The Ukrainian military continues to make steady progress in its counteroffensive in the Donbas. Over the past few days, Ukrainian forces have advanced in the direction of Bakhmut.
Russian forces captured Bakhmut only very recently, and losing the town now would deal yet another blow to the credibility of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the prestige of President Vladimir Putin.
Bakhmut All Over Again
The Ukrainian military started attacking the flanks of the ruined town even before the counteroffensive began in early June. So far, Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 1 kilometer around Bakhmut.
“As part of its broader counteroffensive, Ukraine has gained impetus in its assaults around Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. In a multi-brigade operation, Ukrainian forces have made progress on both the northern and southern flanks of the town,” British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
“There has been little evidence that Russia maintains any significant ground forces operational level reserves which could be used to reinforce against the multiple threats it is now facing in widely separated sectors, from Bakhmut to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, over 200km away,” it added.
A Bloody, Temporary Victory
Russian forces finally captured Bakhmut after almost a year of fighting. The now-mutinous Wagner Group private military company led the way and captured the town, but victory came at a bloody price.
The Russian military and Wagner Group mercenaries lost more than 100,000 troops killed, wounded, or captured as they fought to take the town. For every 18 inches of ground, Russian forces lost one man killed or wounded. The battle for this small town in the Donbas is the longest and deadliest in the war so far.
Meanwhile, in the south, Ukrainian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. Since the start of the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military has liberated more than 70 square miles of territory in the area and continues to advance toward the main Russian defensive line.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
With Wagner Group’s mutiny over, large-scale fighting has resumed on the ground, and Russian casualties have risen. On day 488 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces lost almost 1,000 troops killed, wounded, or captured.
Since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian forces have lost close to 15,000 men. Ukrainian casualties remain unknown, but as an attacking force, it is likely that the Ukrainians have also suffered significant losses. Unlike the Russians, however, Ukraine has considerable emergency medicine capability, so more of their wounded troops survive.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Monday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 225,580 Russian troops. They also claim they have destroyed 321 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets; 308 attack and transport helicopters; 4,031 tanks; 4,055 artillery pieces; 7,820 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles; 624 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS); 18 boats and cutters; 6,751 vehicles and fuel tanks; 385 anti-aircraft batteries; 3,482 tactical unmanned aerial systems; 557 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems; and 1,259 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is currently working towards a Master’s Degree in Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Intelligence at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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