming no land in America,
you’d soon have a Donbas in central Iowa
Steven
December 27, 2022 at 6:23 pm
403 you’re somewhat of a joke.
Jim
December 27, 2022 at 6:31 pm
The elite have their thumb on the scale.
Or they’re trying to put thumb on the scale.
Always have…
The elite want this war… damned the consequences.
thomas
December 27, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Jim, The elite do not care about who is or will pay for this war. The elite profit from it.
Gary Jacobs
December 27, 2022 at 7:12 pm
Jim,
LoL, as usual you are the exact opposite of correct. Perhaps the elite want this war…The Russian elite. The US did just about everything possible to avoid this war.
As well, you never bother to consider the consequences of allowing Russia to run roughshod over Ukraine. What it would mean for a mafia state prone to using blackmae as Russia has with Gas … to control Ukraine’s agriculture industry. You claim you are so concerned with ‘the global south’… but you fail to consider their well being all the time.
As well, The US is a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum [as is Russia]. For that agreement [which Russia has never lived up to], The US helped convince Ukraine to give up its nukes and strategic bombers and send them to Russia in exchange for a piece of paper that ensures Ukraine’s territorial integrity. but you never consider the consequences of allowing Russia to discard their past agreements and take Ukraine’s territory by force.
If you think that Russia would stop there, and not have moved into the Baltics, Poland, or other EU countries… you are as naive as Neville Chamberlain.
Thankfully Biden and his advisors are at least smart enough to not listen to people like you presenting such a faux notion of smarts. You are completely divorced from the historical reality of Russian Imperialism. Tens of Millions of people have suffered from Russian tyranny over the years…and all you want to do is appease them. Those days are done.
Have a liberating day.
Goran
December 27, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Davis: “Many suggest that just perpetuating the war by providing enough weapons and support to Ukraine to prevent it from losing helps U.S. interests by ensuring Russian conventional military power will continue to be degraded. That, however, is a dubious strategy, as it concurrently ensures that the Ukraiiane people will continue to die in large numbers.”
Of all of the examples of Daniel’s inability to write a coherent analysis, this one takes the cake, as the entire article is written in support of putting America’s strategic interests at the forefront, while in conclusion of that very article, he switches gears and makes it about Ukrainian lives!?
Daniel Redys
December 27, 2022 at 7:31 pm
I figure that he is basing his feeling on the value of the dollar back in 1970… back then 2 billion dollars(1970) would worth about 100 billion(2022). The US dollar is pretty darn worthless compared to things in 1970. 100 billion back then would be worth real money now (5 Trillion or so.) Right now 100 billion is just some loose change in the governments spending spreadsheets.
abraham lincoln
December 27, 2022 at 7:47 pm
Daniel Davis. Ha Ha Ha Ha.
Friend
December 27, 2022 at 9:20 pm
America is garbage and all their weapons are garbage as a result of america being a garbage. They had 11 aircraft carriers in Vietnam and could even bomb Hanoi.
They’ve still got those same garbage 11 carriers and they still receive $900 billion to float around pretending they are though and they still can’t bomb anybody. Except they could maybe bomb africa, I mean how much lower can you go than Vietnam
Walker
December 27, 2022 at 10:39 pm
Need an explanation? The continuation of the Western world of capitalization on good will and international trade leading to wealth all around.
That can only be achieved by nations unafraid of attacks from their neighbors who don’t hold the same principles as we do.
Russia must be disciplined to learn to play properly with the other kids in the playground.
People like 403 are funny. They are sweating bullets knowing that their goals of building a fascist Russia as a force in world politics is going up in smoke. Ukraine with the support of the rest of the world is crushing th bones of the Russian corrupt military. The Russian trolls if they want to help Russia so much should join the war and go to Bakhmut.
GhostTomahawk
December 27, 2022 at 11:12 pm
Not 1 more cent. The US needs to vote out all of these proxy war supporting war mongers. They have led us to ruin and have profiteered every step of the way while loading each and every one of us and the following generations with the debt.
Commentar
December 28, 2022 at 12:50 am
Congress isn’t answerable to the US public.
Let the warmaking body clear all the decks and send everything over to ukraine, including their grandmothers.
The world’s likely going to witness ww3 in europe in 2023 which is actually only a few days away.
When that happens, let’s see how Congress going to react. Head quickly for the mountains or go straight to outer space, or volunteer for the frontline in ukraine.
Simon Beerstecher
December 28, 2022 at 4:39 am
Self explanatory to F…up the Russians with , as a result of them trying to F..up Europe.
The Al U Know
December 28, 2022 at 7:46 am
Good analysis of the limitations of the Patriot missile system and how labor intensilve it is. Not to mention the technical know-how required. This war is coming down to guns, grunts and guts. Your other colleagues have started to acknowledge this, little by little.
How many HIMARs are in Ukraine?
…well…there are 20.
-But 200… in Poland!! How useful, ugh. Sigh. The front is pretty big, nearly 1200km long.
$100M for arty and other ammo. It is what Zelensky wanted. But is it enough? Even he and UAF acknowledged there will be no peace soon. As they will be asked to sacrifice more of themselves more and more you have to see an endgame coming. Oh no, not 1 year, we are past that. 2? 5? 10? That, is why there are ever more whispers of a negotiated settlement.
