The Russian Army has been throwing thousands of men into battle to seize the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut over the last two months. While these foot soldiers appear to be making limited progress in this offensive effort, each kilometer gained by Moscow equates to roughly 800 lives lost, according to Newsweek.
Despite the Kremlin-originated propaganda that Ukraine is withdrawing troops from the combat zone, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has maintained that his military will continue to hold the city.
Additionally, Ukrainian officials believe that once an influx of Western tanks is procured in the Spring, the Russian offensive in Bakhmut may entirely collapse.
Why is Holding Bakhmut So Important?
The battle for Bakhmut began more than seven months ago and is considered the longest battle of the war so far. Although the Ukrainian city was hardly recognized as a strategic region prior to the onset of Russia’s invasion, it has become the symbol of the country’s determination to maintain its sovereignty.
Before the war began more than one year ago, Bakhmut was home to around 70,000 residents. A salt and gypsum mining area in Ukraine’s industrial heartland known as the Donbas, Bakhmut was really not recognized as a “strategic” city in the war. However, Russia’s ultimate desire is to conquer Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and seizing Bakhmut could be a stepping-stone in that effort.
Additionally, the Kremlin is sorely needing a victory, no matter the significance, to help quell the increasing domestic criticism of its ongoing invasion.
Russia’s Offensive Largely Destroyed the Once-Populous City
Earlier this month, video footage depicting the sheer destruction that has swept through Bakhmut was shared on social media. Recorded by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the footage shows the remnants of homes, residential buildings, and critical infrastructure that once housed and supported tens of thousands of civilians. The destruction, which can be seen for miles in the recording, resembles the aftermath of intense natural disasters.
Senior military adviser within the British delegation to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Ian Stubbs told Ukrinform last week that Russian Forces and their Wagner Group mercenary peers are suffering heavy blows in Donetsk region. “Over the past week, we have seen intensive combat as Russia continues its grinding offensive in the Donbas,” Stubbs added.
“Russia is suffering extremely heavy casualty rates…Since May last year, between 20,000 and 30,000 Wagner and regular Russian forces have been killed and wounded in the area around Bakhmut alone; a huge loss of human life for a total territorial advance of approximately just 25 kilometers [15.5 miles],” Stubbs reported.
Some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) sources believe approximately five Russians are dying for each Ukrainian in Bakhmut. Ukraine’s national security secretary Oleskiy Danilov estimates the ratio is even higher at around seven to one, according to the BBC.
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Could the Eventual Procurement of Western Tanks Aid Ukraine’s Defense in Bakhmut?
Ukraine’s fortitude in holding Bakhmut is symbolic of the country’s defense-at-all-costs strategy, however, the ongoing battle also represents a critical opportunity for Ukraine. In recent months, Ukrainian forces have been able to take out thousands of Russian fighters or mercenaries, which has undoubtedly weakened the Kremlin’s army.
If Ukraine can hold the line until Spring, the influx of Western MBTs will further seal Russia’s fate in the Bakhmut.
Maya Carlin, a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.