The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to make slow but steady progress.
With each passing day, the Russian defenses are weakening, and the first gaps in Moscow’s extensive fortifications begin to emerge.
Over the past few days, the Ukrainian military has advanced around Bakhmut in the Donbas.
Fighting Around Bakhmut in Ukraine
During the last week, Ukrainian units have made considerable advances on the flanks of Bakhmut, threatening to encircle the town.
“Ukrainian forces have made steady gains to both the north and south of the Russian-held town. Russian defenders are highly likely struggling with poor morale, a mix of disparate units, and a limited ability to find and strike Ukrainian artillery,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
There was a lull in heavy fighting around the town in June, but now combat has rekindled, with some of the heaviest fighting of the war taking place in the area. The Ukrainian forces are using a mix of mechanized brigades and long-range fires to attrite the Russian forces. Ukrainian artillery is particularly deadly.
“The Russian leadership almost certainly sees it as politically unacceptable to concede Bakhmut, which has a symbolic weight as one of the few Russian gains in the last 12 months. However, there are highly likely few additional reserves to commit to the sector,” the British Military Intelligence added.
The Russian forces only captured the ruined town in May after more than a year of fighting and approximately 100,000 casualties. To offer some perspective on the toll the battle took on the Russian forces, Moscow lost a soldier killed or wounded for every 18 inches of ground it captured.
A potential defeat in Bakhmut would be a significant blow to the Russian military and President Vladimir Putin. The blow would be harder for the Russian leader since it was the mutinous Wagner Group private military company that had captured the town.
Russian Casualties
On day 501 of the Russian invasion, the Russian military continued to bleed men left and right. Over the past 24 hours, the Russian forces lost more than 600 men killed, wounded, or captured.
Since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russian forces have lost more than 20,000 men. U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to send Ukraine cluster munitions will likely increase the number of Russian casualties over the next few weeks. These munitions are particularly deadly against infantry, even if the troops are dug in trenches.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Saturday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 233,440 Russian troops.
Equipment destroyed 322 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 309 attack and transport helicopters, 4,074 tanks, 4,346 artillery pieces, 7,753 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 661 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 6,914 vehicles and fuel tanks, 410 anti-aircraft batteries, 3,666 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 619 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 1,271 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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