@Gary Jacobs, other nations were fools to gleefully put their hopes in Wunderwaffen weapons to little effect. Davis is not cherry picking, just focused on what MSM like CNN and leaders like Biden and Zelensky are focused on. The heart of the deal. You move your misplaced hope to this… GLSDB. Guess Zelensky nor Zaluhzny, nor Biden, nor MSM/CNN don’t read or are not briefed on those packages adding up to $100B. Or they’ve read it and don’t place the same value on the GLSDB that you do.
150km. That covers just over the distance from Luhansk to Bakhmut. Sounds like a small distance. I believe that Soviet era missile drone covered 400 plus km in getting to that Russian air base.
Guns, grunts and guts. The only reason this war will stop militarily will be if the UAF assessment is accurate and Russia is exausting it’s pool of arty and other conventional ammo.
The other half is Ukraine. If they keep getting the ammo how far do they take it?To the pre-2014 borders. Yeah, like Putin or the ones that want him to be even more hard-line(the people who seem to have his ear) in Russia will accept that. All the way to Moscow, with a little help from the carving knife of China.
Yeah, some days I wish someone would just ’73 Eastings’ Russia. But wishing is not getting and what I get is a harsh reality.
-The Al U Know
Steven
December 28, 2022 at 7:47 am
Whenever I see a Davis article I just go straight to the comments, lol. Very entertaining.
Also Gary Jacobs I read all your comments and I think you are brilliant.
Yrral
December 28, 2022 at 8:27 am
Jacob,An American fool and his money soon parted Google New Yorker Jones Ukrainain Abandoned Foreign Legion
The Al U Know
December 28, 2022 at 9:13 am
@ Goran
Well, ugh yeah, it is why we the West justify our capitalist, democratic, and just as importantly rule-of law system.
To support the rights of people, who are valuable in and of themselves. This is embedded in the UN acknowledgement of human rights. Of which the USA backs. Sort of. We will see if this really matters.
But do we demonstrate our adherence to these principles in action?
The initial reaction is yeah, we support the Ukrainian people.
The USA gives guns. The guns are just enough for the Ukrainians to fight, and die. Russians too, but here in the West we pride ourselves on the value of human life. In principle. The US knows it is not enough, even if it is at more than $100B now. But shouldn’t that principle, that all humans have value, be the end that means we cut the penny-pinching to meet that end? In other words, at all costs.
Currently, the US is not adequately protecting the Ukrainian people, with $100B. If they do not adequately protect them they do not value them. Through negligent inaction or inability to live up to this promise, the human right to life is not being upheld.
If they are not upholding that right they claim to value, is that hypocrisy, or plain impotency?
What else can the USA do then to meet THEIR strategic interests?
The USA can pivot. It is now not about protecting the rights of ALL people the UN wants it to. It is about protecting the value of ITs people. At 1/8th the US’ military budget for the current year many, like Daniel Davis, are questioning whether that 1/8th is resulting in this current situation. True the West may feel the effects of the war at the pumps and at the grocery store but it is no more noticable in our lives than the Will Smith slap. Or the average increase from 2-3years ago from 4 hours a week to 4 hours each day on social media. The guns and the money are not saving Ukrainian lives, but their lives are saving the West from the severity of the ‘sacrifices’ we would have to make to protect ALL people. Perhaps people would be more spurned into action if Russia successfully wrecked social media with a hack than ‘doritos’ dropping on civilians like the buzz bombs from the last World War.
Today’s reality is that propping up of what remains of the status quo is adequate for America’s strategic interests. For now. As for our values of human rights, and more specifically those of the Ukrainians: ‘Fine if we fulfill these, but fine too if we don’t.’
-The Al U Know
Jim
December 28, 2022 at 9:18 am
President Zelensky came to Washington and left with the money and one Patriot system, one battery.
Zelensky wanted advanced tanks, long range missiles/drones, and airplanes.
Zelensky did not get any of the above.
(However, word on the street is that the U. S. secretly bought 120 T72 tanks from Morocco… to be provided to Ukraine.)
Ukraine has burned through a huge amount of military equipment… so much so it physically can’t be replaced… to the amount & sophistication it had at the start of the war.
Can’t be done.
I second Davis’s words regarding the Biden Administration: they have restrained from providing weapons that would cause a General European War or a nuclear war.
That restraint is extremely important and must be acknowledged even if I strongly disagree with the overall policy.
The End Goal: avoid a General European War.
To that goal: contain the battlefield to Eastern Ukraine, East of the Dnieper river.
If you want a General European War… the Russians go into Western Ukraine… West of Kiev… from Belarus… keep Belarus out of the war… anymore than they already have… (General European War is the death of Europe.)
Attrition is the strategy the Russians are carrying out… in other words, strangulation of the Ukraine Army… @ Bakhmut… the meat grinder… inevitable and effective… Operation Anaconda.
Slowly twisting in the wind.
Whodunnit
December 28, 2022 at 9:31 am
Comrade Davies never fails to elicit a response. I’m curious to see if this latest article holds as little weight as his previous analyses. Realising that his previous declarations that Ukraine have no hope of holding out, to advancing, to winning the war, he now changes tack and focuses on the aid dollars in the delusional hope that someone, somewhere finds his irrelevant ramblings insightful.
I look forward to the next episode of Comrade Davies world of make believe. If nothing else, the comments from the crazies are always amusing.
