Late Wednesday afternoon outside of Moscow, a business jet owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group private military corporation, was reportedly shot down shortly after departing Moscow. Russia’s transport agency stated that Prigozhin was on the plane, although as this goes to press, U.S. intelligence officials say they cannot confirm his demise.
If confirmed, the death of the controversial figure is sure to have reverberations for the war in Ukraine, as well as within Russia itself. The first question most are asking: Was Prigozhin assassinated by Putin for his role in a June coup attempt?
According to eyewitnesses, there were two loud “pops” in the air before the plane could be seen in freefall, trailing smoke as it neared the ground. The business jet owned by Prigozhin had just left the Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow, heading for St. Petersburg. Reportedly, there were also other Wagner commanders on board who had just returned from Africa. As of press time, there were conflicting accounts as to whether Prigozhin’s presence on the destroyed plane had been confirmed, or if he had in fact been on another Wagner-owned jet that also took off from Moscow at about the same time.
But whether Prigozhin was on the downed aircraft or not, it appears clear from the video evidence that the jet was knocked out of the sky by either an anti-aircraft missile or a bomb that might have been on board. The first culprit on nearly everyone’s mind, of course, is Russian President Vladimir Putin.
When Prigozhin led his failed march on Moscow in late June, Putin had harsh words for Wagner’s rebellion, which he called a treasonous “stab in the back” to Russia. Those who organized the insurrection, Putin darkly warned, “who raised arms against their fellow military comrades will answer for it.” Two days later, however, Putin seemed to soften his stance and gave permission for Prigozhin and his Wagner troops to withdraw and move to Belarus.
Politico reported that on June 29, Putin secretly met with Prigozhin in Moscow to clear the air. In early July, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the meeting, saying it had included 35 people, including “all the commanders of the military detachments.” If Putin had wanted to kill Prigozhin or his senior Wagner commanders, that would have been the ideal moment. Instead, Putin seemed to give Prigozhin his blessing to move to Minsk and begin training Belarusian soldiers for possible future combat in Ukraine.
In early August, Wagner started significantly expanding its operations in Africa. The PMC was conducting operations and training for African governments in the Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, and other countries. All of these activities, whether in Belarus or Africa, were beneficial to Putin and Russia.
However, owing to Putin’s very well-earned reputation for killing opponents, he will come under considerable suspicion, including among many in Russia. Prigozhin has a loyal following in Russia. Many view him as a war hero, one of the few commanders to have tactical success throughout the war. If later official information comes out of Moscow revealing that Putin had nothing to do with Prigozhin’s death, it is likely that some number of Wagner fighters won’t believe the government. At the very least it will be a divisive topic in Russia.
There is also another potential culprit, however: Ukraine. In recent days, Ukrainian sabotage groups are reported to have been active inside Russian borders, launching drones to attack and destroy Russian fighter aircraft at their bases, causing sometimes spectacular explosions. Ukraine has received thousands of mobile Stinger anti-aircraft missiles from the West that could have taken down Prigozhin’s jet.
At this time there is little more than speculation about what reportedly brought down Prigozhin’s plane. As investigations and inquiries unfold in the coming hours and days, more information may be revealed. Yet under the volatile conditions related to the June revolt, the war in Ukraine, Wagner’s actions in Africa, the training of Belarusian soldiers, and Prigozhin’s role in killing many Ukrainian soldiers, there is a long list of those who may have wished Prigozhin harm.
It will be no surprise, then, if Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death is just as controversial as his life.
Author Expertise
Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” We are proud to have Davis as a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
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