The Russian military continues to face severe logistical issues. The Kremlin recently sacked the man responsible for running logistics for the Russian forces. But the situation is unlikely to change.
On day 432 of the war in Ukraine, the Russian forces are still searching for some concrete victory on the ground.
Ministerial Reshuffles and Russian Logistics
Last week, Kremlin-affiliated media said that the Russian Ministry of Defense sacked Deputy Defense Minister Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, who had been on the job for only eight months.
“Mizintsev’s sacking was not immediately confirmed, but speculation about his future highlights how logistics problems remain at the heart of Russia’s struggling campaign in Ukraine. Russia does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
This lack of ammunition is creating friction within the Russian forces, most notably between the Russian military and the Wagner Group private military company.
The two organizations have been engaged in a bitter rivalry for months now. Although lately there seems to have been a truce of short between the Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner Group, the underlying frictions are still there and will continue to poison their relationship.
An ambitious Ukrainian counteroffensive would look to exploit the existing frictions within the Russian forces to maximize the effectiveness of its attack.
“Russia continues to give the highest priority to mobilising its defence industry, but it is still failing to meet war time demands. While Russia’s political leaders persist in demanding success on the battlefield, Russia’s logistics professionals are stuck in the middle,” the British Military Intelligence added.
The U.S.-led Western sanctions have made the job of the Russian defense and aerospace industry very difficult.
Moreover, despite Kremlin statements about the independent and cutting-edge Russian defense and aerospace sector, Russia’s defense firms rely heavily on Western technology. Russian drones operating today in Ukraine, such as the highly successful Orlan-10 tactical unmanned aerial system, can fly because of Western parts.
Russia’s ballistic and cruise missile arsenal, which has caused so much destruction in Ukraine, is dependent largely on microchips and processors from the West. The sanctions have forced the Russian Ministry of Defense to literally scavenge dishwashers and fridges for microchips to put on weapon systems.
At the end of the day, logistics might not be sexy and get people medals, but it is the driving force behind almost every successful military operation in history. French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte, after all, famously said, “amateurs discuss tactics; professionals discuss logistics.”
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
The Russian forces continue to take casualties in Ukraine but at an increasingly lower rate. The downward trend continues for another day, with about 400 Russian troops killed or wounded over the past 24 hours.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Monday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 191,420 Russian troops
Destroyed equipment includes: 308 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 294 attack and transport helicopters, 3,701 tanks, 2,930 artillery pieces, 7,193 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 544 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,851 vehicles and fuel tanks, 298 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,477 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 360 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 947 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
MORE: World War III – Where Could It Start?
MORE: A U.S.-China War Over Taiwan Would Be Bloody
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