Gary Jacobs
December 28, 2022 at 9:54 am
The Al U Know,
LoL, Of course there are other factors… but in case you hadnt noticed HIMARS and the GMLRS rounds made a HUGE difference in the Russian retreat from Kherson. The Ukrainians decimated Russian logistics and made it impossible for them to support their troops on the right bank of the Dnipro.
And HIMARS has been wreaking havoc on Russian logistics, troop concentrations, etc… in other places in Ukraine. The Russians were forced to adjust by dispersing their ammo and moving their logistics hubs out of range. The GLSDB is an extension of that strategy.
If you take out a map and measured the distance from the right bank of the Dnipro to the north part of Crimea, you will find that’s 150km…and the 2 major choke points for supplies coming in are on the E105 and E97 highways are well within range. From Krasnoperekopsk to Nova Kakhovka is 100km. That leaves 50 to spare on the other side of the river. The Russian logistic hub of Dzhankoi would be just out of range. But the intersection of the E105 and P47 is in range. As is the new Russian command base in Henichesk. It’s only 100km from there to Kakhovka. Again leaving 50 km to spare on the other side of the river.
Also in range would be Melitopol, Mauriopul, and Berdyansk. At that point all they would have left for logistics is coming in from Russia directly east of Donbass.
And since the Kerch Bridge will be unable to support heavy transport until July, the winter weather has made ferry / boat transport intermittent at best, and almost the entire M14 Highway would be in firing range… Russian logistics along almost the entirety of Southern Ukraine will be suffering under the same strategy that caused Russians to retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson.
Have a liberating day.
Gary Jacobs
December 28, 2022 at 10:48 am
Jim,
Once again you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what is going on. Zelensky was making a point about Ukrainians being able to operate any modern weapons. Including US tanks. In reality the German Leopard 2 is much better suited for Ukraine than the US Abrams. not least of which because the Leopard runs on Diesel, whereas the Abrams is basically a jet engine.
However, the most important part is that just about all of Ukraine’s neighbors operate Leopards and there is a ready made logistics and repair support system in the surrounding countries. No such system exists for Abrams.
And now Finish MP’s are pushing their government to become the first European country to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks. Like so many of the other western systems Ukraine has received, it will start with a small number so they can work out the growing pains of operating it…and then more will be provided.
Anders Adlerkreutz (SFP), who represents the defense committee and the head of the “Green” party in the Finnish parliament, Atte Harjanne, are leading the effort in the government of Finland. Finland has about 200 Leopard Tanks. I suspect they would start with sending about 15-20.
I expect Poland to be either the 1st or the second country to send Leopards. especially since they are buying 250 M1 Abrams, and close to 1000 K2s from S. Korea. They are about to have Leopards to spare. A lot depends on when those other tanks arrive.
It may take some convincing for Germany to allow the transfer… but with every Russian atrocity committed against Ukraine there seems to be more willingness to provide Ukraine with the weapons they need to win.
Have a liberating day.
Paul
December 28, 2022 at 12:40 pm
Forbidden403…how about one trillion are you down with that?
Enfield
December 28, 2022 at 1:23 pm
US and their western allies are buying time. They can’t do anything else at the moment. There is gigantic geopolitical movement going on. It sweeps over the entire planet and cannot be stopped. This war is a by-product of that movement. Completely innocent people will be sacrificed by the west trying to stop something that has already happened and will affect future generations forever. It’s already too late anyway.
Yrral
December 28, 2022 at 2:33 pm
This sum up Ukraine money pit Google The Mozart Group Ukraine
Jim
December 28, 2022 at 2:33 pm
We will see, the German Leopard 2 is an advanced tank, better suited to the fighting in Ukraine.
How many… I don’t know.
One of the question marks… in a war with so many question marks.
Too many question marks to put American Soldiers into Western Ukraine in concert with the Polish Army.
Scramble around for tanks all you want… the battlefield has been shaped by the Russians.
The world awaits Russia’s move… the initiative is their’s… stay in Eastern Ukraine… contain the battlefield.
Rick
December 28, 2022 at 4:25 pm
What would Davis do if he couldn’t undermine US support for democracy? Draw out encouragement from russian trolls?
Gary Jacobs
December 28, 2022 at 4:25 pm
Jim,
LoL… the Russians are not shaping the battlefield at this stage, and havent been for months. You consistently and epicly fail to read the situation…even when it is at its most basic.
It is in fact the Ukrainians with HIMARS, HARMS, their partisan activity, etc… that have shaped the battlefield for months now. That’s why the Ukrainians have advanced so much in Kherson Kharkiv, and now Luhansk. They shaped the battlefield and took advantage of the work they put in.
The weather has done far more than the Russians to affect the shaping of the battlefield in the last few weeks.
And once the ground freezes that will change back into Ukraine’s favor. Then the addition of GLSDB by the thousands with their 150km range will allow the Ukrainians to extend to nearly the entire south of their country the same strategy that caused the Russians to retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson.
No Russian will be safe from the entire south of Kherson all the way east past Mariupol.
All the Russians will have left is their Hezbollah-on-Steroids strategy of terrorizing Ukrainian civilians because their missiles arent accurate enough, nor do they have enough of them, to shape an actual battlefield. They will also have their human wave strategy that has lead to the deaths of so many thousands of Russians in the meat grinder killing fields of Bakhmut, where the Russians have made precisely zero progress in months.
But Tsar Putin seems content to send his serfs to die by the thousands per week…all while losing more ground.
