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Bakhmut: The Ukraine Battle That Breaks the Russian Army?

The situation in and around Bakhmut remains precarious for the Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are on the offensive, and there is heavy fighting for every city block.

However, the Russian military has primarily stopped other large-scale offensive operations across the battlefield as it is running low on men and ammunition.

On day 387 of the conflict, the conflict in Ukraine continues with no end in sight.

The Russian Casualties

But the advances of the Russian forces have come at a great cost. It increasingly looks like that the private military company Wagner Group will have a small role in the conflict going forward after the heavy casualties it is suffering in the battle. However, that could change if the Kremlin gives Wagner Group the green light to recruit from prisons again.

Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Friday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 163,320 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number), destroyed 305 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 290 attack and transport helicopters, 3,506 tanks, 2,552 artillery pieces, 6,823 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 504 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,401 vehicles and fuel tanks, 265 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,145 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 258 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 907 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses. 

The Battle of Bakhmut and the Overall Battlefield

The fighting in and around the town of Bakhmut continues. The Wagner Group mercenary groups, supported by the Russian military, are attacking from three directions.

After a Russian offensive that captured the eastern part of the town, the Ukrainian defenses stabilized the situation at the Bakhmutka River, a waterway that divides Bakhmut.

However, the Russian forces have pushed and established small footholds west of the Bakhmutka River. The river is located in the center of the town. 

The Ukrainian forces still seem committed to the defense of Bakhmut. But to waste the garrison there would be folly for Kyiv. Another Mariupol isn’t necessary 13 months into the war. What Ukraine needs now is experienced troops that can be replenished by eager volunteers.

When it comes to the overall battlefield, the Russian forces have largely stopped with large-scale offensives.

Indeed, it seems that the Russian military is running low on men and ammunition and that it can only support one major offensive at a time.

“This is most likely because Russian forces have temporarily depleted the deployed formations’ combat power to such an extent that even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.

“Russian leaders will likely seek to regenerate the offensive potential of the force once personnel and munition stocks are replenished. In the meantime, commanders will likely be forced to choose between carrying out offensive operations and conducting a credible defence of the full line,” the British Military Intelligence added.

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Fred Leander

    March 19, 2023 at 2:40 pm

    Another constellation of wishful thinking by mr. Stavros Atlamazoglou, mainly based on Ukrainian and Brtitish propaganda. One of the most popular being the constant drivel around antagonism between the Wagner Group leadership and the Russian military establishment, and the blown-up Russian loss figures. The West is not served well with such uncritical reporting but it is probably necessary to keep the Russophobia up and the impression that the billions of dollars poured into Ukraine is not in vain.

    BTW, has anyone noted that mr. Putin recently extended two weeks leave to soldiers who participated in the first stages of his “Special Operation”? This does not correspond well with the allegations aired here of “depleted” man-power in the Russian Army.

    And, as allegedly assessed by British Military Intelligence “….even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable..”, – does not correspond well with recent development north of the areas of Bakhmut, Toretsk, Avdivka and Vuhledar. Russian forces are advancing in all these areas. Their advance may not move fast but it is quite perceptible on ISW’s inter-active map, a web-site which otherwise is a typical US propaganda tool. Their map, however, I can recommend.

    North of Bakhmut the Wagner Group is well on their way towards Krematorsk while Russian pincers are approaching the main supply arteries north of Toretsk and Avdivka. Vuhledar has been markedly bypassed on its western side. The Russians seem to have changed strategies – rather to let the enemy rot at his roots in his various village strongholds, instead bypassing him.

    As I have implied here before, the Russians may even be interested in keeping the fight for Bakhmut “hot” thereby creating a diversion, as well as a graveyard for Ukrainian forces, at the same time tying up enemy reinforcements while his flanks are being turned. Not an unfamiliar strategy.

  2. Fred Leander

    March 19, 2023 at 3:36 pm

    Another constellation of wishful thinking by mr. Stavros Atlamazoglou, mainly based on Ukrainian and British propaganda. One of the most popular being the constant drivel around antagonism between the Wagner Group leadership and the Russian military establishment, and the blown-up Russian loss figures. The West is not served well with such uncritical reporting but it is probably necessary to keep the Russophobia up and the impression that the billions of dollars poured into Ukraine is not in vain.

    BTW, has anyone noted that mr. Putin recently extended two weeks leave to soldiers who participated in the first stages of his “Special Operation”? This does not correspond well with the allegations aired here of “depleted” man-power in the Russian Army.

    And, as allegedly assessed by British Military Intelligence “….even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable..”, – does not correspond well with recent development north of the areas of Bakhmut, Toretsk, Avdivka and Vuhledar. Russian forces are advancing in all these areas. Their advance may not move fast but it is quite perceptible on ISW’s inter-active map, a web-site which otherwise is a typical US propaganda tool. Their map, however, I can recommend.

    North of Bakhmut the Wagner Group is well on their way towards Krematorsk while Russian pincers are approaching the main supply arteries north of Toretsk and Avdivka. Vuhledar has been markedly bypassed on its western side. The Russians seem to have changed strategies – rather to let the enemy rot at his roots in his various village strongholds, instead bypassing him.

    As I have implied here before, the Russians may even be interested in keeping the fight for Bakhmut “hot” thereby creating a diversion, as well as a graveyard for Ukrainian forces, at the same time tying up enemy reinforcements while his flanks are being turned. Not an unfamiliar strategy.

  3. critic

    March 20, 2023 at 4:21 am

    The author’s sources are extremely suspicious, the one-sided presentation of losses hints at sponsorship by the losers. Take a look at the data of uninterested sources, at least the data on the losses of the parties from the Israeli intelligence MOSSAD … but wait … the picture is not at all rosy and raises questions about whether the people who are entrusted with power are doing the right thing. Or is it just their fear that drives them to arm anyone and anywhere, as long as this someone plays by the “rules” now. Open your eyes and please don’t forget the lessons of history: Bin Laden also played by the rules of British intelligence at first.

  4. Fred Leander

    March 21, 2023 at 7:02 am

    ISW (I recommend their map but otherwise advise caution as to their sources on Russian losses and intentions). Today they go back on their recent allegations about a crumbling Russian offensive and instead (reluctantly) admits further Russian successes around Bakhmut and Avdivka, the railway line from north-west into Avdivka has been cut, and the Russians are well on their way towards Berdychi and Semenivka, potentially cutting the main road from north-west into Avdivka, as well.

    Avdivka, because of the much larger area now being surrounded, can become a worse loss for the Ukrainians than Bakhmut.

    Today, ISW, too, sweeten their previous allegations on the haussed-up conflicts between the Wagner Group and the Russian military leadership.

  5. Steven Bingham

    March 29, 2023 at 3:03 pm

    BS

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