The new year hasn’t begun on the right foot for the Russian military in Ukraine.
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The Ukrainian forces inflicted a heavy blow in the east after a missile strike killed scores of Russian troops while the assault against the town of Bakhmut is failing.
On day 314 of the war, the Russian military isn’t any closer to achieving its objectives in Ukraine as it was more than ten months ago when the invasion began.
Wagner Group and the Fight for Bakhmut
Despite trying to capture the town for more than six months, the Russian forces have failed to achieve anything significant.
The infamous private military company Wagner Group has been leading the effort against Bakhmut.
The Russians intensified their efforts to capture the town in mid-December, but poor coordination and support and the fierce Ukrainian resistance made sure that the attacks ended up in failure.
According to the latest estimate of the British Military Intelligence, the Ukrainian military “ has committed significant reinforcements to defend” Bakhmut and Avdiivka, resulting in a decrease in Russian assaults.
However, in the process, both militaries have suffered heavy casualties.
“Russian offensive operations in the area are now likely being conducted at only platoon or section level. It is unlikely Russia will achieve a significant breakthrough near Bakhmut in the coming weeks,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.
The failure to capture Bakhmut is a heavy political blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, especially Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Fighting in the East
In the east, there is fierce fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces for control of the P66 highway, which runs north of the town of Kreminna. Since their surprise lightning counteroffensive in September, the Ukrainian forces have been trying to reach Kreminna and Svatove, a key logistical hub that lies further to the east.
The heavy rains and resulting mud seriously restricted the Ukrainian counteroffensive and gave time to the Russian forces to dig in and prepare defensive lines. As a result, the fighting is much less mobile than the Ukrainian military would have liked, as the conditions favor the defender.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
Meanwhile, the Russian forces are suffering extremely heavy casualties. In the three days of the new year, for example, the Russian forces have suffered an average of 750 men killed every day, according to official Ukrainian estimates.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Tuesday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 108,190 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number), destroyed 283 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 270 attack and transport helicopters, 3,036 tanks, 2,033 artillery pieces, 6,100 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 424 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 16 boats and cutters, 4,735 vehicles and fuel tanks, 214 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,839 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 181 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 723 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate.