Fine by me. I’m happy to see Russia’s Imperialist fantasies ground down so they dont have the capacity to commit such unprovoked naked aggression against anyone else for a very long time.
Have a liberating day.
Jim
December 28, 2022 at 6:00 pm
Gary, you keep trying to convince readers Russia has lost.
The same message you’ve been making all along.
Okay, but you’ve tried too hard, if Ukraine has been winning all along… you wouldn’t have to be doing back flips now.
Victory would be self evident.
The conclusion undeniable.
That’s not where we’re @ right now.
Never has been.
So, I say, “we’ll see,” and Bakhmut churns on, more death & damage inflicted on both sides, Ukrainian cities reduced to rubble… a horrifying picture.
Now, it’s been some time that I’ve pitch it to, “Trial by Battle”… because I don’t have a crystal ball.
And, frankly, this war has strung out longer than almost anybody anticipated… a reminder that chance, risk & uncertainty in war… can lead it… not knows where… nobody knew where World War One would go.
(At this point, I’d say, the Russians are getting ready to make their move, whatever it turns out to be.)
But if everything you’ve said on this blog had come true… the war would have been over long ago.
(With Zelensky up on a podium in Maidan Square speaking out to a jubilant crowd…victory in the air, dancing with electricity, with shouts & roars of celebration rising above the throng… a triumphalism not seen since the Golden Days of Rome…)
It isn’t.
(He hasn’t).
I don’t know what’s going to happen, neither do you… protests to the contrary not withstanding.
What I hope happens is we avoid a General European War.
For the good of humanity.
Arash
December 28, 2022 at 6:39 pm
People in the US have no slightest idea of how corrupt Ukraine is. I give you a few examples here:
-Iran had no cruise missiles until it illicitly got a few KH-55 Soviet era cruise missiles from Ukraine in the 90s. And not just any cruise missiles. These were the main, strategic, nuke capable Soviet cruise missiles. Iran then reverse engineered them into Soumar and Hoveizeh cruise missiles. China got a few from Ukraine too.
-North Korea had no ICBM until in 2016 it got its hands on the powerful soviet era RD250 engine from a Ukrainian factory. This engine is on the first stage of Hwasong-14 which became North Korea first ICBM in 2017. Hwasong-15 and the giant Hwasong-17 (recently tested with Kim and his daughter attending the launch) use the same engine (different variants, some are double chamber and so on, don’t want to get into the details here)
-and last but not least, the miniaturized nuclear warhead design that Iran finalized before 2003, which is still pretty much ready to go whenever Iran decides to make nukes, was designed with the help of at least one Ukrainian, former soviet, nuclear weapon designer that lived and worked in Iran for several years.
Al of these western weapons have already made it to Iran. Just look up to see how quickly Iran has reverse engineered and operationalized the switchblade drones given to Ukraine as just one example.
Goran
December 28, 2022 at 6:41 pm
Jim: “I don’t know what’s going to happen, neither do you…”
Nobody does, but people can make a prediction, Gary thinks Ukrainians will head toward Melitopol, I think they’ll take it by the end of summer, can you make a prediction framed by time and geography, or will you continue with current approach so similar to olden talk of wunderwaffe.
Gary Jacobs
December 28, 2022 at 6:59 pm
Jim,
LoL…clearly you arent paying attention, and you are cherry picking to fit your faux notion of smarts.
The Ukrainians are methodically defeating the Russians step by step…with what they have at their disposal.
If you were actually paying attention to what I have said, I have clearly stated that The defeat of the Russians would go a lot faster if Ukraine was provided with ATACMs, more HIMARS faster, and more/better tanks. Some of those things have yet to materialize. Patience is a virtue. But it is likely Ukraine will never get ATACMs. GLSDB is a fine plan B. There are thousands more of them anyway.
In Kherson, I was off by about 3 weeks from my prediction on Russia’s defeat. You and Davis here were predicting complete failure for Ukraine. How’d that work out for you?
As well, the weather has clearly turned out to go against usual patterns this year with the mud coming early and the freeze coming late.
When all is said and done, I will put my record of accuracy in the overall trend of Russia losing up against your epic failure rate any day of the week. You have wrong about basically everything you posted.
I have been off by a few weeks in Kherson, and a few more near Kreminna+Svatove…the latter largely due to the weather. That appears to be changing as I type. The Ukrainians are about 1-2km outside Kreminna. And they have physical control of a key section of the P66.
Like your posts, the Russian losing streak is set to continue…and it will speed up again with the colder weather. if it takes a little longer than I predicted to get the desired end result. Fine.
As for the Russians turning Ukrainian cities to rubble… perhaps you should turn your energy to the Putinista trolls that are supporting that terrorist strategy. Much like the Brits during the Nazi blitz of London during WWII, the Ukrainians are not about to surrender to Russian tyranny. A bit of short term pain now is a fair price to pay for the long term defeat of the Russian army.
Have a liberating day.
Kelvin Clarke
December 28, 2022 at 7:21 pm
Daniel Davis’ initial premise in the article’s title is that it needs to be explained why $100bn is being budgeted for aid to Ukraine. Rather than address the question implied in the title, he then asserts that Congress needs to explain how US interests are served by the money, what the support is to be used for, and whether the money will be spent well. All are important topics: they are all different topics, however.
