The Fall of Vladimir Putin Looks Likely – Sergei Eisenstein’s 1925 film Battleship Potemkin is remembered today for being one of the greatest propaganda films produced in the Soviet Union. Its story chronicled a mutiny aboard the warship against the corrupt and decadent Tsarist forces while it honored the Russian revolutionaries.
Though highly fictionalized, it captured the significance of how that mutiny served to ignite the Russian Revolution of 1905.
It resulted in more than two years of strikes and other mutines, of which Tsar Nicholas II and the monarchy narrowly survived, yet what began on the battleship arguably led to the eventual 1917 Russian Revolution that brought down the Tsar. Russia was then plunged into a long and bloody civil war – which actually only ended 100 years ago this month.
Echoes of the Revolution in 2023
This is all worth noting this week as relative normalcy returned to the streets of Moscow on Sunday. Even as Russian troops that had been deployed to protect the capital withdrew following the retreat of the rebellious Wagner Group forces, the significance of armed forces within Moscow can’t be understated.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in its latest assessment, was quick to address that the Kremlin struggled with an effective rapid response to the mercenary mutiny – likely the result of the surprise of the actions by the Wagner Group, as well as a result of the heavy losses suffered in Ukraine.
“The Kremlin struggled to cohere an effective rapid response to Wagner’s advances, highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine,” ISW said in its assessment over the weekend.
“Some Russian commentators additionally noted that the majority of personnel activated for domestic defense were conscripts and Rosgvardia units, and questioned why Russian authorities decided to mobilize conscripts instead of activating wider and more specialized security forces,” the assessment added. “Russian sources were quick to emphasize that Wagner’s armed rebellion did not impact Russian forces in Ukraine, but Wagner’s actions demonstrated Russia’s lack of reserves in rear areas.”
Putin Weakened – But How Much?
Even as a deal has been reached – in which Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led his Wagner troops in the failed uprising will go into exile in Belarus but will not face prosecution – ISW has labeled it a short-term solution. Moreover, this rebellion has exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and in Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
It is very much reminiscent of the Revolution of 1905, with a similar outcome – albeit on an abridged timeline.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been weakened perhaps even more than Tsar Nicholas II was following the Revolution of 1905.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there, but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.”
The mercenary mutiny has cast the spotlight on the deeper fractures within Russia.
“It shows a demonstrable crack in the strength of Vladimir Putin at home. It was a visible rejection of his war policy by a guy who had been his ally who had clearly gone insubordinate on him,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Russia’s War Effort
It isn’t just Putin who has been weakened by the Wagner Group mutiny. Russia’s war effort against Ukraine has also likely suffered. On Sunday, Wagner forces began to withdraw from Russia’s southern Voronezh region, and while there likely won’t be an armed conflict between the mercenaries and the Russian Army, this also means that the Russian MoD has lost a powerful ally in the ongoing conflict.
“The fact that this is, at the least, an added distraction for — for Putin, and for Russia, I think is to the advantage of Ukraine. … this just creates another problem for Putin,” Blinken added. “Sixteen months ago, Russian forces were on the doorstep of Kyiv in Ukraine, thinking they’d take the city in a matter of days, thinking they would erase Ukraine from the map as an independent country. Now, over this weekend, they’ve had to defend Moscow, Russia’s capital, against mercenaries of Putin’s own making.”
The great irony is that Prigozhin’s mutiny began because he felt Russia’s MoD had wasted the lives of his men taking the city of Bakhmut in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, and that the Kremlin had failed to support his forces. Now as a result of his uprising and the ensuing chaos it has created, the Ukrainians may have an opportunity to strike at the Russian forces even as its long-anticipated offensive has been slower going than expected.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
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