The Ukrainian military is making important progress on the ground. In the second week of the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian forces are advancing steadily over several axes of advance in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The Russian forces have been putting up a skillful fight, but the first cracks in Moscow’s defensive lines appear.
The Ukrainians Advance
Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian military has advanced in several places in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, liberating settlements along the way.
The Ukrainian military is pushing and making steady progress in several directions at the same time. Kyiv is waiting to see which offensive produces the most promise before it commits additional forces to create an operational breakthrough.
Artillery and tactical drones (especially loitering munitions) have been very active in the first days of the counteroffensive, causing casualties on both sides.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has been trying to maintain a positive outlook on the war. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been very active in the public sphere, conveying the notion that he is in charge of the defense against the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
“Shoigu has provided at least two comments on Russia’s defensive operations, including making almost certainly seriously exaggerated claims about Ukrainian losses. This contrasts with other key periods in the war when he had disappeared from public appearances,” the British Military Intelligence stated in its latest assessment of the war.
The Russian defense minister also appealed to the Russian defense and aerospace industry to redouble their efforts and produce more weapon systems.
“Shoigu is likely acutely aware of the need to maintain a positive image in the face of increasingly unmasked criticism from some fellow Russians,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Russian Casualties
On day 474 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the number of Russian casualties fell significantly from yesterday.
Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, Wagner Group private military company, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost about 550 men killed, wounded, or captured. Although a significant number of casualties, it is only about half the number of Russian losses compared to Sunday. The reason behind the drop might be a recalibration of defensive tactics.
The Kremlin has been dealing with severe force generation issues for months and likely understands that it can’t keep losing men at the pace it has since the counteroffensive began. For example, over the past week or so, the Russian forces have lost about 6,500 troops.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Monday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 216,180 Russian troops.
Destroyed equipment includes: 314 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 299 attack and transport helicopters, 3,931 tanks, 3,746 artillery pieces, 7,636 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 601 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 6,471 vehicles and fuel tanks, 362 anti-aircraft batteries, 3,307 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 510 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 1,183 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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