Ukraine War Update: The Russian forces are getting ready for the large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive that is getting closer. However, the Kremlin has to deal with a high number of casualties.
On day 440 of the Russian invasion, Ukraine continues to have the strategic initiative.
Russian Force Generation Issues in Ukraine
Here at 19FortyFive, we have repeatedly covered the force generation woes that plague the Russian military for Ukraine. Since the war started going badly for the Russian forces (that is just a couple of days after the invasion on February 24 of last year), the Russian military has had to deal with manpower shortages.
In almost 15 months of combat, the Russian forces have lost between 196,000 and 220,000 troops killed or wounded. That number amounts to about the entire invasion force that launched the “special military operation.” As the war has dragged on, those manpower shortages have become more acute. As a result, the Russian Ministry of Defense is trying different ways to fill the gaps.
Russian military recruiters have been focusing on migrant workers from the Central Asian republics, such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, that were once part of the Soviet Union. These migrants go to Russia in the hopes of finding a better life.
Reports indicate that the Russian military recruiters offer a monthly payment of $4,200 and sign-up bonuses of $2,400 to migrant workers who enlist. In addition, they offer Russian citizenship within six months to a year, as opposed to the usual period of five years.
“The high monthly salary and sign-up bonuses will entice some migrant workers to sign up. These recruits are likely sent to the Ukrainian frontlines where the casualty rate is extremely high,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has set a goal of growing the Russian military by hundreds of thousands of troops in the next few years. And for the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is looking to field a force of 400,000 volunteer troops. By recruiting migrants, the Russian Ministry of Defense is trying to achieve its force generation goals but also prevent the need to draw troops from the Russian population.
“The authorities are almost certainly seeking to delay any new overt mandatory mobilisation for as long as possible to minimise domestic dissent,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Russian Casualties
All the while, the Russian forces continue to take significant losses on the ground, increasing the pressure on recruiters to find more men for the Ukraine war.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Wednesday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 196,310 Russian troops, destroyed 308 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 294 attack and transport helicopters, 3,734 tanks, 3,039 artillery pieces, 7,275 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 555 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,974 vehicles and fuel tanks, 308 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,624 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 389 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 970 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
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A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
