The Ukrainian military is still looking for a weak spot in Russian defenses before it unleashes its mechanized reserves.
Kyiv’s counteroffensive has reached its third week, and progress has been slow. Yet according to former senior military officers, the Ukrainian military could liberate Crimea by the end of the summer.
Crimea and the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges closed his long career in the military as the commanding general of all U.S. Army forces in Europe.
In a recent interview with Newsweek, he provided some insight on the Ukrainian counteroffensive and what Kyiv needs to finish the job.
“This is not going to be ‘Pac Man;’ this is going to be, at some point, a breakthrough. I’m not sure when or where, but at some point, you get through these defenses, and then the whole momentum and nature of things can change,” Hodges added.
The Ukrainian military has trained and equipped up to 12 mechanized and armored brigades to take part in the counteroffensive. Thus far, Kyiv has committed a fraction of that force. It is waiting for the first cracks to appear before it throws in its reserves. But to help Kyiv’s forces achieve meaningful progress once there is an operational breakthrough, Hodges argues that the U.S. should provide additional military aid to Ukraine, including the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS.
With a range of almost 200 miles, the ATACMS can take out Russian logistical targets and command and control hubs with pinpoint precision. A Ukrainian push to the Crimean Peninsula would require the disruption of Russian supply lines and fortifications. Munitions like the ATACMS can do that.
High Stakes
For Kyiv, there is a lot at stake with this counteroffensive. For months, the West has been sending Ukraine important military aid to help build the operation. The Ukrainians are now using large numbers of main battle tanks, artillery systems, long-range missiles, infantry fighting vehicles, and drones, among other Western weapons systems.
The West, moreover, has trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to take part in the counteroffensive, thus helping constitute the 12 armored brigades that are taking part in the the Ukrainian military’s counteroffensive or waiting in reserve.
With so many forces and systems committed to the counteroffensive, Kyiv must produce some results to appease its Western backers and maintain the momentum of support that has ebbed and flowed since the war started almost 17 months ago in the early morning hours of Feb. 24, 2022.
Indeed, the Russian leadership is likely trying to freeze the conflict and prolong the fighting for as much as possible in an attempt to tire Ukraine’s Western backers and block the country’s economy from restarting.
“The Russians will wait for us to lose interest. They’ll be able to launch attacks from Crimea; Ukraine will never be able to rebuild its economy because the Russian navy will be blocking the Azov Sea as well as Odesa and Mykolaiv,” Hodges said.
Even if the Ukrainian military’s counteroffensive doesn’t produce the intended results, Kyiv will continue to fight. However, success now will save lives and money later.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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