He then wanders off into a series of disparate topics: the headline shopping lists of Zelensky and Zaluzhny as being proof that Ukraine is being inadequately armed for their purposes, and the pointlessness of providing only a single Patriot missile system in a war theatre as large as Ukraine. This is described as “telling”. And the White House commended for having avoidance of direct conflict and particularly nuclear war as its primary strategic goal.
Davis heads back to his original premise by suggesting that $100bn in a single year for Ukraine is a lot of money when it is what Russia spends every year (a perfect illustration as to why it not really a lot of money). He then equates the situation in Ukraine with Afghanistan where 20 times as much money was spent in 20 years supporting vast numbers of American (and Allied) troops in action against a committed local insurgency.
Here is the answer to the question in the title:
One hundred billion dollars has been allocated so that a large nation, Ukraine, which is politically democratic and oriented to the western alliance has the military strength to conduct a defensive war of national survival against a neighbour, Russia, which attacked it with the goal of obliterating its existence (as a nation and culture, by inflicting unspeakable levels brutality). In its existential battle for survival, Ukraine has achieved months of strategic battlefield initiative, inflicting increasingly intolerable damage on the Russians, despite seemingly incalculable odds. While victory by Ukraine would throw Russia into domestic turmoil, defeat for Ukraine would result in a humanitarian catastrophe, and belligerence by Russia that would cast Europe back into the Cold War. America would face two aggressive pier adversaries and the world would lament the day we sold out our Allies.
The Al U Know
December 28, 2022 at 8:34 pm
@Goran
Melitopol perhaps. Mariupol or Crimea if things go to Ukraine’s plan. I would say in 2-3 years Crimea or near to all original territory.
Gonna depend on a few things.
Whether those 300K reservists are just meat for attrition. Or if Russia bucks its historic inadaptability under Sorovikin.
General Sorovikin seems like a harsh brute with a preference of Shahed-136 and looks like he is accepting traditional line-rushing at Bakhmut. Also Wagner Group and Ramzan Kadymirov seem to be pulling more strings as of late, and these groups are demanding a more hard-line approach(this was A.Motyl or J.Buckby’s thought).
Depends also if the military is putting the aid it gets to good use. Both sides are arty heavy, but HIMARS seems to help. I am skeptical of what 20 can do, more impressed with the drone and app usage to spot for conventional forces. As for HIMARS, that $100B going to Ukraine only includes ammo, not systems.
Russia in response has put forward the Tornado-S, their own MRLS, and today started receiving more Su-57s. Russian-sympathetic Twitter is showing T-72 heading to the front.
Also about the recent $47B approved by the US government, nearly 2/3rds are simply going to pay for daily salaries and what financing utilities borrowed up till now. No F-16s, the West said no tanks, but Finland politicians are now talking about sending Leopard 2s.
That depends on how much the West assumes the role of Arsenal of Democracy again. Here in Canada, like other countries, interest and inflation remains high and the prospects of recession are likely. The governments have been printing money on and off since the 2010 downturn. Now they are asking for war bonds contributions that promise to double when, when, the war is over.
Come back to me on this one but I do not want Russia to remain sanctioned until it becomes more decrepit than North Korea. I am a bit of a George Friedman fan so I do want this Second Cold War to end in the fragmentation of the Russian Federation. Would be interesting times. The US still has 200 years of superpower left in whatever form it takes. All those formerly Russian resources would be available for the that next stage where we are planning to get back onto the moon and Mars. And if China or India, or even an emergent competitor like Japan continues to compete then the militarization of space is very likely. In 30-40 years we might see Rods From God satellites and moonbases.
David Chang
December 28, 2022 at 9:08 pm
God bless people in the world.
Ukraine Socialism Warfare interfere U.S. military’s defense plan in Korea, so we should remember the history of 20th century, Dixie Mission.
Because Zelenskyy is a Democratic Party agent in Europe, and Democratic Party is a Ukraine agent in America, the duty of Republican Party is to have audits of aid to Ukraine, not like the wrong of Republican senator in Afghan socialism warfare.
God bless America.
Luis Espinal
December 28, 2022 at 9:10 pm
Mr. Davis is hard at earning his rubles.
Serhio
December 28, 2022 at 10:08 pm
“Nobody does, but people can make a prediction, Gary thinks Ukrainians will head toward Melitopol, I think they’ll take it by the end of summer, can you make a prediction framed by time and geography, or will you continue with current approach so similar to olden talk of wunderwaffe.”
My prediction: if a peace treaty is not concluded and hostilities continue, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will be liberated from the Nazis in the summer. Perhaps Zelensky will be overthrown or killed and Zaluzhny will take his place.
Jim
December 28, 2022 at 10:57 pm
Russia will keep working Bakhmut as long as Ukraine keeps sending reinforcements… to be finished within a about a month or so… allowing transition time, then an offensive to clear Donbas and encircle significant numbers of Ukrainian soldiers.
Russia breaks organized resistance in the Donbas around the end of March… early April… then by the middle of May organized resistance collapses East of the Dnieper river.
Duke
December 28, 2022 at 11:06 pm
Degrading the military of a US adversary without wasting one America life is worth all the material and financial support we can give.
Now that we know what Russia wants and what it stands for, it must be clear that its aggression will not stop at the NATO borders. On the contrary, just as it was encouraged by the Obama administration flaccid response, if we – the Western democracies – do not step up to the task of putting Russia back into place it will set its sights on other non-NATO nations first and then push into NATO territory, maybe in the Baltics or in Romania or Bulgaria, to secure defensible territory.
