Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his run for President in late April of this year. He’s done better than many expected and is currently polling around 20% nationally. Dismissed by many mainstream pundits as a conspiracist and joke candidate, RFK Jr. actually could have a chance of winning at least several states and giving President Joe Biden a run for his money in the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries.
Why RFK Jr. Matters…Joe Biden Should Be Worried
Biden has already managed to convince the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to make South Carolina the party’s first primary state, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later. Biden insists that the decision was made in the name of “diversity” and giving more voters of color in South Carolina a voice in early party voting. However, it’s worth recalling that Biden came fourth in the Iowa caucuses and fifth in the New Hampshire primary in 2020, but scored a solid win in South Carolina.
Could, then, this be entirely strategic?
If the Granite State and Hawkeye State ignore the DNC and keep their traditional role as the first caucuses and primary in the nation, which it appears they might well do, then RFK Jr. will have a golden opportunity to score big. In fact, a sizable portion of Iowa Democrats are currently proposing to move their caucuses to the same date as the GOP in early January of next year.
This is great news for RFK Jr. and could be the start of some serious momentum and real media attention if he posts convincing wins. However, such a scenario could also cause serious state-on-state conflict given that the DNC could subsequently choose to ignore delegates from Iowa or New Hampshire for going against DNC rules.
Remember: Incumbents Can Lose Their Own Party Nomination
The idea of Biden losing his own party’s nomination to an internal challenger is still a longshot, but it does have precedent.
In the 19th Century, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, Millard Fillmore and John Tyler failed to secure renomination from their parties. Tyler, Johnson and Arthur were all VPs who became POTUS when the President died in office, leading some analysts to conclude they lost renomination as a result of never having a solid base of party support to begin with.
But the fact remains that Biden should not treat this nomination as a guarantee. If anyone can pull this kind of miracle off, it’s a Kennedy.
Despite attempts to portray him as paranoid or drunk on conspiracies, the Kennedy name is still the gold standard in Democratic politics and holds enormous sway nationally.
Furthermore, RFK Jr. is rising in popularity at a time when Americans are increasingly skeptical of partisan politics and still flustered and angry about the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine pressure.
Pat Buchanan’s 1992 run to challenge Republican President George HW Bush for the GOP leadership comes to mind as well. While Buchanan didn’t win, he shifted the entire conversation and stirred up a fiery strain of populist revolt which many pundits note was a precursor of Trump’s 2016 victory.
RFK Jr. Deserves A Chance To Be Heard
The Democrats should consider holding debates and giving RFK Jr. more of a chance to be heard. Their current decision not to hold debates in the 2024 cycle is not a smart move. The perception that Biden is being shielded from criticism due to potential onstage gaffes only increases by not holding debates, as does the outsider appeal of RFK Jr.
Not only does he have the chance to take Iowa and New Hampshire, RFK Jr. has the potential to seriously crash the party’s unity and embarrass Joe Biden to the point of chipping away significantly at the Democrat’s share of the vote even if and when Biden is nominated.
Ignoring RFK Jr. or dismissing him as a paranoid “anti-vaccine” activist will not make him go away.
Paul Brian is an author and freelance journalist who has reported for Reuters, BBC and Foreign Policy, and contributed to the Spectator, the Federalist and the American Conservative. He has covered global events from Europe, the former Soviet Union and the Middle East to South America.
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