Russian soldiers are starting to prefer prison rather than fighting in Ukraine – Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be giving up the fight to occupy Ukraine.
Still, it is apparent many of his soldiers do not share the same sentiment and are seemingly preferring prison rather than being sent back to fight in the war.
Putin’s New Ukraine Problem
According to a recent intelligence report from the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense, several Russian soldiers were recently convicted and sentenced to prison for refusing to obey orders and return to the Russian front lines in Ukraine.
It cited a news outlet that said Russia has been sending as many as 100 soldiers a week to jail for refusing to continue fighting in Ukraine.
The ministry estimates that if the trend continues, Russia will have incarcerated roughly 5,200 soldiers for refusing to fight.
The ministry added that the convictions are an indication of the degrading morale of Russian troops, which are brought about by several factors that include poor training, a lack or loss of motivation to continue fighting, and the highly stressful circumstances many Russian forces face on the front lines.
Russia’s Ukraine Problems Get Worse
Findings by the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) agree with the assessment.
An excerpt from a recent report from the group reads, “Russian frontline units, particularly in southern Ukraine, have frequently struggled with degraded morale following Ukrainian strikes on rear areas.”
The report added that such a trend poses a significant risk to Russian forces because “if one unit under pressure breaks,” the panic could spread to other units and “significantly reduce the combat effectiveness of other Russian forces.”
ISW also reported that Ukrainian forces are aware of Russia’s morale issues and are “setting conditions to increase the likelihood of such a development.”
Discontent with the war effort
The ISW also reports growing discontent among members of the Russian military blogging community.
While they essentially still support the war effort, recent and frequent drone strikes in Moscow have raised concerns that Russian officials aren’t concerned about the drone strikes in the capital since these attacks do not directly affect them or their livelihoods.
These “milbloggers,” as the ISW calls them, have called for the Russian military to “target the families, homes, and other properties of Ukrainian decisionmakers” in retaliation for the drone attacks in the capital.
It is also noteworthy to mention that discontent with Russia’s military strategy and tactics in Ukraine was behind the short-lived uprising of the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, who recently died in a plane crash with nine other people.
Prigozhin, who headed and founded the paramilitary group Wagner, staged a rebellion in an effort to remove Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
While technically a private group, Wagner was state-funded, was part of the initial Russian assault against Ukraine, and was arguably an integral part of the Russian offensive until their split with Moscow.
Putin and Russian officials have denied any involvement in Prigozhin’s death. However, U.S. intelligence reports suggest that given Putin’s history of silencing critics, foul play likely was involved in the end of the Wagner boss and one-time Putin ally.
Tim Ramos has written for various publications, corporations, and organizations – covering everything from finance, politics, travel, entertainment, and sports – in Asia and the U.S. for more than 10 years.
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