At that point we will have no choice but to respond in force, but we will do it from a position of weakness.
The myth of a redeemable Russia has been dealt the first blow in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. It has now been completely shattered and Russia must be treated like the terrorist state it is: destroyed like Carthage.
DOUGLAS
December 29, 2022 at 12:47 am
Russia and NATO were on a collision course
Americans, Europeans, Canadians would be dying
the cost would be ten fold what it is today
Ukrainians, while striving to be a democratic state, are dying for all of us
they should be given everything they need, including long range himars, aircraft, drones and cutting edge air defense systems
Johnny Ray
December 29, 2022 at 1:58 am
A classic miscalculation on Russia’s part begs to be exploited. $100B, or twice that, is a cheap price to cripple Russian military, economic and political power.
Simon Beerstecher
December 29, 2022 at 8:15 am
Realistically the end game will be an armistice , much like Northern Korea.A suspended war.An intractable problem in the heart of both Europe and Russia ,resulting in a return to the cold war,with a European and American military occupying force in The “European half” .Probably a seperate legal entity to NATO but using NATO forces.Russia will militarily occupy the bits it has so far conquered.Ukraine nor the west or UN should legitimise these conquered territories,Russia should remain sanctioned until such a time that it is willing to return Ukraine to its pre 2014 borders or Ukraine is willing to perhaps negotiate a partial return of Crimea,Kherson,Zaporizhia.Perhaps Sevastopol should be leased by Russia for 100 years?The only way to properly freeze this conflict is to put “non combatent” defensive only boots on the ground in Western Ukraine ,East of the Dnieper.Leave Ukraine to occupy,defend and station their army east of the Dnieper , securing their Eastern territories.That should focus Russian minds.
Gary Jacobs
December 29, 2022 at 10:27 am
Jim,
Ha. That’s the funniest bunch of Kremlin talking points I’ve heard in awhile. It’s actually the Ukrainians that are content to allow the Russians to send their cannon fodder into the Bakhmut Meat Grinder.
The idea that the Russians have any chance of taking that area shows just how little you understand what is going on in that area…or in Ukraine at all.
As I have said repeatedly [especially on Davis articles]: after Ukraine conducted a controlled fighting retreat from Lysychansk, they used the high ground to the west to establish better defensive positions, kill A LOT of Russians from that higher ground, and then stopped the Russians cold at Bakhmut and Soledar.
The Russians have been trying to move west from there for 6 months with zero success. There have been minor back and forth of a couple hundred yards here and there. Zero net gain for Russia. The idea you think that is somehow going to change to the Russians benefit now is absurd.
But you are nothing if not consistent with your losing streak.
In the 6 months since the Russians got stopped in this area, the Ukrainians have built up a much better equipped and trained force that has defeated Russian in Northwest Kherson and Kharkiv… and they are now shaping the battlefield in the entire south and still more of the east.
More Russian losses coming to the unprovoked Russian Imperialist invasion near you.
Have a liberating day.
Gary Jacobs
December 29, 2022 at 10:44 am
Serhio,
LoL, you referring to Ukraine as Nazis is one of the silliest projections of your own side’s tendency toward atrocities I have seen.
Russia’s missile terror campaign against Ukrainian civilians is quite like the Nazi Blitz of London in WWII.
Russia’s kidnapping, rape and torture campaign against Ukrainian civilians is quite like the Nazis from start to finish. But then again that’s been Standard Operating Procedure for Imperial Russia for centuries.
And Putin is well known to support every right wing loon from Orban in Hungary, to Le Pen in France, and they have their own far right militia fighting in Ukraine from the Russian Imperial Legion.
As well, like Jim and the Russian military…your losing streak will continue…and the Russians will never come close to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
Svatove and Kreminna will be freed from Russian tyranny sometime in the nex 2-6 weeks. Depending on the weather, and how many Russian soldiers are killed by other Russian soldiers for attempting to retreat from the lost cause that is Kreminna.
If the Ukrainians get the GLSDB by mid January and spend 3-4 weeks decimating Russian logistics throughout the south of Ukraine…and if the weather stays cold into late Feb and Early March… you will see a series of rapid Russian losses throughout the south and east of Ukraine before the mud comes again.
If the weather doesnt stay cold, and/or the GLSDB takes a bit longer to arrive… the Ukrainians may be content to conduct their missile campaign until the mud dries again in late spring / early summer. There may be some maneuvering and advances in certain areas of the north/east. But the south to Tokmak and Melitopol is a lot of open fields. They need the right conditions so they are not confined to the roads.
Either way it’s only a matter of time for the Russians losing streak to continue.
Have a liberating day.
Jim
December 29, 2022 at 11:37 am
Gary, things just haven’t happened the way you’ve claimed… some individual data points or claims, sure, but not enough for me to rely on the veracity of your comments.
Your objectivity is questionable because you are so involved, as a supporter, in the outcome of the Ukraine Project.
You’re committed… going across country to lobby and what not, eight times over the years to promote what you wanted to happen with Russia vis-a-vis U. S. policy… starting years ago… likely with the Magnitsky Act… or even before… I don’t know.
Too many times, you’ve been wrong for me to put much weight in your analysis… sometimes it’s interesting… what you’re willing to say… that hurts your credibility.
