Did a Russian S-200 missile strike an Israeli Air Force F-35 a few years ago? The question has been lingering for six years, some would say unanswered, as rumors continue to swirl.
While Isreal has denied this, here is a rundown of some of the datapoints that are out there.
The Incident
On October 16, 2017, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IAF to bomb Syria as reciprocation for Syria’s targeting of an Israeli spy plane.
The IAF deployed its Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
And then, something went wrong.
As Syria tells the story, they hit and damaged one of the IAF’s F-35s. Israel, on the other hand reported that one of its F-35s had been damaged in a bird strike. “During a training sortie two hits were found on the plane, following ac collision wit a bird. After an evaluation and assessment of the damage conducted together with the manufacturer – Lockheed Martin, the plane was sent for normal maintenance and repair. It will return to full service in the next few days.”
It seems likely that the Syrians and Israelis were referring to the same airframe incident, and were offering different accounts of how that airframe came to be damaged.
If that’s the case, then presumably, one account is accurate and one account is fictional.
But which?
Missile or Bird Strike on F-35?
I won’t commit to a hard stance here because I don’t have all the information – no one does. And clearly Israel denies it, and most experts argue the missile never hit the target, so to speak.
What I do know is that the S-200 was built in the 1960s and is ill-equipped to match against modern stealth fighters.
The S-200 was viable against contemporary airframes, which included the stealth-less F-4, F-111, and Saab Viggen.
The F-35 on the other hand is the most expensive defense platform ever developed – designed to bypass modern anti-air defense systems, penetrate contested air space, and avoid surface-to-air missiles.
Simply put: The S-200 and the F-35 are from different epochs of military technology. The match-up is not appropriate.
That being said, the S-200 is a surface-to-air missile, a kinetic machine built to defeat enemy aircraft. It’s not impossible that the S-200 connected with the F-35. Further, the timing of the dual reports is curious. The Syrians seem to have made their S-200 claim before the Israeli bird strike claim. It’d be one thing if the Israelis reported a busted jet and the Syrians swooped in to claim credit for the damage sustained. But the inverse raises questions; the Syrians made the claim first, making the Israeli claim seem a little suspicious.
The Israelis do have an incentive to lie. The F-35 reflects a significant investment on behalf of Israeli taxpayers. That such a significant investment would be vulnerable to Soviet-made, sixty-year-old SAM tech is embarrassing.
Not only is it embarrassing, but it also suggests general vulnerability to a populace that is vigilantly concerned with its own existence. The Syrian’s F-35 claims suggest a chink in the armor that the Israeli government would do well to downplay.
So, indeed, the Israelis have an incentive to spin the story.
That is a long way of saying I don’t know what happened.
However, the expert consensus says no F-35 was hit. The Israelis who do know aren’t likely to disclose the truth anytime soon either.
So, the mystery that has clouded this incident since 2017 will likely continue in perpetuity.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
From the Vault
The Navy Sent 4 Battleships To Attack North Korea
‘Sir, We Hit a Russian Submarine’: A U.S. Navy Sub Collided with a Nuclear Attack Sub
