Sinema May Not Be Able to Win in Arizona – and could be beaten by Kari Lake – When Democratic Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced in early December that she was changing her party affiliation to become an independent and that she intends to run again in 2024, it immediately presented the Democrats with a problem.
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Running a candidate against Sinema would split the vote, but allowing Sinema to run unopposed could give her more power and cause more headaches for Democrats trying to pass legislation in a divided Senate.
A new poll, however, suggests that after years of media and Democratic outrage over Sinema’s refusal to blindly pass legislation advancing President Joe Biden’s agenda has worked.
The poll, conducted on behalf of Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is considering challenging Sinema, found that Sinema is nowhere near popular enough to succeed as an independent candidate in the 2024 Arizona Senate race.
What The Poll Says
While it’s early, the poll is an interesting indication that Sinema could be defeated – allowing the Democrats to install a lawmaker more committed to helping Democrats carry out their post-Trump, “Build Back Better” agenda.
In a press release from the Ruben Gallego campaign, the results of a Public Policy Polling are described as a sign that “Ruben Gallego is considerably more popular in the state than Kyrsten Sinema.”
A memo from Public Policy Polling, quoted in the press release, claims that Gallego would be a “top-tier Senate candidate regardless of what she decides to do in 2024.”
In a statement, Gallego suggested that Sinema’s unpopularity is a result of her having “consistently voted with Wall Street bankers and big drug companies.”
“Sinema’s values are not Arizona’s values. Writing a different letter after her name isn’t going to change that,” Gallego said.
Specifically, the poll found that in a three-way race, Gallego would effectively tie with the Republicans, and Sinema’s support would place her third.
Could Sinema Help Kari Lake Win?
While the poll is a good sign for the Democrats, it could be even better for the Republicans. According to the survey, if Sinema goes for the seat as an independent along with failed Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, Gallego would still come second.
The survey found that Gallego would take 40% support from voters, while Kari Lake would win 41%, and Sinema would take 13%.
The poll, along with Gallego’s statement, is clearly an effort to encourage the Democratic Party to back him in a race to win Sinema’s Senate seat, but there are still some big questions for the Democratic Party here that remain unanswered.
First, the Democrats must consider whether the risk of losing to Kari Lake is worth taking on Sinema. Running against the incumbent senator will split the vote significantly, and could allow Lake to win the seat by a narrow margin.
That being said, it’s still unclear what the race would even look like between Lake and Gallego without Sinema in the race.
Some of Sinema’s backers could be Republicans, turned off by Lake’s emphatic support for former President Donald Trump amid a host of new scandals.
Those voters may hold their noses and vote Republican without Sinema in the race – and for that reason alone, a three-way race may make the election more competitive for the Democrats.
This early, it’s tough to know – but the Democrats will be watching, and challenging Sinema is certainly not off the cards.
Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
