Russian President Vladimir Putin has been increasingly compared to Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, and apparently, the two were a lot more alike but in a most unexpected way. Nearly 82 years to the day, Putin reacted almost exactly as Stalin did in the face of the unexpected.
On June 22, 1941, at 3 am local time, Nazi Germany launched an attack on Soviet-occupied Poland breaking the nonaggression pact that had been signed just two years earlier. The Soviet Red Army was caught off guard, and at first, Stalin insisted the attacks were just a provocation triggered by some rogue German generals.
The Soviet leader was reported close to a nervous breakdown, and the losses were so humiliating that he retreated to his summer home for several days.
Fast forward to June 23, 2023, and Putin was also left essentially paralyzed by the seemingly unexpected Wagner Group mutiny. Putin was so blindsided that – much like Stalin – he was unable to issue any orders. Moreover, as with the Soviet dictator eight decades ago, it proved to be a severe threat to a leader in Moscow who had ruled for decades.
Failure to See the Warning Signs
In hindsight, it seems almost obvious that Germany was planning to invade the Soviet Union. Both sides had massed huge numbers of forces on their respective borders, but Stalin was simply unable to believe that the Germans would attack.
Likewise, Western intelligence officials reported that the Kremlin had several days of advanced warning that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin would stage a mutiny. For weeks he had publicly criticized the Russian Army and the Russian Ministry of Defense. That included long rants on the Telegram social messaging app.
“Putin had time to take the decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organisers,” a European security official, who wished to remain anonymous, told The Washington Post on Tuesday. “Then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels… There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time, they did not know how to react.”
Gennady Gudkov, a former colonel in the Russian security services who is now an opposition politician in exile, also told the paper of record that Putin took a page from Stalin’s playbook.
While Stalin retreated to his summer home and drank heavily, Putin “just hid,” and for hours was simply unable to deal with the events as they unfolded.
The Drive to Moscow
The German Army infamously failed to reach Moscow, the goal of its Operation Barbarossa in 1941. After months of heavy fighting, the Germans were stopped outside the city, and eventually driven back.
The Wagner Group’s uprising – which set off Russia’s most serious security crisis in decades – saw its forces able to advance within 500 km of the Russian capital. Yet, instead of months of fighting, the mutiny ended just hours later, as Prigozhin agreed to stand down in exchange for immunity in exile as part of a Belarus-brokered deal.
Stalin Survived – Putin May Not
Moscow may not have fallen to the attackers in 1941 or 2023, but there are some differences too. Stalin eventually recovered and he played a crucial role in leading the Soviet Union through the rest of the “Great Patriotic War” and to the eventual defeat of Nazi Germany.
On the other hand, Putin, who has failed to deliver victory over Ukraine, had already been weakened by the war while the mutiny has only made matters worse.
Gudkov told The Washington Post that Putin’s inaction during the Wagner Group’s brief rebellion severely damaged his reputation with top Russian officials.
“Putin showed himself to be a person who is not able to make serious, important and quick decisions in critical situations,” he said, adding, “This was not understood by most of the Russian population. But it was very well understood by Putin’s elite. He is no longer the guarantor of their security and the preservation of the system.”
It is still the war in Ukraine that could be Putin’s downfall.
“Russian elites know full well that the war was a terrible blunder and is going badly. They have not been inclined to do much about it because they fear Putin and a chaotic world without him,” Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of War Studies at King’s College London, wrote for Foreign Affairs, adding, “Putin can simply try to hang on, but given the mounting pressures, he needs a strategy to show that Russia still has a path to victory.”
All of this was true before the mutiny, but his inactions during the attempted coup further signal that Putin’s days are truly numbered.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
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