But reality moves forward over time and that is what I’m most interested in: good or bad. How I’d like it or not… it doesn’t go with my analysis from time to time… but mostly it does because most of my comments are not predictions, but, rather, reflections from reports from the field.
I don’t put much stock in corporate, main stream media… that’s probably why my comments come closer to reality.
Roger J. Buffington
December 29, 2022 at 12:30 pm
Wrong. The American people are quite aware of why it is absolutely vital that America support Ukraine. It is only a few Isolationist boobs who question the wisdom of supporting Democracy in a European country that desperately wants to be free and to be a part of the Western community of nations. This kind of Isolationist claptrap was discredited on December 7, 1941 and it has been a fundamental component of US policy ever since to ensure that Europe and the Western Pacific are free from totalitarian domination. Ukraine is ripping the guts out of the Russian war machine to the infinite benefit of all mankind.
Brian Foley
December 29, 2022 at 12:45 pm
There are just too many “angles” to America’s involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine to discuss adequately in a forum like this. It is safe to say the Congress can pretty much do whatever the hell it wants as long as it has the votes to over ride a veto. Biden isn’t going to veto this bill (his exact words were “What’s the problem, I already voted”). So regardless of Mr. Davis’ opinion, it’ll move forward. Is it a good thing or a bad thing ? I could make a reasonable argument for either opinion, but no matter what I think…Congress can (and will) do whatever the hell they please.
Gary Jacobs
December 29, 2022 at 3:56 pm
Jim,
LoL… you nakedly claim I have been wrong so many times… and then proceed to cite precisely zero accurate specific examples.
And even when you do try to cite an example about me with lobbying, you get it completely wrong. No surprise there.
If you would like the correct answer for my lobbying, that has been with AIPAC the non-partisan, pro-Israel lobbying group that works to strengthen the US-Israel relationship..and as well as act as a counterweight to the Arab countries lobby, oil company lobby, the defense industry lobby, and the State Department which have all been on the Arabist side of the lobbying aisle for decades.
The first three outspend the entire Jewish community in the US by at least 20-1, so I know exactly what it means to rely on a shared values argument, and a strategic interest argument…both of which that can be easily validated. Israel and Ukraine have both of those things on their side…no matter how much you want to pretend that isnt the case.
All you have in your debating arsenal to misuse the term neocon, then use it as a pejorative to bully people who dont know any better and might be cowed by your faux notion of smarts. That BS has zero effect on me.
Even when you get a sliver of something correct, such as mentions by Ukrainians of Stepan Bandera…you still dont come close to grasping the full context of any of it.
Of course Bandera was sentenced to death for his involvement in the 1934 assassination of Poland’s Minister of the Interior Bronisław Pieracki, commuted to life imprisonment.
Freed from prison in 1939 following the Nazi invasion of Poland, Bandera prepared the 1941 Proclamation of Ukrainian statehood in Lviv, pledging to work with Germany after Germany invaded the Soviet Union in June 1941. The Germans disapproved of the proclamation and for his refusal to rescind the decree, Bandera was arrested by the Gestapo. Germany was never going to allow Ukraine to be a free state.
Others also mention another Ukrainian Nazi collaborator Roman Shukhevych. He absolutely butchered Jews and Poles.
And who now is the biggest supporter of Ukraine among its neighbors? Poland. So Ukraine currently has a Jewish president who lost family in the Holocaust and was elected with %73 of the vote and Ukraine is getting major support from Poland…all proof of putting its Nazi collaborator past behind it…but people like you and the rest of the Putinista Trolls who refer to Ukrainians as Nazis want to pretend all of you know more about how relevant that history is to current events than Poles and Jews of the area. That’s Hubris of the highest order.
The extra tragic irony is of course the Von Ribbentrop Pact. That is Russia making a deal with the actual Nazis to carve up eastern Europe between them. They coordinated their invasions and annexed/invaded large parts of Ukraine, Poland, and more. Stalin’s Russia in complete coordination with Nazi Germany.
Only Operation Barbarossa, Hitler’s lunacy invading Russia just before winter, broke that deal.
Putin’s Russia has also supported every right wing loon from Le Pen in France, Orban in Hungary, and has its own neo-nazi militia fighting in Ukraine from the Russian Imperial Legion.
Take all that as yet another microcosm of just how little context you actually know or apply to the reality on the ground.
You can put together the entire collective knowledge of every person who posts on this forum, including the actual authors, and I would still likely know more about every aspect of the Holocaust and Russia’s Imperialist history than you.
Oh ya, as for the Magnitsky Act. Based on your posts, I assume you just got the Kremlin’s talking points on the whole thing and bought them hook line and sinker. Unfortunately I did not have anything to do with the actual lobbying for it, but that would have been an honor and a privilege. Russia is a corrupt mafia state, and they should be treated accordingly. If you ever want to filter in some legit source material rather than just the Kremlin’s talking points You should actually read Red Notice, and Freezing Order, by Bill Browder, to learn the full backstory.
Have a liberating day
froike
December 29, 2022 at 6:05 pm
Gary Jacobs should be writing articles for 1945! Mr Davis should be writing for Pravda
Well done Gary!!!! Brilliant and on The Money, as always!
Serhio
December 29, 2022 at 11:51 pm
In Ukraine, things are becoming commonplace that cannot be recognized as normal in any country that claims to be civilized. It can take a long time to list, but I will limit myself to just a few examples.
