Yevgeny Prigozhin, the one-time confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin who led a brief rebellion against Putin in June 2023, reportedly was on the private jet allegedly shot down with a Russian defense missile while flying over the Tver region, between Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Much will be said about Prigozhin’s colorful life: from restauranteur to Putin person chef to mercenary leader and businessman. Many will say his death does not surprise: no one crosses Putin, an ex-KGB operative, and survives. The real question was whether Prigozhin’s end would come via polonium tea, a high rise elevator shaft, or a surprisingly rickety stair.
What Happens Next in Putin’s Russia?
The question now is what next? Prigozhin inspired loyalty. How else can anyone explain the willingness of nine other people to get on an aircraft with a dead man walking?
There are three possibilities in the weeks to come that will determine Russia’s future.
The first is that Wagner shifts its loyalty to Putin. There has long been analysis that Prigozhin is more the figurehead and investor than the group’s leader. If Wagner leadership lays elsewhere, it may not be a stretch to accept that they might shift their loyalty to Putin. As the late Al Qaeda leader Usama Bin Laden once quipped, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse.” That logic holds true with Russia. Putin is undoubtedly strong, at least in the sense that he continues to call the shots and others continue to die as a result.
The second is that Wagner dissolves. This is less likely for two reasons: Wagner is a lucrative business. It has taken over the gold mines of the Central African Republic, and may soon get control over Niger’s uranium mines. The group also gives Putin plausible deniability for some of the dirty work he wants done.
The third is the most dangerous for Putin. Prigozhin was not alone in his June 2023 rebellion. Hundreds of battle-hardened Wagner veterans may feel they have no choice but to go to ground and avenge their late leader against the man who almost certainly ordered his death. If Russians worried about Ukrainian drones striking Crimea, Moscow, or other Russian cities, they may have just unleashed the Kraken. Putin may be out of reach as he hides behind the thick walls of his billion dollar-palaces, but not every Russian official is so lucky.
Imagine battle-hardened veterans hunting down policemen, mayors, deputies, and ministers throughout the country. Should Wagner go this route, it will slowly erode the foundation of Russia’s stability and bring a taste of civil war-era Lebanon to the country. Certainly, if Putin cronies begin to drop like flies, the image of invincibility surrounding the Russian leader will fade. The strong horse could become a hobbled pony.
Prigozhin may be dead, but Putin may soon come to rue his legacy.
Author Expertise
Now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Dr. Michael Rubin is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005).
Jacksonian Libertarian
August 23, 2023 at 4:54 pm
Purged by the poisoner.
Sofronie the Monk
August 23, 2023 at 5:38 pm
Let me guess: Prigozhin was too fat for the aircraft window, he got stuck in it, and Putin lost patience…
Arash
August 23, 2023 at 8:11 pm
“Wagner Mercenaries Will Determine Russia’s Future”.
Yes a group of a few thousands ( many of whom like Putin anyways) , are going to topple the guy who has a higher approval rating than any American president ever had, in a country of 150 million people, with a several million large regular military!
Russians are a wise and learned people. They know a great leader when they see one. Mr Putin is here to stay!
Johnny Ray
August 24, 2023 at 6:17 am
Seems to me Wagner is kaputt!
And, at least temporarily, Putin has regained his image as the tough mob boss.
Nonetheless, Russia’s war on Ukraine is going un-well and the lesser gangster elite are restless.
Historically, it would seem Russia is about due for a change in leadership. I doubt a civil war is coming. More likely the most powerful gang bosses will choose a replacement, maybe by the next election in Feb ’24.
TheDon
August 24, 2023 at 7:42 am
Russia has a very disturbing future.
The train and send prisoners to war. When they return, organized crime will flourish the country, and, judges and jury’s should worry about revenge.
In addition, the communist leaders war against Ukraine, which has common ancestry and family tells how isolated and paranoid the leadership is.
They trade family for a false belief they are safer with China. In a few years, as China floods their market with cheap goods, and decides they need more farmland,or oil, Russia is an easy target with no world support.
The future was changed on the day Putin launched his plan without consulting the Military.
It not only impacts Russians but is a serious blow to the orthodox faith, splitting between countries, and continued loss of parishioners killed in action or moving out.
Without Russian world cooperation, no one will buy goods except oil and gas.
Its quite a gamble.
Putin has thrown the dice and cant admit his error.
Hopefully Generals, the population recognize the predicament.
The US isnt as secure either. A strong Russia could be a good balance to world stability with real cooperation.
The US needs to focus more on developing countries, Haiti, south america, africa, syria, instead of sanctioning all.
NAFTA should be restarted and production distributed away from a single source, china.
Single source is a recipe for trouble and congress takes the easy out.
Aleksandr
August 24, 2023 at 9:35 am
I like to read American newspapers and their authors. It seems that many authors are not engaged there, they would like to write fiction. A complete lack of understanding of what is happening in Russia. Wagner’s fighters will never hunt police officers, since many police officers served or are serving in Wagner, on a par with former prisoners, and they receive money from the Russian budget. Stories that Ukraine is winning are also doubtful, and it’s just an understanding that the Western media are blatantly lying. As much as a number of authors would not like what is happening in Libya, this will not happen.
Jim
August 24, 2023 at 9:39 am
Very few people in Russia or anywhere else will miss Prigozhin.
Graveyards are full of “indispensable men” who turned out to be dispensable and were replaced by other men who got the job done.
George Gordon Byron
August 25, 2023 at 4:25 am
Your “And, at least temporarily, Putin regained his image as a brutal mafia boss”?
Mafia bosses, US presidents: Trump arrested, and Biden under investigation. Although both would have been imprisoned long ago if they were ordinary citizens.