The private military company Wagner Group is playing a key role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Seeing this, the Kremlin is setting the conditions to create more mercenary groups.
This is likely an attempt to outsource the burden of the war, thus ensuring a more sustainable long-term campaign.
Russian Private Military Companies
For probably the first time in modern warfare, a nation-state has outsourced a significant component of a vital military campaign to a private military company.
Ever since the summer of 2022, the infamous Wagner Group private military company has assumed an increasingly important role in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Indeed, for months, Wagner Group has spearheaded the fight for the town of Bakhmut in the Donbas, the longest and deadliest battle of the war so far. In many places, the private military company has succeeded, where the Russian military has failed.
Now, the Kremlin is looking to replicate Wagner Group’s “success story” by creating additional private military companies. But Moscow is also looking to replace Wagner Group to protect its own authority.
“Russia is likely seeking to sponsor and develop alternative private military companies (PMCs) to eventually replace the Wagner Group PMC in its significant combat role in Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in a recent estimate of the war.
The move is taking place on the background of a high-profile and very public spat between the Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner Group. As a result, the Russian Ministry of Defense likely wants a private military company that it can exercise more control over.
“Russia likely sees continued utility for PMCs in Ukraine because they are less constrained by the limited pay levels and inefficiency which hamper the effectiveness of the regular army,” the British Military Intelligence stated.
The Kremlin might be looking to replicate the successful experiment of the Wagner Group, but it will have a hard time expediently doing that. Right now, there are no other private military companies within Russia that even come near to the size or combat experience of Wagner Group.
“Russia’s leadership probably believe heavy casualties amongst PMCs will be better tolerated by Russian society compared to regular military losses,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Putin has tried very hard to shelter most of the Russian people from the war, thus safeguarding his power.
Wagner Group Under Attack
Wagner Group and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, have been under attack from within the Russian ranks for some time now.
The private military company’s successes—or at least what resembles success in the failing Russian “special military operation”—on the ground and the strong language Prigozhin has used against his domestic opponents, including the Russian Ministry of Defense have alienated Wagner Group.
A recent assassination of a Russian military blogger and Wagner Group fighter over the weekend in St. Petersburg is likely a message to Prigozhin, whose comments on the aftermath of the attack suggest that he knows he is also under fire.
Expert Biography
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