In Lviv (the center of Ukrainian nationalism), dishes with openly Russophobic names are openly served. And this does not cause the slightest protest in society.
Smoked chicken wings “House of Trade Unions”. It was in the building of the “House of Trade Unions” in 2014 that the Ukrainian Nazis burned alive almost 50 Russian people who came out for a peaceful demonstration against the illegal coup.
Cocktails “Gorlovskaya Madonna” and “Alley of Angels”.
If anyone does not know, the story of the “Gorlovka Madonna” happened 8 years ago. During the shelling of Gorlovka by Ukrainian artillery, a young mother, Kristina Zhuk, and her 10-month-old daughter, Kira, were killed. Kristina, bleeding, dying, suffering superhuman suffering, lay clutching to herself in a last effort the most precious thing she has – her daughter. Like Mary of the baby Jesus. Photos of the dead Kristina and Kira flew around the whole world then.
“Alley of Angels” is a memorial complex in Donetsk in memory of children who died during the war in Donbass since 2014. It is very noteworthy that the article about the “Alley of Angels” was removed from the English version of Wikipedia so that as few people as possible could learn about the crimes of the Ukrainian Nazis.
Mockery of the dead is already an indicator of moral decline. But after all, in this case, these drinks are offered to DRINK! And many, for sure, do so! This is already a clear manifestation of symbolic cannibalism, that is, psychopathology, equated with necrophilia. Although for modern Western society, it seems that this will soon become the norm.
Gary Jacobs
December 30, 2022 at 10:21 am
Serhio,
LoL, You pretending what happened in 2014 was an ‘illegal coup’ is yet another Putnista propaganda inversion of reality.
Back here on Earth, what happened in 2014 was the 2nd time in the 21st century that Russia and pro-Russia elements in Ukraine tried their own coup against free Ukraine.
And the 2nd time masses of people came out to protest Russia’s imperialist interference in Ukraine’s politics.
In 2004 Russia and your lackeys rigged the election and poisoned a presidential candidate.
In 2014 Russia strong armed the govt. of Ukraine into discarding 3 years of negotiations with the EU to sign a silly deal with Russia. As if any objective person who can do basic math would ever think Russia’s $1 Trillion economy from it’s mafia state would somehow be better than joining the EU with its $15 Trillion economy, not to mention having access to the EUs trade relations with the US and our $20+ Trillion economy.
And then of course there are the centuries of Russian Imperialist oppression against Ukraine and all its neighbors.
You can go on living in your fantasy world pretending everything in the world is someone else’s fault…and then continue your losing streak as country after country abandons Russia to the point where your only allies are the terrorist state of Iran, and the hermit kingdom of N. Korea. Oh wait, that’s exactly where you are right now.
OR, you can do some objective reflection, stop acting like terrorist bullies to all your neighbors, and join the 21st century in a more peaceful outlook towards the world.
In the meantime, 50+ countries will continue supporting Ukraine against you…and thousands of Russian Serfs will die by fiat of the Tsar’s Imperialist Fantasies every week. All while continuing to lose territory in Ukraine.
Have a liberating day.
Jim
December 30, 2022 at 11:54 am
Gary, you wanted an example of your statements that was false.
Nobody, but Gary Jacobs, claims the Russians supported the 2014 coup, you ignore the famous “‘F’ the EU audio tape of Victoria Nuland and all the other evidence of U. S. support for the coup.
(And make up out of whole cloth indicators of Russian involvement… that have no basis in reality.)
Gary, can you cite any reputable source that seconds your claim?
Your claims regarding Bakhmut stand alone much like your claims regarding 2014… It’s clear to me Russia has to “take cities & territories” as I’ve stated numerous times, so cheerleaders like you can’t claim otherwise, period… even corporate MSM allows Ukraine is suffering large losses in Bakhmut… and repeating the “meat grinder” line regarding Ukrainian losses.
Attrition alone is not good enough… taking territory & cities after the Ukraine Army is hollowed out is necessary to hammer home to you and your ilk… that your hopes have turned to political ashes.
Because for cheerleaders like you… anything goes… up is down… black is white.
Oh, I assume you can walk and chew gum at the same time… I read you comments regarding your trips to Washington… and the Magnitsky Act… you didn’t mention anything else… although I’m sure you can do various activities while in the Washington area.
I’ve made my prediction… no surprise you disagree.
Should my prediction come to fruition… there will be no denying the result… the Russian victory will be self-evident… even you won’t be able to spin it.
And your credibility will be ashes… but much more important is the credibility of corporate main steam media… that’s where the rubber meets the road… and you know it.
All your efforts (substantial) have been designed to keep up the political support for the Ukraine Project.
What will you do… and where will your credibility be after the Ukraine Army collapses?
You say it can’t happen… won’t happen… as I’ve said before, “We’ll see.”
Paul
December 30, 2022 at 2:28 pm
Jim:
You seem pretty confident that the Russian army is about to win the war. I assume you are basing this on some credible sources. Would you care to share them with us?
From what I read the Ukrainians have the upper hand but if you have som quality info that paints a different picture I would like to know.
Michael Nunez
January 5, 2023 at 12:02 pm
The ” Beggars are out in force ” 100 Billion from people that work for their own families, and Ukraine wants more ? BS . No Way ! Since 1994 Ukrainians Knew Russia would do this , but they sat on their hands and today Cry , Cry and Cry for others to bail them out ..!