The Ukrainian military continues to make slow but steady progress in the fourth week of the counteroffensive.
And for the first time in nine years, Ukrainian forces have liberated land that was lost in the initial Russian invasion in 2014.
Liberating Ground in Ukraine
Over the past few days, Ukrainian paratroopers have made advances near Donetsk City in the Donbas, liberating small settlements.
“This is one of the first instances since Russia’s February 2022 invasion that Ukrainian forces have highly likely recaptured an area of territory occupied by Russia since 2014,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
In the first phase of the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military has been searching for the weak spots on the extensive Russian defensive line. In action, that means several probes in different parts of the contract line to pressure Moscow’s frontline units and stretch out its reserves. At some point, the Russian defensive line will start to crack. And without flexible reserves to plug in the gap, the crack will start to grow larger. That is when the Ukrainians will likely commit their elite heavy brigades to turn that crack into an operational breakthrough.
“Recent multiple concurrent Ukrainian assaults throughout the Donbas have likely overstretched Donetsk People’s Republic and Chechen forces operating in this area,” the British Military Intelligence added.
In psychological terms, the liberation of territory lost since 2014 signifies Kyiv’s intention to take this war to the end and liberate all lands that are under Russian occupation, including the Crimean Peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Crimea is out of bounds.
The Wagner Group mutiny has left Putin weakened, and he can’t afford any other humiliations on the ground. It is thus very likely that the Russian military will try to hold on to Crimea at all costs, potentially even threatening the use of a tactical nuclear weapon or sabotaging the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Russian Casualties
On day 489 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian forces continue to take significant casualties.
The artillery duel between the two sides continues with little respite. Over the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian military claims to have destroyed almost 30 Russian artillery systems. And in the past five days, the Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed more than 160 Russian artillery weapons. Even if a fraction of these claims are accurate, the Russian forces would have taken a significant hit on their long-range fires capability.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Tuesday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 226,170 Russian troops, destroyed 321 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 308 attack and transport helicopters, 4,036 tanks, 4,083 artillery pieces, 7,834 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 626 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 6,772 vehicles and fuel tanks, 386 anti-aircraft batteries, 3,492 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 563 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 1,261 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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